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Post by batchoy on Feb 22, 2015 10:24:28 GMT
At the moment I appear to have slowed the rate that my overdues are rising by totally changing my methods. Matching the crudeness of the current portfolio with the crudeness of my methods.
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jay
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Post by jay on Feb 22, 2015 19:11:11 GMT
Lurking on this board since a while , i take this opportunity to make my first post.
Yes overdue is rising now , 1/4 of my portfolio is overdue another 1/4 is 60+ days red , things arent looking good at all . My biggest problem is of course non estonian loans , especially slovakian loans , 80% 60 days + overdue and the 20 % left ? oh overdue too....All of those were A1000 with income/expense verified with the lowest interest rate possible. Nothing could prepare me to such disaster, especially after reading blogs like wiseclerk in may it looks like a trustable company . What is even more worrying,all i get in those loans history is just a "claim was filled and sent to the court" , but months laters nothing else happen.
Needless to say i am not using their new portfolio nor throwing more money into the blackhole.
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duck
Member of DD Central
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Post by duck on Feb 23, 2015 5:26:04 GMT
Well it probably won't make you feel any better jay but my Slovakian loan statistics are 89% (34 loans) at +60 days and it will be over 90% later this week. No signs of any recovery (yet?) and most didn't make any kind of payment. |
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JamesFrance
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Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Feb 23, 2015 8:17:50 GMT
Needless to say i am not using their new portfolio nor throwing more money into the blackhole. Yes it seems that they have thrown our money away by opening new markets where they have no experience and have not made trial loans using their own funds. I cannot trust their expertise again so will never make blind investments as long as they continue to remove country choice from the portfolio manager. I do feel that we have been very badly treated by this company by being ignored in their dash for growth. I wonder what the FCA would think if they had a good look at the claims of performance made on their website. I am not surprised that they are beginning to criticise P2P marketing.
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Post by reeknralf on Feb 23, 2015 9:42:54 GMT
Much the same here. Only I'm gloomier still. I feel that even if they do reintroduce selection by country, and they have promised they will with the API, I don't see this will help. My much simplified take is thus -
Estonia and Spanish loans paid 25%. After defaults, they yielded 20% and 5%, respectively. Most of us got burnt by the spanish loans, so after a transitory dip we were principally buying Estonian - portfolio yield 20%.
Estonian loans now yield 20% and Spanish loans 35%. After defaults they will both yield 15%. Thus with or without country selection - portfolio yield 15%.
15% is still more than you can get most other places, and with Bondora you also get diversification of currency and geographic risks, but it's not easy to come to terms with such a big drop in return. 20% was too good to last. Nonetheless, I'm still in mourning.
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JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Feb 23, 2015 10:54:05 GMT
Remember that that 15% is only what they think MAY happen. Most Bondora loans are in their first year of 4 or 5 years and may well default later. The figures showing current return are also distorted by the large number of recent loans which have not yet reached the time when they could default.
The historical default percentages they show for different ratings are based on old loans given ratings now which didn't exist when those loans were made.
I see high rated loans showing no income or expenditure going through the system now. How can they possibly be given a rating that isn't just guesswork?
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Post by reeknralf on Feb 23, 2015 16:36:48 GMT
Quite agree. The return could be 10, 12 or 17 just as easily as 15. The point is it won't be 20. I just used 15 as an illustrative number to show that the return on Estonian loans has been much reduced under the new ratings, so filtering by country is less important than it was.
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duck
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Post by duck on Feb 23, 2015 18:10:52 GMT
Well it probably won't make you feel any better jay but my Slovakian loan statistics are 89% (34 loans) at +60 days and it will be over 90% later this week. No signs of any recovery (yet?) and most didn't make any kind of payment. Slovakia 97.3% now at +60 days ..... well at least it can't go much higher!
