aju
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Post by aju on Jan 20, 2018 1:41:57 GMT
So now its ramped up a little as now I have picked up another active default in ISAcore. The curious thing from the 1st £10 one I had not noticed was that it was for a car and was taken out in August but never actually paid a penny. I'm not holding out much hope for this one.
Thats 3 defaults now in 1 month, worst for a while - 2 B's and C good rates as well.
Not panicking yet though ;-) although there are quite a few troubled ones emerging as well. If they all go bad and some are close then that's potentially another £150 in peril. One of them is a £20, a mishap on my part there, the rest are all £10, glad I kept most of the recent lend down to £10.
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Post by fuzzyiceberg on Jan 20, 2018 9:52:29 GMT
Zopa is a long term investment. Performance can only be judged over a complete cycle - say 5 years - and even then needs to take account of the maturity of the portfolio - eg a lump of new money put in say, after 3 years will distort the numbers because, as we know, defaults are not evenly spread through the life of the loan. Worrying about returns on a monthly basis is pointless. You either trust Zopa or not, recognising that they will get it wrong sometimes (clearly they underpriced loans/understated risks on Z+ until this summer, as they have said) and sometimes returns will be a bit greater than 'projected'. I have been investing with Zopa since early 2010. Overall between pre-safeguard, classic and core my annual return (allowing for losses) has been a bit over 5.2% overall. I think this is a pretty fair picture as I haven't put any new money in since late 2014, so the portfolio is fairly mature. Obviously this rate is slowly reducing over time as the higher priced early year loans are replaced with lower priced current loans but is Ok for a relatively low risk investment and, importantly, I have no reason to think Zopa's projected returns are unreasonable. I have been consistently achieving or slightly beating them.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 20, 2018 11:32:02 GMT
Zopa is a long term investment. Performance can only be judged over a complete cycle - say 5 years - and even then needs to take account of the maturity of the portfolio - eg a lump of new money put in say, after 3 years will distort the numbers because, as we know, defaults are not evenly spread through the life of the loan. Worrying about returns on a monthly basis is pointless. You either trust Zopa or not, recognising that they will get it wrong sometimes (clearly they underpriced loans/understated risks on Z+ until this summer, as they have said) and sometimes returns will be a bit greater than 'projected'. I have been investing with Zopa since early 2010. Overall between pre-safeguard, classic and core my annual return (allowing for losses) has been a bit over 5.2% overall. I think this is a pretty fair picture as I haven't put any new money in since late 2014, so the portfolio is fairly mature. Obviously this rate is slowly reducing over time as the higher priced early year loans are replaced with lower priced current loans but is Ok for a relatively low risk investment and, importantly, I have no reason to think Zopa's projected returns are unreasonable. I have been consistently achieving or slightly beating them. I agree 100% and your annual returns definitely seem to concur with mine - I've been on Zopa since 2006 so I am also very fortunate to get an early adopter bonus (0.5%) on all lending. When the new offers both ISA and non SG products I had become concerned at the seemingly high default rate in Classic which for a long time was not actually very visible until zopa introduced the default field. Admittedly it was a much higher lent amount than in the past but when it was obvious what was defaulting it was a bit of a surprise. In my case if it had been non SG it would have amounted to £600 (£300 allowing for recovery if my current experience is the norm) over the period. I concur with your sentiment of Zopa's trustworthiness despite their occasional attempts over the years to convince otherwise with seemingly obfuscated laonbook reporting and constant tweaking of reports etc. I'd personally be lost without the CSV's and Excel for my piece of mind, To their credit there are many cases where Zopa has reacted very quickly to obvious and even less obvious errors. They are very accommodating if not always in agreement and always seem prepared to listen and take stuff on board - might take a while to see this but there are many companies out there that don't have anywhere near this approach. When the maturity of the newer loans starts to kick in it will all be more obvious - it is a bit scary though sometimes especially without the SG cover but I believe there are ways to mitigate this to a degree. Mind you my approach with the £10 loans limiting is yet to be tested to the full. The other overiding thing for me is that even if I lose half my interest in defaults I'm still getting better that most current accounts at the moment can provide which in most cases is better than any bank savings can achieve. That's quite a bit of leeway I feel and as I'm only in it to cover inflation and get a bit more on top. With inflation at 3% its looking a little suspect but we'll see over time.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Jan 26, 2018 18:27:19 GMT
I've suddenly got a massive default quantity on zopa website resulting in negative earnings. There are two defaults in Core for £48 and £49 each, both starting at £50 blocks, which is too big, both B rating. plus some smaller defaults. This seems suspicious to me, B rating but pays 00.03 pence back.
