dermot
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Post by dermot on Nov 14, 2017 2:44:07 GMT
On my various travels in the US, I've always been surprised at the huge numbers (compared to the UK) of shopping malls and large stores, it has never seemed financially viable to me in most locations. If this article is correct, and the same woes beset the UK, I wonder which P2P platforms will be most exposed? www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-retail-debt/ |
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jonah
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Post by jonah on Nov 14, 2017 4:31:33 GMT
Lots of graphics there. Not sure if that will be a trigger or respond to another triggering event but sounds like it could be a big domino whenever there is the next failure.
In terms of p2p platforms, retail ones eg z or RS could be hit by the rise in unemployment. If WA has bonds to the specific retailers then they could lose when that debt suffers. Beyond that I suspect the general downturn will hurt all p2p platforms e.g unsecured business loans and to a slightly lesser extent secured business loans.
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romy
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Post by romy on Nov 16, 2017 11:36:37 GMT
These figures for the UK don't look such a clear trend - 2016, 2013 and 2012 all worse than 2017 (even when extrapolate for whole year) in terms of numbers of employees www.retailresearch.org/whosegonebust.php |
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dermot
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Post by dermot on Nov 21, 2017 10:35:58 GMT
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Post by explorep2p on Nov 23, 2017 22:36:39 GMT
On my various travels in the US, I've always been surprised at the huge numbers (compared to the UK) of shopping malls and large stores, it has never seemed financially viable to me in most locations. If this article is correct, and the same woes beset the UK, I wonder which P2P platforms will be most exposed? www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-retail-debt/It is a totally different retail structure in places like the US and Australia, where a lot of spending takes place in shopping centres. There are very few shopping centres in the UK and the ones that exist are performing well. It has been clear for a long time that high street shops selling 'stuff' and going to be in trouble because you can probably have the same goods delivered within hours by Amazon at half the price, or more interesting goods from sites like etsy. In addition, the younger millennials are moving aggressively away from owning lots of the sorts of possessions that traditional high street shops used to sell. Shops selling food, clothes and providing services are less at risk. The number of shops in the UK selling 'stuff' will probably keep dropping quickly. This means that retail shops located in less than prime locations will probably continue to drop in value, and in some cases have close to zero value. However there does not seem to be many P2P platforms in the UK, or Europe, with material exposure to assets like this.
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m2btj
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Post by m2btj on Nov 24, 2017 8:25:47 GMT
Many years ago I was worked for a major soft drinks manufacturer looking to develop business channels in shopping malls. Malls were being re-positioned as a family leisure experience with the development of child care facilities, coffee shops, restaurants & food courts. Shopping would be become a shared family day out & an no longer a chore. Mall management companies believed that attracting high levels of footfall would result in retail sales uplift. This was the approach being developed in the US. I was in the US in 2008 & visited some of the 'ghost' malls during the global economic meltdown. Retailers need to innovate & evolve to survive.
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jo
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Post by jo on Nov 24, 2017 8:37:25 GMT
I would be a lot more worried about UK malls if it stopped being a pain in the a** to park.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Nov 24, 2017 9:31:37 GMT
There will never be a retail "apocolpyse". Not one of any significant duration anyway.
Most financial commentators, and even people posting on this forum, are speaking from a view point of financial literacy.
What they don't understand is that the vast majority of the human race are unable to ignore the call of their genetic imprinting to consume.
A classic example is that a significant proportion of the population are still paying off their debts from last years christmas presents, something unthinkable to most of us I am guessing.
Sure if we have a credit crunch the taps get turned off but eventually they will get turned back on again, as that is that is the direction of the global economy.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Nov 26, 2017 9:18:46 GMT
I think the problem is that the economy, including retail, wants a lot of consumers to buy (3% more spending each year, ideally, it seems), while simultaneously wanting fewer workers, or lower wage bills. Squaring that circle is challenging, unless the money for consumption can be found from someplace other than wages. Borrowing just kicks the can down the road.
If you have investments, or key skills, you are fine, but industry can't sell a million iphone-x s to Bill Gates, if he's the only guy with spare funds.
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m2btj
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Post by m2btj on Nov 26, 2017 9:39:10 GMT
I would be a lot more worried about UK malls if it stopped being a pain in the a** to park. The car parks themselves have become huge income streams. Retailers are very aware that local authorities hiking charges each year is killing trade.
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Post by crabbyoldgit on Dec 5, 2017 23:56:50 GMT
Sorry the high street is finished, why would i wish too to spend 4 hrs,drive time plus draging around a miserable high street to find the product is not available .If it is its availabe 10% more expense and pay £4 parking for the pleasure, plus fuel and other transport costs.
The web is just stunning , compeditive, fast reliable delivery times , legal recourse in problem resolving. Never required the retailer is teriffied of bad feedback.
I now pay about £4 a month for home delivery for my supermarket shopping, i can not even drive fuel wise to a supermarket for that a month, the nearest is 9 miles away. The man gives me a 1hr slot and carrys it in and puts it on the kitchen table. But the biggest saving is the control over the bill, if its over budget just cut back before cashing out at the virtual checkout. Also no impulse buys , you just do not see them.
Example this week ,local plumbers merchant, boiler spare £138 , wait 3 days, plus 18 mile drive to collect . Web , £48.99 , inc delivery,order by 1500 , on site by 1200hrs next day. They only survive by selling at massive discounts to the trade who charge full wack to the end customer as a bonus profit margin. The motor trade is trade worst , discounts of 60% are common compared to the retail trade.
To be honest if i never set foot in a retail shop again i will be a happy man, sorry for the rant.
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