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Post by captainconfident on Dec 6, 2017 19:19:02 GMT
I came here looking to see if anyone else was discussing this, as I got this through today:-
855
Number of businesses you're lending to
8
Loan(s) defaulted in the last month, which is 1.13%* of your portfolio
My hand picked basket of cherries and lemons has been running for 5 years and has always been stable with a few of defaults every month, but this is double the usual state of affairs. For anyone thinking it's Brexit based, please remember that we haven't Brexited yet. That's when my firm, which is imp/ex to EU countries, will close unless single market access conditions remain unchanged.
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markr
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Post by markr on Dec 6, 2017 21:30:48 GMT
My equivalent figures are 1972, 5 and 0.37%. Maybe you've just had an unlucky month (or I've had a lucky one)!
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Dec 6, 2017 21:37:00 GMT
I lost 1.61% of the portfolio to defaults last month, despite being well diversified (over 300 businesses). It's been my worst month ever.
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markr
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Post by markr on Dec 6, 2017 21:52:44 GMT
Looking at the default update announcements, it seems that 46 partial-market loans defaulted in November. I don't religiously follow these announcements, but I glance at them every so often, and my feeling is this may be higher than a typical month, but not overly so. There were 5 Thursdays in November as well, which accounts for some of the increase.
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Post by captainconfident on Dec 7, 2017 10:19:23 GMT
Five Thursdays, well spotted. markr you've more than double my level of diversification so should have more than double my number of defaults. Thanks for saying I was unlucky, as I may just be a talented lemon-picker. Roll on January, when I'm sure I'll be back here - I can see a buildup of late payment comments and I fear the worst. |
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Dec 7, 2017 11:50:05 GMT
There are always ups and downs in default. What really matters is the recovery process. At least I see how much money being recovered by FC, unlike the other personal loan p2p platform. I believe the default rates on FC is being managed overall, but I don't like seeing loans going into default just after 2 months.
Currently, I have loans lending to 415 business. There are 26 comments regarding those loans, and only 13 loans in defaults.
The earliest one is 22582 (06 Apr 2017), and my latest default is 36931 (14 Sep 2017).
Regarding the recovery process, I am receiving recovery payment from 22582 and 25992.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Dec 7, 2017 13:00:46 GMT
There is no default pattern that I can see. I average about 1500+ business loans year on year and my recent default figures are:
2017: 51 defaults to date. 8 in Nov and highest at 10 in Mar
2016: 53 defaults. 9 in June and in July
2015: 46 defaults. 9 in May.
My recovery to date stands at 38.75% and given this includes recent defaults I expect the eventual recovery to be around 50%
I have always picked my own loans so am now gently running down my portfolio to avoid the IMO 30% of FC loans that look like complete lemons. Don't do FC property loans.
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Post by longjohn on Dec 8, 2017 13:10:08 GMT
I have always picked my own loans so am now gently running down my portfolio to avoid the IMO 30% of FC loans that look like complete lemons. When FC started the banks were still in crisis and barely lending to each other let alone their customers so upstarts like peer to peer lenders could make hay lending to good companies that the banks were ignoring. Now the banks are pretty much back to normal and normal lending patterns have been resumed leaving peer to peer lenders struggling to find good companies to take their money. Lenders such as FC are committed to growth and have to lend to pretty much anyone to expand the business and so the overall credit risk has worsened. I fully expect the Lemon ratio to rise steadily over the next few years just when Joe Public is being invited to partake in this nice 'safe' savings scheme. In the meantime over my three (now empty and dormant) accounts I have 26% of bad debts recovered. J
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Post by mrmister on Dec 8, 2017 14:34:22 GMT
A big increase over the last 5 months - maybe a signal of approaching economic correction: Loans-default.txt (1.6 KB) |
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markr
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Post by markr on Dec 8, 2017 16:09:25 GMT
A big increase over the last 5 months - maybe a signal of approaching economic correction: Interestingly, for us mere mortals, is that the brunt of the increase has been borne by the whole loan lenders.
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Post by pmac67 on Dec 12, 2017 11:30:55 GMT
A big increase over the last 5 months - maybe a signal of approaching economic correction: More likely a signal that FC doesn't really care who they loan money to...
