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Post by wiseclerk on Sept 22, 2017 8:47:56 GMT
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Post by d_saver on Sept 22, 2017 9:58:07 GMT
This prompted me to take an early look at my own 1 year investment, coming up in a couple months. I wanted to see what the return might be over 1 year, after being fully deployed. Might I enquire approximately how many loans you actually got deployed into, with 1k? I took a look at the thread, but not very good with German! I'm just wondering if you got unlucky with sample size. I opened an account with BM November '16. I will admit this is not my best performing investment, but it is hands off and a sector of my portfolio. I have similar investments in Assetz, Octopus, etc. They seem to provide a similar return, though obviously via a very different platform (and perhaps asset). My account is a bit larger than yours, and perhaps should offer a better distribution of loans. I have not attempted to add funds to BM since April this year. My account has been at ~98% deployment since then, apart from one recent blip where it spent the last few weeks down at ~90%, but is now back to 99% invested. Although this cash drag happens and it is sad to see, I must admit that I experience the same when I get repayments and self invest whilst waiting for the next decent opportunity, so am not sure why many complain about it. It is true I can shift funds into interest bearing accounts (assetz qaa for example), but often that requires a few days notice and some of the lending opps are now or never, so I tolerate it somewhat on BM. BM don't IMO make it easy for you to self calculate your actual return. I suggested they might offer a CSV download of your positions and/or a detailed statement some time ago to aid this, but it still seems not possible. I had no luck (or got fed up) trying to cut and paste into a spreadsheet to properly calculate it. If I look simply at the 'nett return' figure, the amount paid to me in interest, minus fees and losses (nil), vs the amount I paid in, my return is 4.28%, which is not far from your own figure. Now, that does not factor for the scaling up of investment during the first few months, nor the cash drag whilst the account was fully deployed up until April. This probably has a fairly significant effect, so I believe I have faired better than you, for whatever reason. About 15% of that interest is accrued and not yet paid (and might not be of course). I have experienced no losses to date, though there are 5 items on my 'watchlist'. These are amounts that are late, or have some issue, though that is all, so far. Nothing officially in 'default'. The amount represents 2.86% of my investment. The headline rate quoted for my account on the BM site is around 8.8% and has been for quite some time. It does not appear to reflect my actual or forecasted return, though I will admit I have obviously not calculated my return properly here. If I could get a detailed statement in text format, instead of the paginated html one on the site, I could calculate the return accurately. I think this is not the sort of client BM is looking for (though I have no beef with them and fully admire what they are trying to do with the platform). I'm guessing the real return (for me) is somewhere around 5-6% (pre tax). Knock off a couple percent if some of that 'watchlist' turns to irrecoverable. If BM were happy to provide the detailed statement or do those calcs for me ( ), I'd be happy to share an accurate update, now, or when the full 'fully invested' year is up. I'm a little disappointed in the return, but the platform is what it is and is in the 'hand off' category.
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Post by wiseclerk on Sept 22, 2017 10:25:37 GMT
Might I enquire approximately how many loans you actually got deployed into, with 1k? I took a look at the thread, but not very good with German! I'm just wondering if you got unlucky with sample size. A little more than 110 different loans. Initially BM invested my money in 10 GBP chunks. But then it switched to 20 GBP chunks, and most of my loan parts were that size. Actually it is pretty easy as there was only 1 deposit and two withdrawals. Since I know the amounts and dates of these as well as the remaining amount stuck, it is very simple doing it in Excel with the XIRR function. See also: www.p2p-banking.com/investor-calculating-yield-with-xirr/I agree that it is hands off
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2017 17:04:12 GMT
For people with money held for a year plus, is there anyone who has achieved the (now) 6.5% rate that would be the headline after fees? Or even better, anyone who has achieved over that rate?
If the target is 8%, and the fees are 1.5%, then I would expect there to be people doing better than 6.5% to average out with people such as you above who are not getting anywhere near that. At 3-4% it won't be long with interest rate rises coming that I might as well just lock it in a safe account.
