|
|
Post by cyrilmadrid on Oct 13, 2017 19:22:45 GMT
I read in this week's update: "The current default rate has fallen slightly this week to 6.9% if you include repaid loans and 12.6% on the current live loan book."
That sounds like a hell of a lot. How is this calculated ? 12.6% of current live loans are in default status (doesn't mean the money is lost, maybe just delayed).
Not sure I understand the first figure (once a loan is repaid -in full-) you shouldn't count it as part of the defaulted loans, so I don't see how they calculate this figure.
Anyone has an estimated of real loss rate ? default rate * loss given default ?
|
|
fp
Posts: 1,008 
Likes: 853
|
Post by fp on Oct 13, 2017 19:48:30 GMT
If you look at this from a realistic angle, loans in default are more like 25% (i'm sure someone will chip in with a more accurate figure)
The real loss rate will become more apparent when the provision fund runs dry, which it will do if the predictions of many come to fruition. At present, we don't actually know how much has been lost on default loans topped up by the provision fund because Ly aren't very transparent. Realistically any loan which does not repay all interest and bonuses in full when it is recovered should have a level of transparency to lenders owed money, i'm pretty sure this will be tested legally in the not too distant future, if I was a BH and missing funds as a result of default, it would certainly be at the forefront of my mind.
|
|
r00lish67
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,692
Likes: 4,048
|
Post by r00lish67 on Oct 14, 2017 9:32:47 GMT
DEF + IA as % of TL exc REPS 31.5%/36.7%Yep, this is almost exactly what I came up with when applying the P2PFA's calculation of Non Performing Loans : p2pindependentforum.com/post/221366The only significant difference was including IA loans more than 45 days overdue rather than just overdue at all.
|
|
r00lish67
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,692
Likes: 4,048
|
Post by r00lish67 on Oct 14, 2017 10:19:58 GMT
Ha, I just tried to post FundingSecure figures side by side, but my formatting skills are clearly severely lacking. Here they are anyway in significantly worse format:
Item FS Value
Total Loanbook (inc REP) £107,302,534
Total Loanbook (exc REP) £69,776,813
Total Current DEF £4,294,863
Total Current overdue (not DEF) £7,948,000
Total Current IOA (active less than 45d overdue) £57,533,950
-------------------------------------- ---------------
DEF as % of TL inc REPs 4.0%
DEF as % of TL exc REPs 6.2%
--------------------------------------
DEF + IA as % of TL inc REPs 11.4%
DEF + IA as % of TL exc REPs 17.5%
--------------------------------------
DEF + Overdue+SUS as % of TL inc REPs 11.4%
DEF + Overdue+SUS as % of TL exc REPs 17.5%
--------------------------------------
- excludes cancelled loans
- IA in FS-land defined as +45d overdue
- No concept of suspended loans in FS, so last two sets of figures are identical
-Defaults exclude recovered loans
Edit: On reflection, to move from 'quick and dirty' to something better, these numbers need to take recoveries better into account. At the moment, I've excluded defaulted loans that have been recovered from the above, but the elephant in the room with the FS figures is the Turbine loan, a £1m loan which resulted in a 70% capital loss for investors.
|
|
