zlb
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Post by zlb on Feb 15, 2018 19:00:23 GMT
What does it mean when it says loan has now been assigned to zopa Ltd? Also, here's question. Would it be better to sell my ISA loans into holding and then move gradually back into product, in order to get rid of the £40 and £50 loans resulting from large initial deposit? Plus, once these loans are paid back, they gradually all become diversified to £10 loans, right? (I feel sure there are heaps more £50 loans than last time I looked... I'll have to compare the files) It means that Zopa is dealing with defaults recovery either SG or other. In other words they are performing recovery of varying degrees on the loan. In earlier cases (Pre April 2016) it will say P2PS instead of Zopa. Not sure selling the loans and losing 1% in the process would be the best approach unless perhaps there is a majority of loans at higher values. If there is a mix you may find the £10 ones sell quicker than the higher value either way you are paying for the privilege. Someone elsewhere suggested that the propensity to default is not down to the numbers of the loans. Having 100 £50 loans has as much likelyhood of defaults as having 500 £10 loans as the more loans there are then the more defaults. Its still to be tested in my case anyway. There is a train of thought as well in that once you have lent the money, relending over time will force the default numbers to level out more as the investment matures. That certainly seems to be the case comparing old Invest side against new ISA loans and definitely Mrs Aju to my investment bears this out to a degree. I'm also taking into consideration that even though SG is covered the defaults still occur and have a statistical bearing - I think. You cannot say what you may have lost in SG but loan per loan defaulted seems to still be a function of numbers of loans. Are you still lending at £50 - i.e. has zopa set the relend at the last higher level of lend perhaps. If it were me to be on the safe side I'd move all money to holding thats not yet lent and then relend it back onto the queues. I'm no expert here so take what I've said with a pinch of salt - my experience may not be relevant to another's. My view on the £10 loans may take another 2 years to even be provable but I think it may be the better approach - diversifying loans wise. thanks. I've written to them for clarification that risk is eventually reduced. I'll check out the stats ... not sure what you mean by it eventually panning out. Would be somewhat satisfactory to see what exactly should happen, eg all loans gradually become smaller amounts.
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aju
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Post by aju on Feb 15, 2018 19:28:30 GMT
I think what i was trying to say is my strategy for keeping to £10 loans may not actually be any better than larger loans but less of them. If in 2 years time I find that I'm still getting good rate of return and not making any real loss and i'm beating the banks - not hard I know then i'll be happy. If my defaults just snowball then it didn't really matter £10, that is.
I guess I'll never know as I'm not lending at higher rate anyway. The real issue for me was always that when SG existed larger loans did not matter if they defaulted as they were paid back early. Now in the harsher climate of no SG cover then I just tried to increase the number of smaller loans. time will tell.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Feb 18, 2018 10:34:12 GMT
I think what i was trying to say is my strategy for keeping to £10 loans may not actually be any better than larger loans but less of them. If in 2 years time I find that I'm still getting good rate of return and not making any real loss and i'm beating the banks - not hard I know then i'll be happy. If my defaults just snowball then it didn't really matter £10, that is. I guess I'll never know as I'm not lending at higher rate anyway. The real issue for me was always that when SG existed larger loans did not matter if they defaulted as they were paid back early. Now in the harsher climate of no SG cover then I just tried to increase the number of smaller loans. time will tell. Still awaiting sensible answer on loans granulating down to £10 (first answer didn't answer the question (I'd realised that this was my assumption, perhaps based on something read, but want to check). I tried the rough probability stats myself (if I understand what you refer to someone telling you once) on whether eventually £50 to a sample of one with a longer duration of time v £10x(sample of )five/shorter duration of time, therefore more than five people are involved because it is paid back more quickly) would equalise.... errr...it's a tough one. I think I'm generally going to stick with my belief that within the duration of investment I might be thinking of, that I would want £10 loans to many, rather than £50 to one. Do you know which month the SG cover will materialise in? Income for the defaulted month, or the month when the SG payment is made?
