ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Oct 10, 2017 13:09:33 GMT
Ok, but I thought the statements are not correct until up to two months after the date. So September not accurate until end November. In other words I thought the August statement is the latest accurate statement available. Or am I being thick?
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Oct 10, 2017 13:48:53 GMT
Ref BrianC above - totally agree and I am doing exactly the same....also looks as if their system has mega problems which really is not good enough for a financial platform
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Oct 10, 2017 16:21:36 GMT
Ok, but I thought the statements are not correct until up to two months after the date. So September not accurate until end November. In other words I thought the August statement is the latest accurate statement available. Or am I being thick? No you're not being thick, it's as clear as mud. As I understand it, the statement data is just behind schedule, but once published should be accurate. So, under the statements section your investment total should read: "Investment total (<date>)" - in my case that now says 30th September where i think a day or two ago it said 30th August. I was prompted to look today i think by the fishyhooky 's post in the other active Zopa thread running at the moment. At least I hope that's the case, publishing late is one thing, publishing entirely wrong is quite another!
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Post by newlender on Oct 10, 2017 16:31:46 GMT
Problem is that when it's correct we are seeing negative returns for September. My Z+ is terrible and my Investing side looks like a disaster area as far as making any money is concerned. I know they've re-vamped Z+ for new investments but what about the rest of us. Yes, I know, caveat emptor..........but it makes me wonder if the whole concept was flawed from the outset. Many of my defaulters have paid back virtually nothing before defaulting so I hope that Zopa are re-thinking how they do their checks. If my ISA starts defaulting that will be a sign to start drawing down. I'm only in Core over there so here's hoping.
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Post by propman on Oct 10, 2017 17:17:11 GMT
I don't think the Statement does show the full September position despite saying it is up to 29/9 (last working day in September). I have a similar amount of interest received as usual per the monthly download, but around half per the summary statement. I don't have the split, but the disclosed defaults are less than half the interest due on Plus for the month.
- PM
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 10, 2017 18:00:53 GMT
As replied earlier YES! In fact I've had expected returns sInce I first invested in plus. I would imagine my average investment has been £30,000 in plus in £10 loans. See my post above for interest in August ( although this includes Classic the size of return means plus must be functioning for me.) As I said in that post I am now withdrawing (not selling) funds because of zopa' lower future projected returns. Thanks for info, although I was asking about September only, and Z+ only (I'm not sure how easy it is to delineate the two if you have both though). Are you able to see what your Z+ only returns for Sept are? I started to try and get a figure but at the moment my ability to split the details into Plus without Classic is limited since Zopa mangled the ID's and correlating against statements and jointing statements to loanbook is not working. I never really wanted to see the deal separately at a monthly point so I never split up my figures. For anyone who is interested and doesn't already know ( i've mentioned it a few times in other threads.) I too am a long term zopa lender and have dabbled across all the relevant loan types since late 2006. At present I have picked up a number of defaults over the last few months that unfortunately skew the numbers at the time they arrive if you right them off as I do straight away. This makes working at the month level is not that realistic as like others have said defaulters are not necessarily non payers persee. That said I also have tried to recently mitigate the defaults by lending at £10 levels. My relend rates were always at £10 level. My "Investment" lending is approx 90% classic and 10% plus. These are my 12 month interest result figures (from statements data since Jan 2015 they will be a little bit skewed as the Interest is a true 12 months return and the defaults are in the actual months. In September I will not see the full impact of the 2 defaults I have there until I see 12 months later result. Month__deflt YrRtn
Jan-16 06.79 5.35%
Feb-16 00.00 5.39%
Mar-16 11.89 5.40%
Apr-16 00.00 5.38%
May-16 08.96 5.36%
Jun-16 00.00 5.25%
Jul-16 00.00 5.31%
Aug-16 07.09 5.35%
Sep-16 11.46 5.37%
Oct-16 03.50 5.30%
Nov-16 01.40 5.30%
Dec-16 00.00 5.34%
Jan-17 00.00 5.32%
Feb-17 00.00 5.43%
Mar-17 00.00 5.41%
Apr-17 00.00 5.52%
May-17 09.51 5.52%
Jun-17 00.00 5.61%
Jul-17 09.85 5.62%
Aug-17 09.87 5.45%
So to clarify the default in Jan-16 is new that month the return is for the 12 months to Jan-16. So the default in Jan-2016 does not start to affect the rtn figure until Jan 2017. Not ideal as I can't see much effect until 12 months after a given return. Not sure if this helps anyone though.
