Mike
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Post by Mike on Dec 15, 2017 23:50:40 GMT
I'm about to get married and am struggling to manage my (soon to be our) exposure to the global economy. As a director of my company I choose to make substantial pension contributions in lieu of life insurance to a SIPP, as well as a salary and dividends. This year I am subscribing to VCTs to relieve all my income tax.
Mainly, I have a pension pot to invest and don't really know how to hedge myself against the usual suspects...
I'm over exposed to P2P (majority AC 30DAA), over-exposed to UK property in a small area (Sunderland via Crowd2Let) considering we rent in London*, and generally over exposed to global equity via ISAs, SIPP, and CGT-generating shares.
*Well.. London rent is under-priced IMO so renting here and buying in the north makes sense to me and exposure to property (whichever way it goes since we're likely to move North) is likely a good thing for us.
Any comments? I feel like I'm heading for trouble in the next stock market downturn and don't really know how best to hedge that. I'd say I'm 50% P2P and 30% equity. All the usual bank accounts and saving accounts are being used.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Dec 16, 2017 17:49:48 GMT
Downturns will happen but you can’t time them. The important thing is to have an asset allocation that matches your risk tolerance.
Lower risk - more gov bonds/cash Higher risk- more equities
I like high risk high return but I don’t really care if the market crashes, will be buying with any new funds
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 17, 2017 19:39:06 GMT
Right now bonds look pretty high risk to me, so I concur. The 'what's the share price today' mantra is pretty meaningless unless you plan to sell/buy .. just as the 'what's my house worth' isn't very interesting unless you plan to buy a spare, or downsize (or die) or something. I think I'll invest in good dividend paying companies which can do excellent business with either governments, or the few thousand billionaires who will soon have all the money (prior to the revolution). 8>.
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Post by p2player on Dec 17, 2017 21:05:12 GMT
I’m with paul123 in that I don’t buy the equities high risk mantra either. It’s pure FUD spouted by those who don’t comprehend the stockmarket and have no desire to do so. Im also not too sure I follow the OPs thought process. Concerned about the stockmarket and yet only 30% exposed, whilst being 50% exposed to P2P and seemingly not at all fussed about being exposed to a still young industry with very basic regulation,limited transparency and that has yet to see a full economic lifecycle. Doesn’t make sense to me ! I agree with @gsv3miac. If you are a true stockmarket investor your world does not revolve around the curent share price. By and large the stockmarket rewards patience,and in the long run, even things like 2008 have limited impact (and I don’t buy the doomsday criers who say we’re due another 2008).
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Dec 17, 2017 22:36:33 GMT
I’m with paul123 in that I don’t buy the equities high risk mantra either. It’s pure FUD spouted by those who don’t comprehend the stockmarket and have no desire to do so. Im also not too sure I follow the OPs thought process. Concerned about the stockmarket and yet only 30% exposed, whilst being 50% exposed to P2P and seemingly not at all fussed about being exposed to a still young industry with very basic regulation,limited transparency and that has yet to see a full economic lifecycle. Doesn’t make sense to me ! I agree with @gsv3miac. If you are a true stockmarket investor your world does not revolve around the curent share price. By and large the stockmarket rewards patience,and in the long run, even things like 2008 have limited impact (and I don’t buy the doomsday criers who say we’re due another 2008). Thanks. OP is fussed about P2P exposure -- hence the vast majority is in QAA and 30DAA in preparation for a more thorough exit, indeed the point of this thread was meant to be finding a non-equity investment for that P2P money. Thanks for the comments about equities and risks associated. I tend to agree but have been told otherwise by people more seasoned than I, so it's good to hear some other views to balance theirs. Probably I need to get myself a decent financial advisor since there are life choices that will need cash lump sums of varying amounts in the next 5 years..
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ozboy
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Post by ozboy on Dec 17, 2017 22:42:15 GMT
"decent financial advisor", Good Luck with that one! To be fair, they DO exist, it's just that haystacks and needles come to mind. (DECLARATION: I've sold just about everything in my time, including a five year stint as a "Financial Advisor" with a reputable firm.)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2017 9:48:48 GMT
I think you have to sort FAs by trial.
Take 20% of your capital and give it to the one you like, run them for 5 years, if they make more (including their fees) than you did with the 80% of the capital then, give them more, if they made less then sack them and repeat. I've sacked 2 so far.
I spent a lot of time with the big guys, talking, I found them ignorant, arrogant and unpleasant with a keen eye on regulation and systemised paperwork but very little interest in my expectations despite spending hours on finding out "what you like". Beware their enormous surveys, they have mainly been written by people who think "it is raining in Tokyo also" is good English. If you do do their surveys, sit down with them first and make sure you both agree what the term "risk" means for example.
Don't believe their "historical figures", these are normally based on a "perfect portfolio" which amazingly they never actually offered to a client, but they would have... I really dug down deep with two companies to look at their so called historical results and they were very very doubtful. I also asked to talk to other clients, no, there was no way I could speak to other clients. I even went to St James lunches to talk to other clients and was underimpressed by the results that they were "delighted" with.
Finally I chose one of the smaller guys in one of my local towns, I've run him for getting on 5 years, I have two reviews annually, we exchange emails on regular world events and still he has only 20% of my capital and he is beating our targets and in the last three years he is beating my performance including his fees.