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aju
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Post by aju on Feb 18, 2018 11:25:54 GMT
I think what i was trying to say is my strategy for keeping to £10 loans may not actually be any better than larger loans but less of them. If in 2 years time I find that I'm still getting good rate of return and not making any real loss and i'm beating the banks - not hard I know then i'll be happy. If my defaults just snowball then it didn't really matter £10, that is. I guess I'll never know as I'm not lending at higher rate anyway. The real issue for me was always that when SG existed larger loans did not matter if they defaulted as they were paid back early. Now in the harsher climate of no SG cover then I just tried to increase the number of smaller loans. time will tell. Still awaiting sensible answer on loans granulating down to £10 (first answer didn't answer the question (I'd realised that this was my assumption, perhaps based on something read, but want to check). I tried the rough probability stats myself (if I understand what you refer to someone telling you once) on whether eventually £50 to a sample of one with a longer duration of time v £10x(sample of )five/shorter duration of time, therefore more than five people are involved because it is paid back more quickly) would equalise.... errr...it's a tough one. I think I'm generally going to stick with my belief that within the duration of investment I might be thinking of, that I would want £10 loans to many, rather than £50 to one. Do you know which month the SG cover will materialise in? Income for the defaulted month, or the month when the SG payment is made? Interesting question ... Here is a possible method, there may be others and I hadn't really considered it until you asked. In Zopa csv data you can see an SG completed loan has resulted from a default by looking at certain columns in the alltime CSV data. The best way is to load the alltime.csv into excel (other products are available) and include the following column filters to extract the relevant data. I believe SG cover is almost immediate on the Default date but the comments field may have refining indicators (The first one I checked was an IVA on the 9th Aug 2017 but the assignment was on the 10th - it was a pickup loan and only in my ISA investment for 15 days before it defaulted). The only real way to see the SG cover cost is to examine the final 2/3 payments in the statements data for a given Borrower. So having established the SG covered defaults you need to look in the statements file for the month of the default date. Using a TEXT Filter on the "Description" field for the relevant borrower name will give all the records of payments for the relevant Borrower. The most recent 2/3 records for interest and capital will give an idea of the amount the SG fund paid out on the default. I think that will work. In my example the full loan was paid back plus 5p interest for the short time I had it. I tried a couple in my main investment alltime.csv and it seems that the comments field can be helpful in many cases if the "Set to default" is the last entry. In those cases they seem to line up by date. I have many cases though that show much activity since the SG kicked in bu that is really only relevant to Zopa as the default has been paid to me anyway. I have 88 defaults in my invest side covered by SG. That many would take quite some time to track through the statements data even though I have an excel tool I set up that contains all my statements data from day one and I can list out all payments for any given bottower. It's not something I would recommend though as the data in my invest side is huge and makes my PC work real hard when I try to build the payments for a give borrower. Anyway that's a possible approach if you wanted to. To get an accurate picture you would have to use both sets of data. Maybe when I have some spare time I will try and work the results up might be interesting. There were 8 entries (roughly 10%) that were covered by an IVA but the payments made are not in the comments field or my statements data after the default is paid. I checked one in the Invest side in this case a classic although its not important. It seems that the check for closed is not that relevant as they will only be closed if a default date exists anyway. The one I checked was defaulted in 2016 and there were actually 4 payments in the last month as they were only paying interest for the last 4 periods. The final 2 are still clearly the SG cover payments but the odd thing is that the Default date says 4/11/2016 but my statements data finishes clearly with a final payment on 22/7/2016. My statements data is correctly adding up all sections so from that the Default date is not as relevant as one might think in some cases. I would have struggled trying to find the relevant months statements for that entry without having the all the statements in one table. One other point and I can't seem to corroborate it at the moment but a while back I think there were some cleared SG ones that were defaulted from the comments but the default date field was empty. I think I noticed that a few months back so maybe Zopa fixed that anomaly now.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Feb 18, 2018 11:52:08 GMT
Still awaiting sensible answer on loans granulating down to £10 (first answer didn't answer the question (I'd realised that this was my assumption, perhaps based on something read, but want to check). I tried the rough probability stats myself (if I understand what you refer to someone telling you once) on whether eventually £50 to a sample of one with a longer duration of time v £10x(sample of )five/shorter duration of time, therefore more than five people are involved because it is paid back more quickly) would equalise.... errr...it's a tough one. I think I'm generally going to stick with my belief that within the duration of investment I might be thinking of, that I would want £10 loans to many, rather than £50 to one. Do you know which month the SG cover will materialise in? Income for the defaulted month, or the month when the SG payment is made? Interesting question ... Here is a possible method, there may be others and I hadn't really considered it until you asked. In Zopa csv data you can see an SG completed loan has resulted from a default by looking at