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Post by wightknight on Nov 14, 2017 16:05:40 GMT
I've been steadily reducing my Lendy portfolio, unfortunately the defaults (suspensions in Lendy speak) have been catching up on me quicker than the sale queue!
I've now got my portfolio down to about 12k, because of the reduction, 1/3 of the portfolio is not tradeable, through suspension or default.
I'm not sure of my strategy from here on out, obviously nothing I can about the bad 1/3 - I've pretty much lost confidence in Lendy, what I'm worried about is the effect these bad loans are having on Lendy itself: will it go under, how many more bad loans are out there with inflated valuations, will it just stagnate because no new investors come onboard?
Do I just sit on what I have remaining, hoping that gains in the good side of the portfolio cover some of the losses on the bad side? Or is it too much of a risk now and should I get everything out that I can?
Interested in anyones take on this.
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Nov 14, 2017 16:07:20 GMT
Whatever makes you feel comfortable.
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Post by wightknight on Nov 14, 2017 16:11:25 GMT
Whatever makes you feel comfortable. Feeling too comfortable with these loans is what got me into this mess  No, I was more after a reality check, ie am I being too pessimistic about recovery chances and Lendy's future?
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bugs4me
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Post by bugs4me on Nov 14, 2017 16:53:09 GMT
Whatever makes you feel comfortable. Feeling too comfortable with these loans is what got me into this mess No, I was more after a reality check, ie am I being too pessimistic about recovery chances and Lendy's future? Personally I have no idea regarding the recovery chances but I do not feel at this stage LY's future is in doubt. I'm gradually winding down my involvement with a couple of platforms although there may be a delay with that strategy until if or when there is a full or partial repayment on the defaults. Overall though I'm ahead of the game with these two platforms. Bearing in mind that the vast majority of lenders do not visit this forum then it's very easy to become pessimistic regarding the future viability of a (or any) platform. The most important indicator is whether the platform is still able to fund new loan 'opportunities'. Only when that cash starts to dry up is when there could be a more widespread loss of platform confidence. I don't really believe you are in a mess unless your strategy is causing you sleepless nights. If it is then change it until you do feel comfortable (again). There is though little you can do with any suspended/defaulted loans as that's the nature of P2P. All my personal thoughts and not advice in any way which I'm not qualified to give.
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Post by wightknight on Nov 14, 2017 17:07:20 GMT
Feeling too comfortable with these loans is what got me into this mess No, I was more after a reality check, ie am I being too pessimistic about recovery chances and Lendy's future? Personally I have no idea regarding the recovery chances but I do not feel at this stage LY's future is in doubt. I'm gradually winding down my involvement with a couple of platforms although there may be a delay with that strategy until if or when there is a full or partial repayment on the defaults. Overall though I'm ahead of the game with these two platforms. Bearing in mind that the vast majority of lenders do not visit this forum then it's very easy to become pessimistic regarding the future viability of a (or any) platform. The most important indicator is whether the platform is still able to fund new loan 'opportunities'. Only when that cash starts to dry up is when there could be a more widespread loss of platform confidence. I don't really believe you are in a mess unless your strategy is causing you sleepless nights. If it is then change it until you do feel comfortable (again). There is though little you can do with any suspended/defaulted loans as that's the nature of P2P. All my personal thoughts and not advice in any way which I'm not qualified to give. Thanks for your thoughts. No sleepless nights luckily, never invest anything I can't afford to lose in any single platform/investment - doesn't mean I like losing it though... At the moment I guess I am comfortable with my remaining portfolio in Lendy, my concern is whats the best way to maximise return from here? I'm certainly not comfortable with increasing my portfolio from here, but I could see my confidence returning depending on how Lendy handle these defaults and if they improve the the DD on new loans. That only leaves staying as I am or reducing to only hold my bad loans. But then I haven't yet got an alternative investment to move that money to.
