r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jul 3, 2019 12:06:42 GMT
Thats my view as well These sorts of projects are all about the last 1% Its fine getting to 75%, then 85% but the last 15% includes the snagging etc The last 1% is horrible. People without experience don't realise this. All the final sign offs, quite possibly no even understanding half the things they will need to get done. And from experience (as an observer) if you get on the wrong side of these sorts of people, inspectors, they don't let go. I suspect the borrower is in this area now, trying to get all sorts of issue resolved. Its where a decent experienced project manager (or team if the project is that big) is the key in getting it across the line. Underestimating things that can go wrong, taking comfort from "updates" etc. Just look at crossrail.... From what our regular passers by note, the borrower actually being at the site doing something from time to time might help advance the cause somewhat. As much as I can understand the desire to see if the borrower can make a go of it, I'm long past understanding how the finances could possibly work unless CH is out of date. Even ignoring MT's loan, the second charge loan for £179,232 has been accruing interest at 12% per month for 8 months now. Assuming the borrower isn't paying that back (perhaps incorrect), 12% per month interest of £179232 is I think (£179232 *1.12^12) - £179232 = £519K of just interest on that loan alone per year. MT's loan default interest is, I assume, a much lower percentage but it's a much bigger loan, so will be generating £500k+ p.a. in interest easily. There's also a 3rd loan from another provider, not sure how much. How does a fledgling business unable to service their debt at the moment find £1m+ per year just to stave off the interest on their debts - all from leasing a few stalls and opening a cafe?
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robski
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Post by robski on Jul 3, 2019 12:33:56 GMT
Thats my view as well These sorts of projects are all about the last 1% Its fine getting to 75%, then 85% but the last 15% includes the snagging etc The last 1% is horrible. People without experience don't realise this. All the final sign offs, quite possibly no even understanding half the things they will need to get done. And from experience (as an observer) if you get on the wrong side of these sorts of people, inspectors, they don't let go. I suspect the borrower is in this area now, trying to get all sorts of issue resolved. Its where a decent experienced project manager (or team if the project is that big) is the key in getting it across the line. Underestimating things that can go wrong, taking comfort from "updates" etc. Just look at crossrail.... From what our regular passers by note, the borrower actually being at the site doing something from time to time might help advance the cause somewhat. As much as I can understand the desire to see if the borrower can make a go of it, I'm long past understanding how the finances could possibly work unless CH is out of date. Even ignoring MT's loan, the second charge loan for £179,232 has been accruing interest at 12% per month for 8 months now. Assuming the borrower isn't paying that back (perhaps incorrect), 12% per month interest of £179232 is I think (£179232 *1.12^12) - £179232 = £519K of just interest on that loan alone per year. MT's loan default interest is, I assume, a much lower percentage but it's a much bigger loan, so will be generating £500k+ p.a. in interest easily. There's also a 3rd loan from another provider, not sure how much. How does a fledgling business unable to service their debt at the moment find £1m+ per year just to stave off the interest on their debts - all from leasing a few stalls and opening a cafe? Oh I totally agree on the borrower hes either not up to the project management task, or hes simply not there enough, or I guess both As far as the costs issue. Again I agree, hence my post a few back where I am currently expecting a small capital loss. How do i come to that conclusion? Well its based on the fact I do not expect this to work for the original borrower. It might, but I expect not. I see the interest getting on top of them and at that point no option but to sell. Some may say may as well sell now, but its a completely different animal, a business operating at a loss because of interest, but that would make a profit with lower interest is a probable going concern and hence has more inherent value than a partly completed unproven one. The problem with the later scenario is your going to have far fewer interested parties, and those that are are going to be looking for a tidy easy profit (see Birkenhead for bid values on incomplete projects). If and it remains an if of course the borrower gets this to work, but is overrun by interest payments then our risk of capital loss is greatly reduced. My suspicion is, and its purely my own view, is that MT and the other lenders see this as the best get out. Get it over the line then play hardball with the borrower. I would bet the "pull the plug" point on development is however when the capital + interest starts to exceed some kind of 90 day sale value (or similar), that would be my position.