certain columns in the alltime CSV data. The best way is to load the alltime.csv into excel (other products are available) and include the following column filters to extract the relevant data. I believe SG cover is almost immediate on the Default date but the comments field may have refining indicators (The first one I checked was an IVA on the 9th Aug 2017 but the assignment was on the 10th - it was a pickup loan and only in my ISA investment for 15 days before it defaulted). The only real way to see the SG cover cost is to examine the final 2/3 payments in the statements data for a given Borrower. So having established the SG covered defaults you need to look in the statements file for the month of the default date. Using a TEXT Filter on the "Description" field for the relevant borrower name will give all the records of payments for the relevant Borrower. The most recent 2/3 records for interest and capital will give an idea of the amount the SG fund paid out on the default. I think that will work. In my example the full loan was paid back plus 5p interest for the short time I had it. I tried a couple in my main investment and it seems that the comments field can be helpful in many cases if the "Set to default" is the last entry. In those cases they seem to line up by date. I have many cases though that show much activity since the SG kicked in bu that is really only relevant to Zopa as the default has been paid to me anyway. I have 88 defaults in my invest side covered by SG. That many would take quite some time to track through the statements data even though I have an excel tool I set up that contains all my statements data from day one and I can list out all payments for any given bottower. It's not something I would recommend though as the data in my invest side is huge and makes my PC work real hard when I try to build the payments for a give borrower. Anyway that's a possible approach if you wanted to. To get an accurate picture you would have to use both sets of data. Maybe when I have some spare time I will try and work the results up might be interesting. There were 8 entries (roughly 10%) that were covered by an IVA but the payments made are not in the comments field or my statements data after the default is paid. I checked one in the Invest side in this case a classic. It seems that the check for closed is not that relevant as they will only be closed if a default date exists. The one I checked was defaulted in 2016 and there were actually 4 payments in the last month as they were only paying interest for the last 4 periods. The final 2 are still clearly the SG cover payments but the odd thing is that the Default date says 4/11/2016 but my statements data finishes clearly with a final payment on 22/7/2016. My statements data is correctly adding up all sections so from that the Default date is not as relevant as one might think in some cases. I would have struggled trying to find the relevant months statements for that entry without having the all the statements in one table. Thanks Aju. I'd expect to see a £50 jump in overall income - that should be easy to spot - there hasn't been - however, I didn't save that last loan book download; looking at current, the loans I previously mentioned as having been moved to Zopa,have disappeared. I wonder whether they have now been referred back to the borrower, or who's 'debit card' is being referred to here: "[24/11/2017] Replacement payment requested via Direct Debit.[23/11/2017] Borrower has been notified of missed payment. " (even if the loan were closed, it should be in the file, I would have thought). On a quick check I had more £50 and £40 loans in Nov 17 than I do now - particularly higher proportion of the £40 loans - all things being logical(?), this would be likely because £40 loans a paid back a bit faster than £50. Theoretically that should answer my question about gradual loan-size reduction over time.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Feb 18, 2018 12:02:30 GMT
Actually - unable to edit above post. Only one of the five loans I have referred to in 'comment' of the excel download as assigned to Zopa, is covered by SG. Four of the loans like this below are not covered by SG. In fact it says 'false' in sg field.
"[13/11/2017] Loan has now been assigned to Zopa Limited.[06/11/2017]Set to default[03/11/2017] Borrower has been notified of missed payment.[04/10/2017] Borrower has been notified of missed payment.[03/09/2017] Borrower has been notified of missed payment.[03/08/2017] Borrower has been notified of missed payment.
"
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aju
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Post by aju on Feb 18, 2018 12:36:02 GMT
All of the loans from day one will appear in the alltime csv file. They will show as closed but they will be there that's how I can tell by looking at my invest alltime csv for today that I have 88 closed defaulted classic entries. The same applies for statements data all entries remain in the csv data I guess until you close the zopa account.
The current csv file does not have any reference to closed loans as they are removed for the current csv when they become closed (Inactive). All loans in default and not covered by SG will remain in the current file until they either are marked as "closed" or "settled". So all SG covered loans in default will only appear in the alltime.csv file.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Feb 18, 2018 13:17:30 GMT
All of the loans from day one will appear in the alltime csv file. They will show as closed but they will be there that's how I can tell by looking at my invest alltime csv for today that I have 88 closed defaulted classic entries. The same applies for statements data all entries remain in the csv data I guess until you close the zopa account. The current csv file does not have any reference to closed loans as they are removed for the current csv when they become closed (Inactive). All loans in default and not covered by SG will remain in the current file until they either are marked as "closed" or "settled". So all SG covered loans in default will only appear in the alltime.csv file. yes this is what I thought. the loans were there, but I had filtered to SG=TRUE which meant that the loans passed to Zopa were not showing. Most of my loans passed to Z are not covered by SG.
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