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james
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Post by james on Feb 23, 2015 23:02:58 GMT
Here's my record, starting from just after first loan made:
01/12/2012 0.0%
01/01/2013 0.0%
01/02/2013 0.0%
01/03/2013 0.0%
01/04/2013 0.0%
01/05/2013 0.0%
01/06/2013 3.9%
01/07/2013 3.8%
01/08/2013 3.0%
01/09/2013 3.1%
01/10/2013 2.8%
01/11/2013 1.2%
02/12/2013 1.0%
02/01/2014 0.7%
02/02/2014 0.6%
01/03/2014 0.9%
01/04/2014 0.9%
01/05/2014 0.7%
01/06/2014 0.7%
01/07/2014 0.7%
02/08/2014 1.0%
01/09/2014 1.4%
01/10/2014 1.8%
01/11/2014 2.4%
01/12/2014 2.7%
01/01/2015 4.5%
01/02/2015 5.1%
23/02/2015 7.2%
Loans that I sold at a discount anticipating default aren't included. One reaon for the increase is that I'm no longer content just to accept Bondora allowing a few buyers to cheat sellers by buying at a discount just after a payment has been made. This has significantly reduced my ability to successfully sell loans before they default. By far the majority of the loans I made are five year Estonian A1000.
I don't think that it is coincidence that the 60 day overdue rate started increasing at a delay after the March/April 2014 changes to the way Bondora offers loans for sale.
I expect some improvement assuming that a mis-selling complaint about Bondora selling loans to those under 25 described as young professionals who were not young professionals happens and succeeds. The "professions" seem dominated by shop assistants, fitters and others with low levels of education, income and work grades, to the point that I have not yet encountered even one where the borrower was clearly really a professional.
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jay
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Post by jay on Feb 24, 2015 0:06:03 GMT
Much the same here. Only I'm gloomier still. I feel that even if they do reintroduce selection by country, and they have promised they will with the API, I don't see this will help. My much simplified take is thus - Estonia and Spanish loans paid 25%. After defaults, they yielded 20% and 5%, respectively. Most of us got burnt by the spanish loans, so after a transitory dip we were principally buying Estonian - portfolio yield 20%. Estonian loans now yield 20% and Spanish loans 35%. After defaults they will both yield 15%. Thus with or without country selection - portfolio yield 15%. 15% is still more than you can get most other places, and with Bondora you also get diversification of currency and geographic risks, but it's not easy to come to terms with such a big drop in return. 20% was too good to last. Nonetheless, I'm still in mourning. Estonia loans yielding 15% after default i can see that, but spain ? Raising their interest rate to 35% wont make them 15% after default, they already do not bother to pay , higher interest rate will get same results or worse.As for right now if you are getting your capital back on spain you can consider yourself lucky. The country filter is absolutely needed as any investment outside estonia is risky with zero collection, we dont even know if they fill the court papers right. Oh my educated guess is they f****d up on that too...Lets be honest, putting any money in those right now is madness. It just seems too easy to ask for a loan at bondora and just walk away , those loans were of a few thousands euros each, 6000-7000 euros each ,now thats profitable . Lucky guys! much easier than bank robbery and bondora are taking a share of it. I cant say i am very happy with how bondora treat its customers either, no more communication on boards, except a bot answering that they dont monitor them.... That and removing the country selection on portfolio,testing with our money and hiding the true default rates , camouflaging bad results, they are insulting our intelligence. All of this is borderline scam.
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Post by westonkevRS on Feb 24, 2015 21:46:41 GMT
Well it probably won't make you feel any better jay but my Slovakian loan statistics are 89% (34 loans) at +60 days and it will be over 90% later this week. No signs of any recovery (yet?) and most didn't make any kind of payment. Slovakia 97.3% now at +60 days ..... well at least it can't go much higher! I work for RateSetter, but I write here as an experienced risk manager and a P2P Lender. Although I've never joined Bondora, it always felt to racy for me. Bad debt rates of 80% plus ( edit -as reported by lenders on this post, not confirmed to my knowledge), with many never making a payment is not a credit risk. This is neither bad affordability nor poor ability to repay checks . This is either third party fraud (impersonation) or first party unwillingness to pay (theft). So either Slovakian fraudsters have found an easy way to bypass Bondora ID checks and have achieved mass fraud, or word has got around in some Slovakian communities that you can get a loan from this crazy Estonia loan company and not pay back as they don't chase and you cant be punished. If it's fraud I wonder if it is classified as such on your accounts, and if so then Bondora should 100% remove themselves from this market until they can close the fraud hole. There wont be a recovery, and anyone would be mad to lend in this country via Bondora. Kevin. P.S. I've worked with a bank in Slovakia as a risk consultant, and the credit reference agencies don't really exist with any meaningful credit history, data or ID tools. You need to be a bank with current account customers extending credit to your own salaried customers. There is a reason outsider monoline credit card companies have struggled in this country, other than it's small size and economic credit troubles.