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Post by loftankerman on Nov 14, 2017 17:17:14 GMT
I only have 4k left in Lendy, split fairly evenly between two loans, one of which I expect will be okay and the other probably okay enough, eventually. I decided to move out in about March. Lendy exhibit concerning behaviour that I associate with the corporate desperation that I saw in my working life, and that didn't always end well. I'm concerned about them but their future is probably still sufficiently within their hands to resolve or not. My reluctance to risk any money with them is based on the fact that I can't have much confidence in what I am told, and have no idea of the scope of what neither I nor Lendy are being told or can't discover. If I were to feel okay about that scenario then I might as well start taking financial advice off my old mate Stuey when I bump into him near the village betting shop of a morning. To me it makes sense to just go away.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Nov 14, 2017 21:48:43 GMT
/mod hat off
I have similarly reduced for a variety of reasons .. too much spin, too many clearly dodgy borrowers (with equally dodgy VRs), attempted rate reduction to <=8% ('safer borrowers' .. yeah, pull the other one), 'Hotel California' SM (you can list DFL parts but new tranches will arrive faster than the queue moves .. and some arrive with cashback, which you can't compete with), 'splash' on Cowes rather than minding the knitting, new found loan statuses like 'suspended', and yea still the FCA haven't signed them off (hence no ISA). I will stick with what I've got which won't sell easily, and pray over the defaulted ones, but I'm not going to poke any more into the lobster pot.
I doubt the platform will sink any time soon (famous last words), but it isn't going to grow very fast in the current climate, and property WILL go into reverse at some point (probably starting with stupidly priced London pads, IMO). The current climate is almost certainly too negative, but then 12 months ago it was over the top in the other direction (with a lot more stuff seemingly hidden from view, it must be said). Don't invest what you can't afford to lose (or have tied up for years), diversify across loans, platforms, and asset classes, and don't fret .. 'worse things happen at sea'.
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Post by wightknight on Nov 14, 2017 22:01:46 GMT
'worse things happen at sea'. Yikes, I hope not I'm a marine engineer....
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Nov 14, 2017 22:25:13 GMT
with diversification of equal amounts across a range of loans which seemed OK but where some have turned out not to be, then with capital return but loss of interest, one might make 6%. Or alternatively lose capital. As others have pointed out elsewhere, it's about DD, to exclude some loans, not diversification alone.
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bugs4me
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Post by bugs4me on Nov 14, 2017 23:17:58 GMT
<snip> my concern is whats the best way to maximise return from here? I'm certainly not comfortable with increasing my portfolio from here, but I could see my confidence returning depending on how Lendy handle these defaults and if they improve the the DD on new loans. That only leaves staying as I am or reducing to only hold my bad loans. But then I haven't yet got an alternative investment to move that money to. Like just about everyone involved with P2P we're all after maximising returns but not at any (reckless) cost. Currently I'm sitting on funds earning far less than would be the case if they were fully invested with certain platforms. In my case though, once the confidence goes then I prefer to simply exit. I'm not suggesting that any platform is going to pinch the money - that would be covered anyway by their PI insurance but more to do with their loan quality, lack of transparency in presenting loan opportunities, highly doubtful VR's, borrower histories, on-going monitoring or rather a lack of, etc, etc. Once I feel there is a cavalier attitude towards lenders funds then that's another negative in my book. If it was the platform's own money, would they proceed with the loan? - I suspect in many cases the answer is a firm no. So I would prefer to see idle funds in my bank account rather than lost funds. It's that simple in my strategy.
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webwizard
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Post by webwizard on Nov 15, 2017 7:18:29 GMT
I'm not suggesting that any platform is going to pinch the money - that would be covered anyway by their PI insurance but more to do with their loan quality, lack of transparency in presenting loan opportunities, highly doubtful VR's, borrower histories, on-going monitoring or rather a lack of, etc, etc. Once I feel there is a cavalier attitude towards lenders funds then that's another negative in my book. If it was the platform's own money, would they proceed with the loan? - I suspect in many cases the answer is a firm no. For me as a new investor over the last 14 months, I can only invest based upon the information provided by the platform. This forum has been invaluable in discovering more information about the loans but as I review the information provided in the updates it is a joke. Very little information on each update or 'no change' and then a sudden suspension sounds like a lack of transparency and that is undermining all confidence. The longer this goes on the more it seems like deliberate obfuscation. I would feel happier if there was disclosure about the risk and then make an informed decision.