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amphoria
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Post by amphoria on Oct 10, 2017 19:26:48 GMT
I don't think the Statement does show the full September position despite saying it is up to 29/9 (last working day in September). I have a similar amount of interest received as usual per the monthly download, but around half per the summary statement. I don't have the split, but the disclosed defaults are less than half the interest due on Plus for the month.
- PM Having just checked the monthly transaction CSV and loan book CSV, the defaults are up to date to the end of the month, but the interest payments only run up to about 18th Sept.
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Post by BrianC on Oct 10, 2017 21:19:14 GMT
A simple way to track your profit/loss is to record your ‘Earnings’ figure and compare it over days or months. Doing this I can see I’m down again already for October.
In the last 12 weeks my earnings figure has increased by £8.50. Considering how I have safeguarded loans too and get a monthly early adopter bonus that’s a pretty shocking performance for a 5 figure invested sum.
What’s more interesting is if you click the (?) symbol next to earnings. That tells you your current bad debt. I’ve now started recording that each day too to see how that grows. My bad debt figure under the (?) link is currently almost 50% of my lifetime Zopa earnings. That is why, once you add in the loans already in arrears I will probably make an overall loss over 11 years of investing. And it’s only getting worse. Truly shocking peer2peer performance and I really can’t understand why Zopa remains popular. God help us when the bad times hit!
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 11, 2017 0:06:13 GMT
Zopa confirmed that figure was in error recently but was quite easy to obtain by checking the all time loan book csv. The sum of the outstanding column after filtering status for "Default", "Deceased" or "Settled" items. I've just checked mine against my loanbook again and it seems to now be correct except for slight rounding issue (Its out 1p for me at the moment.)
I cannot see how the statements for September is accurate yet as it doesn't remotely line up with my figures from statements data for September, downloaded yesterday.
It says ...
Interest earned from borrowers £26.87
Bonus: Refer a friend £0.00
Bad debt: New defaults - £15.19
Bad debt: Repayments from defaults: £0.86 of which £0.53 had been eligible for tax relief
Last transaction in this period: 28th September 2017 at 21:07
My downloaded statement for September says:
Interest earned from borrowers: £48.06
Bonus from early adopter: £5.39
and its last entry was on 30th September 2017 at 23:07
As a result its totals from that point on are incorrect - this is as expected however as zopa is still admitting its still 2 months out - it gives a link that details the outstanding column checks.
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 11, 2017 0:31:51 GMT
I don't think the Statement does show the full September position despite saying it is up to 29/9 (last working day in September). I have a similar amount of interest received as usual per the monthly download, but around half per the summary statement. I don't have the split, but the disclosed defaults are less than half the interest due on Plus for the month.
- PM Mine says 28th so perhaps its a little out of sync across users. I checked to see if I had a transaction that referred to the time it states for me but it didn't in my data. To be honest I think the statements download csv is correct but the online reports are still out. The message at the top of my summary pages still states 2 months out. Whether this means 2 months exactly from today say or whether it will be accurate for september as of 1st Nov is not clear. Edit: Ok just checked mine and mrs AJU on both invest and ISA and got these curious results for September Summary. Invest mine: 28th MrsAju: 15th @21:15 ISA: Mine: 20th MrsAju : 15th @16:40 Not sure what this proves but curious none the less.
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Post by tredod on Oct 11, 2017 8:25:18 GMT
I am not lending in Z+.