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Post by queenvictoria on Jul 3, 2019 18:21:30 GMT
From what our regular passers by note, the borrower actually being at the site doing something from time to time might help advance the cause somewhat. As much as I can understand the desire to see if the borrower can make a go of it, I'm long past understanding how the finances could possibly work unless CH is out of date. Even ignoring MT's loan, the second charge loan for £179,232 has been accruing interest at 12% per month for 8 months now. Assuming the borrower isn't paying that back (perhaps incorrect), 12% per month interest of £179232 is I think (£179232 *1.12^12) - £179232 = £519K of just interest on that loan alone per year. MT's loan default interest is, I assume, a much lower percentage but it's a much bigger loan, so will be generating £500k+ p.a. in interest easily. There's also a 3rd loan from another provider, not sure how much. How does a fledgling business unable to service their debt at the moment find £1m+ per year just to stave off the interest on their debts - all from leasing a few stalls and opening a cafe? Oh I totally agree on the borrower hes either not up to the project management task, or hes simply not there enough, or I guess both As far as the costs issue. Again I agree, hence my post a few back where I am currently expecting a small capital loss. How do i come to that conclusion? Well its based on the fact I do not expect this to work for the original borrower. It might, but I expect not. I see the interest getting on top of them and at that point no option but to sell. Some may say may as well sell now, but its a completely different animal, a business operating at a loss because of interest, but that would make a profit with lower interest is a probable going concern and hence has more inherent value than a partly completed unproven one. The problem with the later scenario is your going to have far fewer interested parties, and those that are are going to be looking for a tidy easy profit (see Birkenhead for bid values on incomplete projects). If and it remains an if of course the borrower gets this to work, but is overrun by interest payments then our risk of capital loss is greatly reduced. My suspicion is, and its purely my own view, is that MT and the other lenders see this as the best get out. Get it over the line then play hardball with the borrower. I would bet the "pull the plug" point on development is however when the capital + interest starts to exceed some kind of 90 day sale value (or similar), that would be my position. Many of the arguments in the various posts above are perfectly logical except perhaps the last 1% one which would only work if you ignored the fact that when the loan was taken out in 2017 we were supposedly at the pretty much last 1% stage then. However, we are all guessing because MT won't tell us anything. I am amazed at the patience of most of you but I take my hat off to you all. I feel much less patient now but there is precious little I can do about it other than to vow never to darken MTs doors again once this loan and the other defaulted ones are ended.
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james21
Member of DD Central
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Post by james21 on Jul 3, 2019 18:41:58 GMT
Oh I totally agree on the borrower hes either not up to the project management task, or hes simply not there enough, or I guess both As far as the costs issue. Again I agree, hence my post a few back where I am currently expecting a small capital loss. How do i come to that conclusion? Well its based on the fact I do not expect this to work for the original borrower. It might, but I expect not. I see the interest getting on top of them and at that point no option but to sell. Some may say may as well sell now, but its a completely different animal, a business operating at a loss because of interest, but that would make a profit with lower interest is a probable going concern and hence has more inherent value than a partly completed unproven one. The problem with the later scenario is your going to have far fewer interested parties, and those that are are going to be looking for a tidy easy profit (see Birkenhead for bid values on incomplete projects). If and it remains an if of course the borrower gets this to work, but is overrun by interest payments then our risk of capital loss is greatly reduced. My suspicion is, and its purely my own view, is that MT and the other lenders see this as the best get out. Get it over the line then play hardball with the borrower. I would bet the "pull the plug" point on development is however when the capital + interest starts to exceed some kind of 90 day sale value (or similar), that would be my position. Many of the arguments in the various posts above are perfectly logical except perhaps the last 1% one which would only work if you ignored the fact that when the loan was taken out in 2017 we were supposedly at the pretty much last 1% stage then. However, we are all guessing because MT won't tell us anything. I am amazed at the patience of most of you but I take my hat off to you all. I feel much less patient now but there is precious little I can do about it other than to vow never to darken MTs doors again once this loan and the other defaulted ones are ended. With you on all you say; Am stuck with all I have left. MT will fade away with a number of others not enough volume, they know this
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Post by quidsaveblue2003 on Jul 3, 2019 21:01:18 GMT
I feel much less patient now but there is precious little I can do about it other than to vow never to darken MTs doors again once this loan and the other defaulted ones are ended. But when? Lots of lenders have the same thoughts as yours, only if they could quit MT quickly.
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djay
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Post by djay on Jul 4, 2019 9:06:15 GMT
I pretty much exited MT some time ago along with a couple of other similar platforms. I'm left with modest amounts in this loan, the Scottish holiday holiday park and Plymouth student accommodation. I did feel that MT was better run than one the other similar platforms (high rate property development and bridging finance) I exited.
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Post by queenvictoria on Jul 5, 2019 6:51:22 GMT
If Bailey Partnership have made 2 weekly visits as promised in the last update (23rd May) then by my calc the 4th such visit is due today.
