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Post by stanyko on Jul 27, 2014 15:49:13 GMT
I was playing with stats (Bondora) and it surprised me, that there's no corelation between loan term and default rate. I expected to confirm, the higher default rate for longer loan term.
Can you confirm the same? Do you have any knowledge about it?
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tonyr
Member of DD Central
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Post by tonyr on Aug 2, 2014 16:47:10 GMT
I was playing with stats (Bondora) and it surprised me, that there's no corelation between loan term and default rate. I expected to confirm, the higher default rate for longer loan term. Can you confirm the same? Do you have any knowledge about it? I did the analysis for the Funding Circle loan book a year or so ago and loans were much less likely to default in the first three months and also loans over £50k were much less likely to default. I know that's not the question you asked, and I'm no longer with Funding Circle, so you should do your own research (if you are with FC you can download the loan book).
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Aug 6, 2014 22:29:21 GMT
True, but there was, last I looked, no significant correlation of default with the PLANNED term. Is first 3 months were good for 12 month loans and for 5 years loans, both. After that there was some sort of regular monthly mortality rate, with a couple of maybe significant spikes at 9 or 21 months, iirc.
There really aren't enough data points for good analysis .. Eg 18 month loans are pretty new, and 14 month Loans almost unique.
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Post by stanyko on Aug 10, 2014 13:24:30 GMT
True, but there was, last I looked, no significant correlation of default with the PLANNED term. Is first 3 months were good for 12 month loans and for 5 years loans, both. After that there was some sort of regular monthly mortality rate, with a couple of maybe significant spikes at 9 or 21 months, iirc. There really aren't enough data points for good analysis .. Eg 18 month loans are pretty new, and 14 month Loans almost unique. Yes, more data would help. So we need to wait for it.
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Post by tybalt on Aug 10, 2014 14:06:41 GMT
Again insufficient data for statistically valid sample but ThinCats seems to suggest that loans fail quickly, first six months or not at all.
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