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Post by propman on Oct 13, 2017 15:50:06 GMT
One interesting measurement I use (apart from return) is a simple ratio of (lost money from defaults) divided by (total interest returned). For my Zopa + this is currently running at 38.5%. It would be good to know whether this is typical, and whether this varies a lot.
That is a ratio I follow as well, curently 45% of Z+ interest lost in defaults, although I have a few loans trghat are still shown as in Collection despite more than 4 payments in arrears, so perhaps that is to incrrease further. There seem to have been a catch up in defaults with 5% increase this week.
- PM
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 14, 2017 0:48:16 GMT
Okay for my whole investment since 2006 defaults/Interest is 6.45% (This includes all interest but not 0.5% early adopter).
Individually
Plus= 33.68%
PreSafeguard= 12%
Obviously classic is nil, however the defaults in classic prior to being paid off are quite high. Can't really tell how much was lost when the default occurred. I could probably see it from the statements but for the pre-safeguard above in the region of 50% has been returned and most are still paying.
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Post by newlender on Oct 14, 2017 7:25:25 GMT
Look, let's just admit that those of us who invested in the old-style Z+ made a bad investment and move on. Zopa have changed the risk profile of Z+ as they clearly realised that they were being too ambitious and not assessing the risk properly. I am drawing my remaining £7K down as it is repaid and putting it into the ISA (Core) very gradually. Hopefully the tax relief on that money will go some way to mitigating my losses (heading for £500 of defaults on an investment of originally about £9K). Zopa has never been a savings account and some of the posts here seem to forget that. Saying that, I do feel that there is probably blame on both sides and am prepared to take my share. I still think that P2P is a good idea and have had some decent returns on Zopa Core ISA so far. But unsecured lending to large numbers of D and E borrowers for the old Z+ was, in retrospect, an accident waiting to happen.
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 14, 2017 9:19:02 GMT
I agree, I'm not pulling out as yet but does anyone know when Zopa has stopped d&e lending on plus.
I only ask as I picked up a D loan on 15/9 prior to that I had an E in april. Of my 5 defaults so far in plus 4 are d&e but 1 is a b.
Unlike many on here I have always treated my loans as a single investment in different ratios but always as one. Whilst I accept there are other investment opportunity elsewhere I am happy with my returns so far. I am reluctant to just jump ship and will remain in Zopa. My feeling is that looking at defaults at the micro level of each month is not a true indicator of where the default may end up.
That's my take. My approach is one of lending at the max of £10 per loan where I can control it. Relend into same product and i am only exposed to plus with 10% vs 90% in classic. In ISA it's still too early to say but my mix is slightly higher for plus (15%). Time will tell but I am fairly confident I will still be up on deal.
Edit: just found blog and d&e are still offered but at a lower level.(15% rather than previous 30%)
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Oct 14, 2017 14:53:00 GMT
I've been with big Z from the start but when I can get 6% or more from AC and RS with a provision fund, I am withdrawing repayments. Zopa has always crowed about its underwriting expertise, but I'm afraid the latest reduction in returns and shifting focus from d&e borrowers shows they got it seriously wrong.
While I have been obtaining the anticipated rates (so far) in plus I am VERY disturbed if the numerous posters here are losing as much money as they claim. In fact I am surprised Zopa have not made contact and explained. In the old days they would have replied on this forum but these days I guess it will take the Daily Wail to read these forums and publish a negative story.
