ashtondav
Member of DD Central
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Post by ashtondav on Nov 19, 2017 16:11:57 GMT
Has there been any analysis of seasonality in p2p borrowing? I would assume December weak and January strong, also September strong with parents borrrowing to give kids money for school college. But is there any data?
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Post by kilozulu on Nov 19, 2017 16:23:41 GMT
Has there been any analysis of seasonality in p2p borrowing? I would assume December weak and January strong, also September strong with parents borrrowing to give kids money for school college. But is there any data? I heard from some people there that in personal lending Decmber is a killing, everybody borrows to spend on trinkets, September strong as well. Summer is weak.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2017 18:46:16 GMT
Normally it goes slow in December with a pick up in mid/end Jan (so we lose about 6 weeks) similar at the end of July until end of August. Not bothered to check figures just 4+ years of experience. So you over lend in November as much as possible and over lend in July to end up with a good average.
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Post by df on Nov 19, 2017 20:42:35 GMT
Has there been any analysis of seasonality in p2p borrowing? I would assume December weak and January strong, also September strong with parents borrrowing to give kids money for school college. But is there any data? Probably not, it would be very difficult to gather an accurate data covering all existing p2p platforms. In my observation, there is no particular seasonal pattern in loan flow. It was mentioned several times in this forum that it is slower in summer because most professionals involved in the process are usually on holiday, but I didn't notice any downfall during that period. In theory, events such as Christmas and the start of school year could affect the borrowing pattern, but unsecured borrowing to "individuals" is a very small part of p2p. I have accounts with Zopa and RS. I don't think RS rates drop this summer was seasonal, but Zopa did stop accepting any new money last December, which can subscribe to the theory of weak December.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Nov 20, 2017 8:05:06 GMT
Business loans (eg FC) generally die for several weeks through Dec/Jan, presumably due to mass vacations, so it was always good for SM sales. Not sure about personal loans.
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ashtondav
Member of DD Central
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Post by ashtondav on Nov 20, 2017 13:12:50 GMT
But I cant find data from the commercial sector either, or BoE.
I do seem to remember, in the days when you could choose rates that borrower demand at zopa was very strong in January and weak in December.
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Post by kilozulu on Nov 22, 2017 14:15:52 GMT
Normally it goes slow in December with a pick up in mid/end Jan (so we lose about 6 weeks) similar at the end of July until end of August. Not bothered to check figures just 4+ years of experience. So you over lend in November as much as possible and over lend in July to end up with a good average. Do you mean loans to business or loans to consumers, or both? Because for business lending this makes perfect sense, but not sure about consumer lending.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2017 16:01:39 GMT
I gave up on loans to people some time ago. When I did it you used to think that you would get a slight improvement in January and September (school/uni start and holiday paying) but I don't think facts support it.
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Post by easteregg on Nov 22, 2017 17:57:14 GMT
Has there been any analysis of seasonality in p2p borrowing? I would assume December weak and January strong, also September strong with parents borrrowing to give kids money for school college. But is there any data? I believe that there was data on Zopa and RateSetter to show a strong seasonal relationship. Lending was strongest in Q1 and weakest in Q3. Unfortunately I can no longer find this information!
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Post by justdabbling on Nov 22, 2017 18:03:44 GMT
I recall comments in the run up to the end of the tax year that some lenders were withdrawing p2p cash to top up flexible cash isas so as to ensure they retained the tax shelter. The same might apply to pension contributions.
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