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Post by pmac67 on Dec 12, 2017 14:45:08 GMT
Don't do FC property loans ? Is that meaning you don't or you suggest others don't ? Just asking because 38.75% recovery and expectations of 50% is quite an achievement ! FC lifetime recovery is stated as being 48% up to 1st October 2017 <Dunno why the data stops 3 years ago? Maybe it's not a great figure to report perhaps?> With regards to the 48% recovered I would imagine the vast majority of the recoveries is from secured loans meaning the recoveries from unsecured must be tiny. My own recovered bad debt in the current tax year is 2% So give yourself a huge pat on the back for achieving 38.75%. I don't expect to see too much recovery since i don't believe FC have the capacity or endeavour to chase down the defaulted loans effectively. Sporadic loan comments suggest how apathetic and incompetent they are at recovery. They seem to do a lot of 'Chasing' and very little 'Catching' In one of my old FC accounts, it achieves over 40% recovery over the past 5 years without secured property loans. Before the "improved FC", I only kept property loans for a short period of holding after my lesson of 1st property loan on FC. I only have 2 years history in FC... As I posted earlier they only give recovery stats up to October 2014 but proudly boast of £156 million earned up to October 2017 They are burying the bad news there for sure. Sounds like good recoveries are achievable on older more mature accounts but newcomers are likely to see very little recovery. For a long time bad debt rates remained below the 2% ceiling but the builders are in now installing a new one and it's gonna be high I'm sure.... 2% already for 2017 loans ? what will that figure be in 4 years time ? Good luck to all sitting on a pile of garbage of which i'm one and don't stop chasing FC ! even if it is your own tail most of the time...
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Dec 12, 2017 17:16:32 GMT
In one of my old FC accounts, it achieves over 40% recovery over the past 5 years without secured property loans. Before the "improved FC", I only kept property loans for a short period of holding after my lesson of 1st property loan on FC. I only have 2 years history in FC... As I posted earlier they only give recovery stats up to October 2014 but proudly boast of £156 million earned up to October 2017 They are burying the bad news there for sure. Sounds like good recoveries are achievable on older more mature accounts but newcomers are likely to see very little recovery. For a long time bad debt rates remained below the 2% ceiling but the builders are in now installing a new one and it's gonna be high I'm sure.... 2% already for 2017 loans ? what will that figure be in 4 years time ? Good luck to all sitting on a pile of garbage of which i'm one and don't stop chasing FC ! even if it is your own tail most of the time... I don't do property with FC because the rates do not cover the risk IMO. I do property through Assetz. I have had 168 defaults to date, the first being 1546 in 2013 which is now recovered in full. The defaults sound a lot but I have never had less than 1500 loans outstanding at any one time and many of the 2011/13 ones have long since paid back. I have made a pretty consistent 7.5/8.0% year on year. My defaults as a % of gross interest (after fees but before defaults) stands at 19.2% since my account was opened.
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markr
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Post by markr on Dec 12, 2017 21:28:55 GMT
As I posted earlier they only give recovery stats up to October 2014 There's nothing sinister here, it is simply to allow a reasonable time for recovery. When I switched my strategy to almost exclusively property loans (sold before the end date), my recoveries on older SME loans rose steadily to 43% and I have no reason to suppose they wouldn't have reached FC's 48% value given time. It's falling again now I've switched back to SME loans since I'm now adding new defaults to the figure. 2% already for 2017 loans ? 2% is FC's estimated annualised loss after recoveries for loans originated in 2017. For each year, the figure comprises 4 parts: the actual losses so far on loans originated that year, FC's estimate of future losses on those loans, actual recoveries so far on those loans, and FC's estimate of future recoveries. So every year's figure measures exactly the same thing, but the further into the past you go, the figure becomes less of an estimate and more of a measurement of actual performance. To be honest, for 2017 the figure is not much more than a guess; for a good measure of performance you'd need to go back to, ohhh, say, 2014. So, FC's answer to the question, "Is 2017 a particularly bad year" is, "We don't think so, no, but come back in 2020 and we'll let you know for certain".
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blender
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Post by blender on Dec 12, 2017 21:49:38 GMT
Yes, what you say is right for losses net of recoveries, but if we look just at defaults/losses before recovery you can get a good view of comparative performance after, say, a year. A rolling monthly figure for percentage losses after a year from origination would be interesting for showing trends. (I wonder if FC might share that? - no I don't)
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Dec 14, 2017 17:31:39 GMT
A further 1% of my entire portfolio defaulted today.
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Post by grahamreeds on Dec 14, 2017 22:09:46 GMT
2 D's for me leaving me £38 down. Now if this were bought with the current system then I would be £260 down.
0.5% is way too high for my liking.
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Post by skint4achange on Dec 14, 2017 22:17:46 GMT
The only way I have found to try to beat this is to have multiple accounts. Means my diversification is greater and although I am exposed to more loans to potentially default, if they do the amount in default is lower.
I am getting more wary about FC though as they appear now to be throwing money (Our money) at anything that moves (Hence the adverts on TV!).
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Post by grahamreeds on Dec 15, 2017 4:59:09 GMT
So do you have several accounts per day and you rotate them?
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Post by skint4achange on Dec 15, 2017 7:57:42 GMT
So do you have several accounts per day and you rotate them? Per day?? No, I just have multiple accounts. It just means that my maximum exposure to any one loan is smaller than if I had one account. It does however mean that I am exposed to more loans but you are never going to mitigate 100% of risk in this game.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 15, 2017 8:51:51 GMT
Assuming the multiple accounts don't each stick 0.5% into the same loan(s) of course.
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Post by skint4achange on Dec 15, 2017 8:56:34 GMT
Assuming the multiple accounts don't each stick 0.5% into the same loan(s) of course. They don't because they loan out at different times. I don't just open all the accounts at the same time! Open one, lend out, leave it, open next etc.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Dec 15, 2017 13:07:31 GMT
Assuming the multiple accounts don't each stick 0.5% into the same loan(s) of course. They don't because they loan out at different times. I don't just open all the accounts at the same time! Open one, lend out, leave it, open next etc. Blimey that's a lot of bother but I agree that diversification needs to be wider than 0.5% which is why I am running down at the moment. One default yesterday - 33908 D band.
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Post by mikeyp on Dec 15, 2017 17:19:10 GMT
The monthly NAV return on FCIF for November was published yesterday. It was up to 0.5% from 0.4% in October but still a bit below the average for the year. The comment includes The aftermath of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma continued to flow through into US loan performance, however, the accounts directly impacted have now been provided for in full. The number of loans expected to ultimately default is significantly lower than originally expected, and the Board hopes to see some curing in the months ahead.
The quarterly dividend is the same at 1.625 p per share. The share price is pretty much unchanged on the month suggesting the market doesn't think conditions have changed much. The 142 million C shares will convert to ordinary shares on 20 December.
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