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Post by pmac67 on Dec 12, 2017 11:50:54 GMT
There is no default pattern that I can see. I average about 1500+ business loans year on year and my recent default figures are: 2017: 51 defaults to date. 8 in Nov and highest at 10 in Mar 2016: 53 defaults. 9 in June and in July 2015: 46 defaults. 9 in May. My recovery to date stands at 38.75% and given this includes recent defaults I expect the eventual recovery to be around 50% I have always picked my own loans so am now gently running down my portfolio to avoid the IMO 30% of FC loans that look like complete lemons. Don't do FC property loans. Don't do FC property loans ? Is that meaning you don't or you suggest others don't ? Just asking because 38.75% recovery and expectations of 50% is quite an achievement ! FC lifetime recovery is stated as being 48% up to 1st October 2017 <Dunno why the data stops 3 years ago? Maybe it's not a great figure to report perhaps?> With regards to the 48% recovered I would imagine the vast majority of the recoveries is from secured loans meaning the recoveries from unsecured must be tiny. My own recovered bad debt in the current tax year is 2% So give yourself a huge pat on the back for achieving 38.75%. I don't expect to see too much recovery since i don't believe FC have the capacity or endeavour to chase down the defaulted loans effectively. Sporadic loan comments suggest how apathetic and incompetent they are at recovery. They seem to do a lot of 'Chasing' and very little 'Catching'
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ton27
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Post by ton27 on Dec 12, 2017 13:01:36 GMT
I started investing in loans I could choose and then, when that was not available, invested in Property Loans whilst steadily reducing the total lend. This has continues since Property Loans vanished and I am now at about £15k from a high of over £40k. My recoveries to date (over more than 5 years) are running at 42%, which I expect will improve a little as time goes by.
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blender
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Post by blender on Dec 12, 2017 13:40:55 GMT
There is no default pattern that I can see. I average about 1500+ business loans year on year and my recent default figures are: 2017: 51 defaults to date. 8 in Nov and highest at 10 in Mar 2016: 53 defaults. 9 in June and in July 2015: 46 defaults. 9 in May. My recovery to date stands at 38.75% and given this includes recent defaults I expect the eventual recovery to be around 50% I have always picked my own loans so am now gently running down my portfolio to avoid the IMO 30% of FC loans that look like complete lemons. Don't do FC property loans. Don't do FC property loans ? Is that meaning you don't or you suggest others don't ? Just asking because 38.75% recovery and expectations of 50% is quite an achievement ! FC lifetime recovery is stated as being 48% up to 1st October 2017 <Dunno why the data stops 3 years ago? Maybe it's not a great figure to report perhaps?> With regards to the 48% recovered I would imagine the vast majority of the recoveries is from secured loans meaning the recoveries from unsecured must be tiny. My own recovered bad debt in the current tax year is 2% So give yourself a huge pat on the back for achieving 38.75%. I don't expect to see too much recovery since i don't believe FC have the capacity or endeavour to chase down the defaulted loans effectively. Sporadic loan comments suggest how apathetic and incompetent they are at recovery. They seem to do a lot of 'Chasing' and very little 'Catching' Don't keep property loans to repayment, perhaps. We have two accounts of property loans which are due for the chop, the first at the end of December, before 2 becomes 1. Yesterday there were some early repayments which placed over £16k into available funds. Straight out the door. I wondered who had repaid early - but that is secret, and who cares any more?
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Dec 12, 2017 14:02:37 GMT
Don't do FC property loans ? Is that meaning you don't or you suggest others don't ? Just asking because 38.75% recovery and expectations of 50% is quite an achievement ! FC lifetime recovery is stated as being 48% up to 1st October 2017 <Dunno why the data stops 3 years ago? Maybe it's not a great figure to report perhaps?> With regards to the 48% recovered I would imagine the vast majority of the recoveries is from secured loans meaning the recoveries from unsecured must be tiny. My own recovered bad debt in the current tax year is 2% So give yourself a huge pat on the back for achieving 38.75%. I don't expect to see too much recovery since i don't believe FC have the capacity or endeavour to chase down the defaulted loans effectively. Sporadic loan comments suggest how apathetic and incompetent they are at recovery. They seem to do a lot of 'Chasing' and very little 'Catching' In one of my old FC accounts, it achieves over 40% recovery over the past 5 years without secured property loans. Before the "improved FC", I only kept property loans for a short period of holding after my lesson of 1st property loan on FC.
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