The loan origination dates were when I put in a lump sum so it wasn't diversified properly. I think this seems to be the design fault, in Zopa's court.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 26, 2018 19:45:01 GMT
I've suddenly got a massive default quantity on zopa website resulting in negative earnings. There are two defaults in Core for £48 and £49 each, both starting at £50 blocks, which is too big, both B rating. plus some smaller defaults. This seems suspicious to me, B rating but pays 00.03 pence back. The loan origination dates were when I put in a lump sum so it wasn't diversified properly. I think this seems to be the design fault, in Zopa's court. I've picked up 3 defaults and an IVA (which is marked as a default but does not count as a loss - as yet) This month alone is default hell and for me the defaults so far ar 55% of my monthly interest so far in Jan. Having said that though my interest since the start of this means that this currently relates to 7.2% of interest so far potentially lost. That's the worst month I've had in non SG since I joined zopa in 2006. But I am lending much larger sums these days. One thing I am happy for at the moment isw that I only lent where I was in control at £10 loans. Can you tell me your loss in percentage of total interest so far. (defaults / (2017 annual statement Interest + January interest) as a percentage) The was a Zopa blog entry in november that kind of says what I feel in that looking at this over a short period - a month in this case - is not as realistic as over a year. Time will tell whether this is correct. My active defaults so far in ISA were made up as follows 2 core 1 plus 2 B's and 1 C1's 3 Car's 2 were taken out in June and 1 in August All were terms of 60
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jan 26, 2018 20:54:00 GMT
I can’t tell whether you have a higher default in your core without knowing the total number of loans in each market. I am sure you can find out yourself by checking your loan book. According to Zopa www.zopa.com/lending/risk-marketsC loans have less than 6.5% default and B loans have less than 4.5% default I believe the expected default for Zopa core is around 2.4% with the Project return of 4% per year.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 27, 2018 0:23:44 GMT
core=1619 loans plus=237
using that means that my default rate by loans is
core = 0.12% plus = 0.42%
but to be honest I'm not sure that knowing the loans numbers helps.
I try not to get too bogged down in estimates but rather deal in reality, default:interest received. I'm usually only interested as a whole for each side. I try to make sure I have a spread that feels right and works for me. In ISA its roughly 12%:88% plus:core split by loans. Mostly the loans are £10 or less but there were some at £20 when I took my eye off the ball for a day and lent additional money too early.
I have been quite lucky and have 27% of the ISA core covered by SG which is good as well and probably skews the real figures.
The link you gave I think has been there for a while so not sure its been updated recently. for me its all about what my return is year on year not what zopa estimates. Its my view that my return whilst similar to others will be my return and its based on how I make the spread as well as the defaults I get but more than that just because I have a default its no indicator of how much I will lose either. That's the way it has been with PreSafeguards in the past. Year on year I have faired well for me - probably just lucky as mostly my returns have been safeguarded until very recently though.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Jan 27, 2018 11:41:10 GMT
I've suddenly got a massive default quantity on zopa website resulting in negative earnings. There are two defaults in Core for £48 and £49 each, both starting at £50 blocks, which is too big, both B rating. plus some smaller defaults. This seems suspicious to me, B rating but pays 00.03 pence back. The loan origination dates were when I put in a lump sum so it wasn't diversified properly. I think this seems to be the design fault, in Zopa's court. I've picked up 3 defaults and an IVA (which is marked as a default but does not count as a loss - as yet) This month alone is default hell and for me the defaults so far ar 55% of my monthly interest so far in Jan. Having said that though my interest since the start of this means that this currently relates to 7.2% of interest so far potentially lost. That's the worst month I've had in non SG since I joined zopa in 2006. But I am lending much larger sums these days. One thing I am happy for at the moment isw that I only lent where I was in control at £10 loans. Can you tell me your loss in percentage of total interest so far. (defaults / (2017 annual statement Interest + January interest) as a percentage) The was a Zopa blog entry in november that kind of says what I feel in that looking at this over a short period - a month in this case - is not as realistic as over a year. Time will tell whether this is correct. My active defaults so far in ISA were made up as follows 2 core 1 plus 2 B's and 1 C1's 3 Car's 2 were taken out in June and 1 in August All were terms of 60 Aju, I'm not sure how this calculation helps. I have two different 2017 totals in the platform. Zopa is possibly an 18 month product, purely because of their lack of diversification for larger initial deposits. I'm envisaging/hoping that once my money is diversified into £10 lumps things will settle down. However, I have had a regular drip of defaults, and now this massive amount to create negative earnings.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 27, 2018 12:59:50 GMT
Sorry to hear you have been hit so hard and so early I'm guessing we are talking large sums and numbers of loans here. I was just offering up my position and was trying to show what my hits for defaults was at the moment and that they were in fact B and C and what they were for etc.