However I do recall back in the days when it was possible to see a table showing all the capital and interest repayments made on a particular loan, that the tables showed that after a loan defaulted any subsequent recoveries were put towards repaying interest before repaying capital, so several months of interest repayments could be received before any capital was paid back. If recovery payments are still prioritised in this way it might explain why little appears to have been recovered yet.
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Post by misotu on Oct 11, 2017 9:57:03 GMT
Just withdrawing money from the Access fund currently takes more than 20 days and that's before any rush to the exit. This isn't really fair - from mid-June there was (and presumably still is) a rush to sell Access holdings, but not in order to exit Zopa. A lot of people used Access to hold funds temporarily and wanted to move those funds over as soon as the Zopa ISA was launched. I'm not saying that the resulting delays are acceptable, mind, but the situation is by no means normal.
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 11, 2017 12:03:56 GMT
I am not lending in Z+. However I do recall back in the days when it was possible to see a table showing all the capital and interest repayments made on a particular loan, that the tables showed that after a loan defaulted any subsequent recoveries were put towards repaying interest before repaying capital, so several months of interest repayments could be received before any capital was paid back. If recovery payments are still prioritised in this way it might explain why little appears to have been recovered yet. I remember the table you are referring to it was very useful. It was part of the loanbook and you could click on any loan name and see all the relevant payments etc and you are right it was useful to see when a payment was paid or missed. You can still see this in the statements.csv to a degree. I created a spreadsheet to reproduce all this - its huge as in order to see anything to do with a specific loan you have to have all the records. There usually 2 each month for capital and interest. I just checked one of my Pre-Safeguard lenders who has been in default since end of March 2014. They made 1 interest payment in April, no Capital that time then a very much smaller int payment in May along with a reduced capital payment. Then from June 2014 there are reduced capital payments right up to the present day. Sometime there are 2 payments in a month but always only capital. The actual payments when defaulted are roughly 37.5% of the expected payments. I can see this for any of my defaults so i'll check older ones to see if they had what you are suggesting.
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Post by geoffp on Oct 13, 2017 12:32:35 GMT
Just for interest, my return on Zopa Plus is still above 5.5%, based on quite a big loanbook, which should therefore be in line with the Zopa average. It is only this high because there are very few defaults in the first months of a lender repaying his/her loan. For example, I made my first Z+ loan on Friday 4th April 2016, and did not record a default until Monday September 26th 2016. With an average Z+ lending rate of 11.8% by that September date, you can see why!
I use the CSV loanbook to generate (Excel macro/VBA) a table in the Original Zopa Format, which gives me the statuses of Arrangement, Closed, Collections, Deceased, Default, Hardship, Withdrawal Pending, Withdrawn and Totals for each main product group (I don't use Access, so that isn't included). This gets converted into a single line of data, which provides a time series and cash-flows. So I'm confident that it's correct.
Even though the Z+ return is still above 5.5%, it is falling steadily. [By the way this does not include my 0.5% early adopter bonus, which I keep separate].
What worries me a bit is that Zopa as a company generates its returns on turnover -effectively taking a bit out of each loan- . It therefore seems to me that us lenders bear most of the risk. Lower rates to lenders increase the turnover, which is good for Zopa, but not so good for us. Tell me if I'm mistaken, which might be the case.
One interesting measurement I use (apart from return) is a simple ratio of (lost money from defaults) divided by (total interest returned). For my Zopa + this is currently running at 38.5%. It would be good to know whether this is typical, and whether this varies a lot.
I'm happy to share my VBA code. It's messy (I'm not a proper coder), but it seems robust and it works.
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bramhall17
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Post by bramhall17 on Oct 13, 2017 15:17:23 GMT
This is now an issue with me as well. Exacerbated by the fact that on reflection, I shunted too much from Classic into Plus. After a run of unprofitable months (well as far as I can discern) I have been taking the 1% hit and selling down my Plus holdings to a more manageable level.
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