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Post by eascogo on Sept 22, 2017 19:48:52 GMT
For people with money held for a year plus, is there anyone who has achieved the (now) 6.5% rate that would be the headline after fees? Or even better, anyone who has achieved over that rate? If the target is 8%, and the fees are 1.5%, then I would expect there to be people doing better than 6.5% to average out with people such as you above who are not getting anywhere near that. At 3-4% it won't be long with interest rate rises coming that I might as well just lock it in a safe account. Well I did earn the headline rate but was invested for less than a year: £1,000 for 9 months, give or take a day. Got £49 interest so 49/9 x 12 = 6.5% p.a. Given initial drag to full investment (about 1 month) this fits well with the headline rate before fee of 8% and a bit shown at the time.
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guff
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Post by guff on Sept 23, 2017 20:41:53 GMT
Two accounts topped up to £5k over about 12 months (so adversely affected by cash drag) showing an XIRR of 6.4% and 6.7%.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2017 14:10:31 GMT
Oh that's good to know that people are getting reasonable returns too.
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Post by stevefindlay on Sept 25, 2017 9:35:15 GMT
There is a range in the returns across clients, a combination o:
- the range of allocation speeds (discussed elsewhere); - the range of the rates in each loan (although this isn't so great); and - whether a client has been unlucky in achieving more than the average crystallised loss rate (the average is 0.4%).
We would like for everyone to get the same return, but are unable to structure our operations as a fund which would enable this - as there are liquidity, costs and other issues with having clients come into a fund. Nonetheless we are working at getting everyone closer to the average return - which is 6.5-7% after fees; 8% gross - for those that have been with us for a minimum of 12 months.
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dermot
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Post by dermot on Oct 10, 2017 9:53:13 GMT
My "Headline" rate is 9.28% today and has been above 9% for much of the year.
Fees and a couple of small defaults knock that down a bit, but still not too bad.
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Post by propman on Oct 13, 2017 16:07:36 GMT
I obviously fall into the "unlucky" camp. To date crystallised losses are 30% of my net interest, defaults a further 59% and watchlist a further 42%, so I expect a net loss.
- PM
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Nov 19, 2017 11:04:17 GMT
I obviously fall into the "unlucky" camp. To date crystallised losses are 30% of my net interest, defaults a further 59% and watchlist a further 42%, so I expect a net loss.
- PM This sounds poor. How long was it before you were able to establish this loss on BM? Mine looks good if I get the return-fees currently stated. I'm interested to know at what point does one find out the level of default?
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amphoria
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Post by amphoria on Nov 20, 2017 11:05:18 GMT
I obviously fall into the "unlucky" camp. To date crystallised losses are 30% of my net interest, defaults a further 59% and watchlist a further 42%, so I expect a net loss.
- PM This sounds poor. How long was it before you were able to establish this loss on BM? Mine looks good if I get the return-fees currently stated. I'm interested to know at what point does one find out the level of default? In response to propman. You do appear to be "unlucky" as, after 16 months, my crystallised losses are 11% of net interest and my defaults are 38%. I have only had one crystallised loss to date which was an invoice discounting loan. In response to zlb. The purchase date of my loans in default are mostly in the range of Aug to Nov 2016, but one was bought in Sep 2017. They are all of 12 months duration apart from one which is 9 months. So, as expected, most loans default once they become due for repayment.
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ton27
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Post by ton27 on Nov 20, 2017 13:23:08 GMT
I first invested 12 months ago. My crystallised losses are about 9% of net interest with default at just under 40%.
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Brainer
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Post by Brainer on Nov 21, 2017 15:40:52 GMT
Looks like I'm one of the lucky ones so far. Crystallised losses 5.5% of net interest, a further 12% in default.
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Post by stevefindlay on Nov 24, 2017 8:44:04 GMT
Total write offs to date are 0.37%.
5.2% of all loans go into the definition of Watch list or Default.
So, if you have a loan in default, the expected loss percentage of those loans, on average, is 7%. Or, put the other way, the expected recovery from loans in default is 93% (this excludes any interest which may be received on top).
Recovery varies a lot by loan type: - property backed loans that have gone into default have had 100% recovery to date - recovery for invoice discounting and corporate loans is lower - closer to 75%.
Finally, if you have a smaller amount invested (and are paying a 1.5% fee) then your net return after losses (after 12 months) should be 6.5%; with losses at 0.37%, or 5-6% of your return.
As discussed elsewhere, we would prefer that everyone gets the average, but this isn't currently possible under the current structure.
We are exploring ways to introduce a sister product which is simpler and has more certainty over the return.
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