bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Jul 30, 2014 18:55:11 GMT
If my cutting and pasting is correct there is £5.6m on offer on the primary market and £4.85m on offer on the AM. A few more months like this and AH's prediction that they will do £100m this year will start to look credible.
Do you think that AC has enough buyers?
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Jul 30, 2014 19:13:56 GMT
Do you think that AC has enough buyers? IMHO, no. Then again, if AC have enough underwriters maybe they don't need to! I suppose it all depends on how expensive the underwriters are.
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bernard
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Post by bernard on Jul 30, 2014 19:38:51 GMT
I think they would have the end buyer at higher rates, whereas rates are dropping for loan quality becoming riskier. Underwrite demand is currently driving the process, a lot of which is on trust. I wonder how that ends .. Similar drop in loan quality across p2p lending space imho, very bubbly feel.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Jul 30, 2014 20:12:21 GMT
I wonder how that ends .. Similar drop in loan quality across p2p lending space imho, very bubbly feel. I suppose we should expect that as more and more lenders chase the pool of borrowers.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jul 30, 2014 20:28:03 GMT
I think they would have the end buyer at higher rates, whereas rates are dropping for loan quality becoming riskier. Underwrite demand is currently driving the process, a lot of which is on trust. I wonder how that ends .. Similar drop in loan quality across p2p lending space imho, very bubbly feel. Surely that is supposition ? It could well be that its not increasing underwriter demand for loans which is driving the process, but rather underwriter demands on fees (i.e. the contra) - and the need to use them - which is driving down rate available to non-underwriting lenders. Just saying its an alternative scenario.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Jul 30, 2014 20:58:28 GMT
The [moderated to remove name] P******T B******t Apartments loan finished on TC a few days ago. AC needn't have accepted it. They must think that they have the underwriting capacity.
There is a post today on one of the £2m loans which make up the £6m in total stating that they expect it to refinance (away from AC implied). If this happens (as Samford71 says) it will release a lot of bids for lending.
MOD EDIT: On the face of it this appears to be identifying the borrower so have masked. If this is not the case, PM the admin team.
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j
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Post by j on Jul 30, 2014 22:48:48 GMT
It's a bit of a vicious circle. Rates are dropping, security/ltv seems to be slowly reducing, underwriters so far have been happy to take the hit & they are compensated for it (obviously well enough to carry on regardless), normal lenders feel it serves them better, understandably, to wait for units on AM as there is no incentive to pledge money & wait for long draw downs.
As someone said, there's a bubbly feel to all this, be it for normal lenders or underwriters. When will it burst is the real quesion
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Jul 30, 2014 23:09:54 GMT
I'm not sure I see the bubble (but then perhaps many of us never do). As far as I can see on both AC and TC the lenders seem to becoming more discerning. On AC the underwriters are covering the loans at the moment, on TC many loans have failed to fill, and others have only partially filled. I don't know the depth of available underwriting, but there are probably £6m of bridging loan redemptions starting in a couple of weeks. Also I would expect things to slow down over August and early September. It will be interesting to see if the current rate of auctions is maintained.
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j
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Post by j on Jul 30, 2014 23:19:35 GMT
I think some sort of bubble, or maybe the better term to use is 'correction', will happen in the medium to long-ish future.
In terms of rate of loans, it all depends on depth of underwriter pockets, as normal lenders either wait for AM/SM, are starting to run out of cash to invest or simply have had their fill.
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Jul 31, 2014 7:42:49 GMT
I don't see a bubble in the sector (famous last words), at least not on the more established platforms. A bubble would be if lenders are all piling in at lower and lower rates (as was happening on FC last year until they introduced MLR). I see lenders resisting lower rates (if anything being more discerning), with rates edging up on both TC and RS. Also, my impression is that loan quality on TC is better than it was a year ago. I can't comment on FC as I don't go there any more.
I doubt that AC can buck the trend while there is a shortage of lenders. If new money comes in from NISAs or wherever, we might have a bubble. But not yet.
I do worry about the property bubble, which is the main thing holding me back on AC, but that's a whole other issue.
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