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johni
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Post by johni on Oct 14, 2017 16:26:36 GMT
Look, let's just admit that those of us who invested in the old-style Z+ made a bad investment and move on. Zopa have changed the risk profile of Z+ as they clearly realised that they were being too ambitious and not assessing the risk properly. I am drawing my remaining £7K down as it is repaid and putting it into the ISA (Core) very gradually. Hopefully the tax relief on that money will go some way to mitigating my losses (heading for £500 of defaults on an investment of originally about £9K). Zopa has never been a savings account and some of the posts here seem to forget that. Saying that, I do feel that there is probably blame on both sides and am prepared to take my share. I still think that P2P is a good idea and have had some decent returns on Zopa Core ISA so far. But unsecured lending to large numbers of D and E borrowers for the old Z+ was, in retrospect, an accident waiting to happen. Don't necessarily agree Zopa set up plus and promised rates that were not achievable. But to add to this their model allows some investors to receive way above advertised rate while others get well below. This is not made clear.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Oct 14, 2017 16:34:17 GMT
Look, let's just admit that those of us who invested in the old-style Z+ made a bad investment and move on. Zopa have changed the risk profile of Z+ as they clearly realised that they were being too ambitious and not assessing the risk properly. I am drawing my remaining £7K down as it is repaid and putting it into the ISA (Core) very gradually. Hopefully the tax relief on that money will go some way to mitigating my losses (heading for £500 of defaults on an investment of originally about £9K). Zopa has never been a savings account and some of the posts here seem to forget that. Saying that, I do feel that there is probably blame on both sides and am prepared to take my share. I still think that P2P is a good idea and have had some decent returns on Zopa Core ISA so far. But unsecured lending to large numbers of D and E borrowers for the old Z+ was, in retrospect, an accident waiting to happen. Don't necessarily agree Zopa set up plus and promised rates that were not achievable. But to add to this their model allows some investors to receive way above advertised rate while others get well below. This is not made clear. Yes, I agree. So far I've been lucky and slightly exceed expected returns. But it seems even a reasonably good sized portfolio (say10k) can underperform disasterously. That should not be the case. And sadly, for a platform that used to be so open, their silence on the effectiveness of the business model is deafening.
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 14, 2017 17:12:46 GMT
<... snipped>
I use the CSV loanbook to generate (Excel macro/VBA) a table in the Original Zopa Format, which gives me the statuses of Arrangement, Closed, Collections, Deceased, Default, Hardship, Withdrawal Pending, Withdrawn and Totals for each main product group (I don't use Access, so that isn't included). This gets converted into a single line of data, which provides a time series and cash-flows. So I'm confident that it's correct.
<...Snipped even more>
I'm happy to share my VBA code. It's messy (I'm not a proper coder), but it seems robust and it works.
go on then geoffp - I'd be happy to share in your coding expertise - can't be any worse than mine. Its a few years since I did anything in anger so to speak but I have been trying to get to a point where I can just put in a borrower_ID and get all their payments details - one thing I can;t do that the old system did though is to say what their missed payments should have been. I'd be very interested to see your methods etc. One thing I wish zopa would do but I'm guessing they can't do it and not many people would be happy either is to have a loan book that has all my invest and ISA stuff in one. Or at least add in ISA to the naming convention - I've asked but they didn't like that idea ;-) I'm swimming in different spreadsheets (loanbook, Statements, ISALoanbook, ISAStatements) and then the OH has them as well.
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Post by geoffp on Oct 15, 2017 9:10:23 GMT
Ok aju
If I'm to share VBA code, how should I do it? Clearly I don't understand enough about the protocols on forums!
I could simply cut/paste it into the forum. Would that be "not right"?
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 15, 2017 9:26:13 GMT
i used google drive and just posted a link on here - i think, its a while ago - when I wanted to share some stuff (in that case it was old pdf's of the old zopa forum). Not sure if you can PM it to me or not. The max size you can attach to this and any forum I think is very limited now. Failing all that you could just email is to me - i'd be happy to give you my email on a PM. Lets see if Ton ⓉⓞⓃ or someone else comes along and can help us exchange this stuff. i'll check what I did last time |
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Oct 15, 2017 9:51:22 GMT
Previously what's happened is that the inventor who wants to share their code put's up a link... Check out what they did on Lendy Forum Link Here. |
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Post by geoffp on Oct 15, 2017 13:15:34 GMT
Excel Loanbook Macro from geoffp
1drv.ms/t/s!AlwSzsGdigIsgaob_i8I_ju-50BY7w
https://
The link is in ms Onedrive, but I don't think you need an account to use it. If I'm wrong I'm happy if someone else posts it somewhere better.