My other point was that whilst you can look at default rates that Zopa presents but there is no guarantee that each person will have these rates - that's the nature of averages or however they present it. It's a bit similar to the spread of interest rates too. In the old days when we had more control people would try and bag the high ones and ignore the low ones making sure their spread was good though.
For me if I've made £400 in interest so far and I get 5 loans default (£50) on me then at the values I've tried to get of Max £10 per loan its not going to hit me as hard as say 5@£40 a loan. I know that by definition @ £10 per loan I will have many more loans and therefore a relative increase in the potential for defaults on a loan by loan basis. All that said I think that this month has been my hardest hit month ever and if I have 2 more £10 loans go potentially bad then that will wipe out my interest for this month. As long as I remain fully re-invested I believe that this will even itself out.
I could of course work on the basis that if I get out early enough, even with the 1% fee, I might be able to then take the high returns in the 1st 12 months and then reinvest it again and follow the same pattern.
That last one remains to be seen a good approach but I'm sure some people will be taking this view perhaps.
I'll take a better view after 12 full months but the next few might be a bit shakey though ...
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jan 27, 2018 14:19:17 GMT
core=1619 loans plus=237 using that means that my default rate by loans is core = 0.12% plus = 0.42% If you manage to keep the default rates like those for first 18 months, then you should be happy, since the default rate for plus is 5.5%. My default rate for the plus after 7 months was 2.1%
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jan 27, 2018 14:29:43 GMT
Aju, I'm not sure how this calculation helps. I have two different 2017 totals in the platform. Zopa is possibly an 18 month product, purely because of their lack of diversification for larger initial deposits. I'm envisaging/hoping that once my money is diversified into £10 lumps things will settle down. However, I have had a regular drip of defaults, and now this massive amount to create negative earnings. the pre safeguard, the return was higher and the risk was a lot lower for prime borrowers. The Zopa classic offered Safe guard with slightly lower rate than pre-safe guard but the risk was low. The core and Plus are totally different products, they do not have provision fund. They really require reinvestment and I don't think it is just an 18 month product, possibly longer term investment products, not any instant access saving bank account with full FCS protection.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 27, 2018 16:14:23 GMT
core=1619 loans plus=237 using that means that my default rate by loans is core = 0.12% plus = 0.42% If you manage to keep the default rates like those for first 18 months, then you should be happy, since the default rate for plus is 5.5%. My default rate for the plus after 7 months was 2.1% Yeah in my dreams I feel. They will probably not be quite so forgiving over the next few months and I do agree these are 5 years term funds for which I reinvest to optimise the overall investments. One thing also is that whilst all these products, Core, Plus etc, can be judged individually but I feel it's better to judge at a higher level initially as Invest and ISA but then ultimately as Invest+ISA. In the Invest case I have considerable inertia built up in the long term reinvests to more than cover any ISA foibles. This will reduce when I move SG cover to SG covered ISA - soon I hope.
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Post by newlender on Jan 27, 2018 19:28:49 GMT
I'm now at 2000 loans in my ISA. I started it on June 19 and was fully funded by September. I have no defaults and one IVA - (the one for business purposes that some of you guys have, I think).
I've made almost £450 in interest too. The party is about to end and the hangover will soon kick in, I fear. I have quite a few Collections on their third month.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 28, 2018 1:43:31 GMT
I'm now at 2000 loans in my ISA. I started it on June 19 and was fully funded by September. I have no defaults and one IVA - (the one for business purposes that some of you guys have, I think). I've made almost £450 in interest too. The party is about to end and the hangover will soon kick in, I fear. I have quite a few Collections on their third month. There's always one who seems to get off lightly its not the end of the month yet though.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 30, 2018 23:34:01 GMT
There's still another day yet but I picked up another 2 C1 defaults, that makes 5 now only 2 more will wipe out returns this month - including early adopter. So much for £10 loans .
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