Still no further update though and according to stokeloans last post no sign of any movement on site
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Post by martin44 on Jul 8, 2019 19:45:11 GMT
If Bailey Partnership have made 2 weekly visits as promised in the last update (23rd May) then by my calc the 4th such visit is due today. Still no further update though and according to stokeloans last post no sign of any movement on site Come the next update I'm expecting nothing less than bad news..... very bad news. Hope i'm wrong. Should have included this in the first instance .... MoneyThing
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Post by queenvictoria on Jul 11, 2019 19:20:12 GMT
If Bailey Partnership have made 2 weekly visits as promised in the last update (23rd May) then by my calc the 4th such visit is due today. Still no further update though and according to stokeloans last post no sign of any movement on site Come the next update I'm expecting nothing less than bad news..... very bad news. Hope i'm wrong. Should have included this in the first instance .... MoneyThing Bailey Partnership will be heading off next week to do their 5th fortnightly visit since the last update. Yes folks, the largest loan on the platform is in extremis yet 7 weeks and 4 fortnightly visits have not brought even a dickybird for the long suffering investors who have funded the project.
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Post by martin44 on Jul 11, 2019 20:03:24 GMT
Come the next update I'm expecting nothing less than bad news..... very bad news. Hope i'm wrong. Should have included this in the first instance .... MoneyThing Bailey Partnership will be heading off next week to do their 5th fortnightly visit since the last update. Yes folks, the largest loan on the platform is in extremis yet 7 weeks and 4 fortnightly visits have not brought even a dickybird for the long suffering investors who have funded the project. I suspect if any of these visits (if they have happened) had any sort of positive news then MoneyThing would have updated by now.... this really is getting very tiresome.. let me think..Mmmm.. where did i last see lenders being totally ignored and treated like mushrooms...
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Post by highlevel on Jul 12, 2019 8:00:29 GMT
I'm not in this one thankfully, however every time I see a post on this thread it reminds me of the Monty Python 'Dead Parrot' sketch... Lenders know this scheme is dead and I'm sure MoneyThing know this scheme is dead. It's a farce really - we have an FCA regulated company who can keep kicking the can down the road in perpetuity purely because they don't want yet another default on the platform (and further scrutiny on some of the due diligence that has, or more than likely has not, been performed on some of these loans) MoneyThing and SophieThing can post all the vaguely worded, lacking in substance updates they want - However the crux of the matter is that whist P2P as a whole is suffering due to poor quality borrowers (that's why they are going the P2P route, right - they can't get mainstream finance) once you scratch beneath the MoneyThing surface there appears to be some appallingly bad decisions being made.
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Post by queenvictoria on Jul 12, 2019 8:40:50 GMT
I'm not in this one thankfully, however every time I see a post on this thread it reminds me of the Monty Python 'Dead Parrot' sketch... Lenders know this scheme is dead and I'm sure MoneyThing know this scheme is dead. It's a farce really - we have an FCA regulated company who can keep kicking the can down the road in perpetuity purely because they don't want yet another default on the platform (and further scrutiny on some of the due diligence that has, or more than likely has not, been performed on some of these loans) MoneyThing and SophieThing can post all the vaguely worded, lacking in substance updates they want - However the crux of the matter is that whist P2P as a whole is suffering due to poor quality borrowers (that's why they are going the P2P route, right - they can't get mainstream finance) once you scratch beneath the MoneyThing surface there appears to be some appallingly bad decisions being made. We are just guessing, highlevel. We don't know what decisions are being made or by whom. We are just the lenders, the mugs, so we are told nothing. There is nothing we can do about it other than squeal (I had to look up how to spell that !) and squealing (I'm practicing my spelling so I remember it next time), squealing has no effect but at least it is something.
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corto
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one-syllabistic
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Post by corto on Jul 12, 2019 9:07:04 GMT
As far as I see their last communication either here or online was on the 5th of July about a trivial issue ("has or had")
3 loans due tomorrow.
Lack of communication decreases trust and increases the perceived risk level. If they go ahead as they do, they may well be driving it towards a critical point.
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Nomad
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Post by Nomad on Jul 12, 2019 10:13:13 GMT
Holding update now on platform.
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averageguy
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Post by averageguy on Jul 12, 2019 11:39:59 GMT
Holding update now on platform. Nomad Did you get an email telling you there is an update or were you just checking the site? I currently get one if it’s classed as ‘’significant’’ ...i’d Like one for any update other than perhaps the ‘no issues to report’.. to save time looking on here or the site
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