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Post by loftankerman on Nov 15, 2017 9:02:07 GMT
'worse things happen at sea'. Yikes, I hope not I'm a marine engineer.... In my time at sea (1963-1970), I was on vessels that were (a) on fire, twice (b) in collision and (c) adrift in mid Atlantic with a flooding engine room. I served on the lady whose funnel appears to the left in 1966 and she was wrecked at Genoa in April 1970 with the loss of 20 lives. Globally, such events are still commonplace but just don't achieve much prominence through the normal news channels. I'm not sure how to factor this knowledge and experience into investment decisions though.
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 15, 2017 9:14:50 GMT
Yikes, I hope not I'm a marine engineer.... In my time at sea (1963-1970), I was on vessels that were (a) on fire, twice (b) in collision and (c) adrift in mid Atlantic with a flooding engine room. I served on the lady whose funnel appears to the left in 1966 and she was wrecked at Genoa in April 1970 with the loss of 20 lives. Globally, such events are still commonplace but just don't achieve much prominence through the normal news channels. I'm not sure how to factor this knowledge and experience into investment decisions though.Steer clear of lending on boats ? That would have helped a few of us in FS
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Post by bluechip on Nov 15, 2017 9:27:10 GMT
I've got just shy of £10k left in, every repayment email I receive I hop on and withdraw. Sold everything I can, only those late or with £100k plus in the queue ahead of me to sell I have left. Applying the exact same strategy with FS, but I have more with them and it's going nowhere fast. MT was very good though, sold up within a couple of days when I decided to purge my P2P porfolio.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Nov 15, 2017 10:48:13 GMT
Threads like this one regularly prompt me to question why Lendy is still amongst my larger platform holdings. My account is at maybe 75% of its peak, but that's down to loan repayments running well ahead of new loan launches in the last 6 months, not an active strategy of reduction. Am I kidding myself? Should I join the apparent rush for the exit?
For what it's worth, my current conclusion is still No, with the following logic:
a) I've been with SavingStream / Lendy for long enough that broadly 1/3rd of my account value is "accumulated profit". That has no bearing on how keen I am to protect it, but the fact I've yet to lose a penny on Lendy (unlike several other platforms) or receive any support from the Provision Fund (I've not been in the loans that did) counts for something, IMO.
b) The growing list of suspended and defaulted Lendy loans certainly gives cause for concern / caution, but a combination of some basic DD and regular monitoring of this Forum has kept me out of most of those that hit problems. I've small sums in the 2 Exeter DFLs and a little in Marylebone, but I'm less worried about potential losses there than I am about several long-running headaches I have on Funding Secure. When you play with fire, you have to assume you'll get burned sometimes.
c) It's still early days in terms of proven recoveries, but I'm reasonably comfortable with Lendy's management of their overdue and defaulted loans to date. Progress towards PBL exit is monitored regularly, IMS reports obtained throughout DFLs, emerging problems are faced up to pretty promptly and a robust approach taken with defaulting borrowers. I wish I could say the same about all of the platforms I use! I certainly think Lendy have a way to go to reach "best in class" for managing problem loans (Assetz Capital being the best of mine) but indications so far are encouraging.
d) I look across my other platforms, and those I don't use, and I don't see many better options out there to generate similar asset-secured P2P returns. If other platforms were launching good new loans, I'd certainly trim my Lendy exposure a little, but they're not. There's a been a market-wide dearth of decent quality secured P2P loans (big enough to secure a 4-figure stake in, anyway) for the last 6-9 months.
e) There's a lot of talk of "Lendy facing problems" / "Lendy going to the wall", but I don't see that as likely (perhaps naively). It's our capital that's at risk, not Lendy's. They cover their origination costs upfront, pay interest (both to us and themselves) out of retained lender funds, and deduct recovery costs from the funds ultimately recovered once assets are sold. It's certainly possible / probable that the Provision Fund will be drained and then withdrawn, but I've never benefited from it nor assumed I ever would. Worst case, as I see it, is that new loan origination ceases altogether and the existing loan book goes into a managed run-off. But, although it may take years, I'd expect to get the bulk of my capital back eventually under such a scenario; a risk I accept for the returns I've enjoyed to date and, in the main, continue to receive.
But thank-you to those sharing contrary opinions. I will continue to keep my Lendy stake under review!
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