This is my main Zopa macro. I suggest you open it in notepad, then copy/paste it into excel as follows:
Open excel and make sure that the Developer Tab is enabled.
Then do Alt F11 to open a blank code window in the IDE (Integrated Development Environment).
Copy/paste the text file.
Download a copy of your latest loanbook (CSV file from the Zopa website).
The select "macros" from your excel (Developer Tab) and select => geoffp_ZopaMacro_Main
Hopefully this summarise the state of your loan book in a suitable form.
It doesn't support ZopaAccess as I have never used that, but it should be possible to modify it using copy/paste if you don't use one of the other products categories.
I don't have time to support this so I'm offering it on an "as/is" basis. I hope you understand...
Good luck
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 15, 2017 22:38:55 GMT
geoffp wow! i'm lost for words - you lied when you said you weren't a coder looks pretty interesting to me. You are using things I've never seen before in Excel. Mind you i'm not sure that's much of a compliment ;-). One thing I would say though is that anyone who uses it might want to know that it trashes and data you may be relying on if you run it in a table screen. I expected it might after looking at the first few lines noticing it removed the borrower rate column - it doesn't really need it - so I downloaded one of my all_time files and ran it in isolation of my data. It may take me a while to get to grips with it as it seems very comprehensive - definitely looks very interesting and a completely tangential take on what I am doing. One thing for others who might try it is that the link did not work when I clicked it - its not formed correctly - I copied the whole line and then pasted that into my browser then it was accessible. I find the link button is a bit of frig sometimes and takes a bit of getting used to, I usually have to have a few attempts at it everytime I use it. I've copied the link here but let me know if you go back and edit/fix it and i'll remove my copy of it. Geoffp's code see text above on how to use
Thanks for letting us have a look at it, I love to learn new approaches to things and this is definitely a new one to me.
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 15, 2017 23:01:18 GMT
Geoff, just a thought as I was trying to get to grips I realised that I needed to see my data with the top row always showing me what I am looking at so I wrote a little ditty for my customized buttons that freezes the top row (all headers remain visible) and as I like to see more on a full page I drop the zoom level down to 80%. I just tagged it to a personal button but you could have it in your code if you so wished. Its using 80% for the zoom but I noticed that you used 75% for the bystatus. You could of course just use the freeze panes section.
Sub FilterData_and_FreezeTopRow()
'
' DataFilter_and_freezetop_row Macro
'
Rows("1:1").Select
Selection.AutoFilter
With ActiveWindow
.SplitColumn = 0
.SplitRow = 1
End With
ActiveWindow.FreezePanes = True
ActiveWindow.Zoom = 80
'Make Header Easier to read
Rows("1:1").Select
With Selection
.HorizontalAlignment = xlCenter
.VerticalAlignment = xlTop
.WrapText = True
.Orientation = 0
.AddIndent = False
.IndentLevel = 0
.ShrinkToFit = False
.ReadingOrder = xlContext
.MergeCells = False
End With
End Sub
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Post by Harland Kearney on Oct 15, 2017 23:30:19 GMT
I invested £1,000 in Late August 2016, I believe in November that year 3 of my loans defaulted causing me a £40 capital loss (so 4 percent of capital lost) in the first 2 months. Now I understand if I let the portfolio continue to run this would likely have been outweighed possibly; but the arrears kept coming months on after. To this day my account is negative performance; the only P2P site I have actually lost money in overall, as well as losing the moneys capital potential to grow is lost too. Again probs got "unlucky" and poor timing but it was quite a shock to me as I used the Zopa account as a more passive/lower risk option compared to Lendy ect (Lower risk in terms of P2P, nearly all P2P is high risk I understand.)
My accounts performance is still negative so I have decided to sell out.
Do get the odd penny received and Zopa didn't charge me to withdraw they refunded that part without my even asking (OP didn't get the same treatment though?)
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