Do ask for succession planning from the business you sign up with. A friend is a "MD" at St James and she is nothing more than a clerk, with no interest in what happens to her "company" once she stops work. Titles like Director mean nothing to the big guys, but it normally means "salesman".
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alanp
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Post by alanp on Dec 18, 2017 12:32:41 GMT
I'd look for an Independent FA as opposed to an FA. When you settle on one, make sure you have an open & honest conversation about what you want out of the relationship, and how what they have under their control, fits within your overall family financial situation. If they don't understand the bigger picture they will be working partly in the dark.
As for the RISK relationship between Equities & Bonds I prefer to refer to volatility. Bonds are less volatile than equities so will tend to dampen down the larger swings that can happen to equities.
That works both ways, the more Bonds you have in the portfolio the lower the overall growth is likely to be when markets are going up, but conversely you would expect to see a smaller "drop" when markets are going down.
What's your objective? All out growth? Wealth preservation?
What's your real toerance of loss as, and when, markets drop like a stone?
My wife and I have AVC pots that must be taken at the point of retrirement (can be taken entirely tax free) in 3-8 years time (no set plan or date).
They have been 100% equities since we started them but now starting to dial back the equity exposure as obtaining growth becomes less important than preserving the gains made to date. As a consequence bonds are now part of the portfolio, and the %'age will grow over the next few years as this suits our objective. The last thing we want to "risk" is another couple of years of great gains followed by a drastic slump just as we want to take the cash and sail off into the sunset.
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Post by p2player on Dec 18, 2017 13:08:18 GMT
To comment on @bobo
The first is that you have to accept risk surveys as a fact of life in the modern “ finance sector. You just need to grin and bear it and don’t shoot the messenger, they are only doing what the boxtickers in compliance are asking them to when they ask you to do a risk survey.
A quick tip for helping find the needles in the haystack is to ask them if they operate exclusively off model portfolios and approved stock lists.
if the answer comes yes (more likely with larger firms), then their hands are going to be tied by what various committees and the compliance bods allow them to. That’s not to say they cannot to a good job with model portfolios and approved stock lists, but you’ll have to tread especially carefully when choosing someone who operates on that style (I.e. you don’t just want a human passive robot).
If the answer comes no (more likely with mid-market downwards) then they are more likely to devote more time to structuring something a bit more bespoke for you.
Bear in mind all this depends how much you are bringing to the table because the regulatory environment involves a lot of paperwork and also constrains their remuneration. Don’t expect anyone to jump for joy if you’re only presenting them with £50k for example. Compliance and remuneration aside, you can’t realisticallly expect them to do much with small sums as it is hard to buy meaningful amounts of equities, achieve reasonable diversification etc.
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Post by p2player on Dec 18, 2017 13:12:45 GMT
make sure you have an open & honest conversation about what you want out of the relationship, and how what they have under their control, fits within your overall family financial situation. If they don't understand the bigger picture they will be working partly in the dark. The importance of that statement cannnot be underestimated ! The same goes for being honest on the paperwork, including the tedious and seemingly pointless risk survey.
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Dec 18, 2017 13:22:44 GMT
make sure you have an open & honest conversation about what you want out of the relationship, and how what they have under their control, fits within your overall family financial situation. If they don't understand the bigger picture they will be working partly in the dark. The importance of that statement cannnot be underestimated ! The same goes for being honest on the paperwork, including the tedious and seemingly pointless risk survey. When I exposed myself to an IFA, with a highly prudent profile (I did all the yadda yadda but what I said to them was "more to lose than to gain"). Anyway so they managed to lose um 20% maybe (in 2009-11, how's that for contrarian) and I pointed out that was the question they asked in the profiling questionnaire, so really I was obliged to stop.
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ozboy
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Post by ozboy on Dec 18, 2017 15:11:05 GMT
make sure you have an open & honest conversation about what you want out of the relationship, and how what they have under their control, fits within your overall family financial situation. If they don't understand the bigger picture they will be working partly in the dark. The importance of that statement cannnot be underestimated ! The same goes for being honest on the paperwork, including the tedious and seemingly pointless risk survey. If they don't understand the bigger picture, bin them, FAST. It's called "Know your Client", or it used to be. It's their job , a half decent IFA will uncover and know everything. I would dig and know if they were leaving their wife/husband, had a lover/mistress/es, were disinheriting their child/ren, had loads of cash squirreled offshore, etc, etc. I was rather thorough!
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 18, 2017 16:59:32 GMT
Many year ago I actually qualified as an IFA, which turned out to be cheaper (my ex-company paid, by way of retraining), and quicker, and more fun, than actually employing one .. and with just one client (me) the PI insurance was negligible. On the downside, my IFA (me) has never managed to beat my own performance, but the amount of surveying (of myself) which I needed to do was minimal (some documenting, I admit, but rummaging for answers was not necessary). You have to enjoy it though, it is quite time consuming, especially as the tax/legislative goalposts get moved rather too often - if you don't enjoy it, it's indeed needle hunting time.
IMO you need to at least know enough to spot a plonker (someone operating a cookie cutter business) ASAP .. if you talk to two or three and compare notes you can often figure out who is faking it (same with electricians, heating engineers, car mechanics, or anything else, IME). And it WILL cost money in fees .. even IFAs have to eat (but not, necessarily, at Michelin starred restaurants).
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