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jay
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Post by jay on Feb 24, 2015 22:36:00 GMT
Ah well...thanks for answering but you got me even more worried. Looking at my slovakian loans most are defaulted but did small payment, very small payments.Those not paying anything at all are in the minority. Obviously its not only us on this forum having this problem , on german boards, its seems as catastrophic : www.p2p-kredite.com/diskussion/slowakei-t2135.html Now what can we do ? |
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james
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Post by james on Feb 24, 2015 22:49:57 GMT
I work for RateSetter, but I write here as an experienced risk manager and a P2P Lender. Although I've never joined Bondora, it always felt to racy for me. Racy but to put those bad debt figures of mine from a few posts back into context I've received around €7300 of interest. Exchange rates aren't doing kind things to me at the moment (Euro XIRR 15.5%, Pound 4.8%, both assuming zero recovery for 60+ day overdue, full recovery for shorter overdue, which is too pessimistic for my purely Estonian loans) but that was a risk I knew I was taking, I just expected fiscal easing sooner. Bad debt rates of 80% plus, with many never making a payment is not a credit risk. This is neither bad affordability nor poor ability to repay checks . This is either third party fraud (impersonation) or first party unwillingness to pay (theft). So either Slovakian fraudsters have found an easy way to bypass Bondora ID checks and have achieved mass fraud, or word has got around in some Slovakian communities that you can get a loan from this crazy Estonia loan company and not pay back as they don't chase and you cant be punished. If it's fraud I wonder if it is classified as such on your accounts, and if so then Bondora should 100% remove themselves from this market until they can close the fraud hole. There wont be a recovery, and anyone would be mad to lend in this country via Bondora. So far as I know they don't even have a fraud classification that is visible to lenders. I've no idea how or if they are reporting their fraud levels in conjunction with their enhanced money laundering check and success/failure rates to the FCA. I assume that they are reporting something or the FCA would have noticed. Consider that for quite a while Bondora was paying money into borrower accounts then recording payments as being on time, interest and capital paid, when the money had never even been withdrawn from those accounts. This lasted for at least six months, quite likely much longer, until they finally noticed and corrected records. So to at least some degree their checks presumably worked, since the apparent reason for no withdrawing was failure to prove identity. This for my loans was all for Estonian individuals, or at least Estonian claimed identity. However, I don't think that they are really carrying out adequate "enhanced" identity checks. Or at least I don't think that they were. Maybe they have changed. Though personally I wouldn't trust them to have. I went so far as asking for contact details for their money laundering reporting officer when they announced their last round of apparent relaxing of standards (dropping phone contact with would-be borrowers). They initially declined, I didn't pursue it further. Coupled with assorted issues with possible investment miss-selling or them not acting as they have said they would act in relation to loans I no longer trust the firm. Not badly enough to withdraw all money but enough for me not to trust their underwriting quality and reliability and lend via them again. Also sufficiently not good that I now explicitly recommend against using them. I think that they saw a flood of lender money and relaxed underwriting standards, either formally or without full management chain approval, to drive volume. But that's just my personal opinion and there's always the chance that I'm wrong. As a result of these things, of all the FCA-regulated P2x vendors, it's Bondora that I think is most likely to blow up in the faces of lenders, though Zopa, had it not grown a lot, might have been another. Zopa because they managed to get none of my annual statements on a loan right and the consequences of that are still somewhat up in the air, being helped along, I hope, by the court decision for Northern Rock that they were liable to repay interest for their non-CCA loans because they issued statements anyway. I assume that now Zopa will be able to afford the cost of this, if it materialises that they have interest repayment liability for say 30% of loans made during the relevant years.
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james
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Post by james on Feb 24, 2015 23:16:22 GMT
Ah well...thanks for answering but you got me even more worried. ... Now what can we do ? Learn and then deal with it using the tools available to you. For example, you might be able to sell some loans for less than the average loss you expect from them. Or not. If so, you might be able to stomach doing that. Or not. As well as or instead of that you could also look for cases where Bondora said that they were doing one thing and actually did something else, then seek redress for investment mis-selling based on their failure to act as described. One of the things that the FCA expects firms to do also act as they say are acting, so if a firm say says that it is varying interest rates based on risk, it's expected to do that, not, as Bondora may have done, lend to even all but the very riskiest at the lowest rate in the risk-based range they said they would use say the period from April 2014 to the end of that year. This particular issue would be quite hard to prove without a formal investigation by the FCA even though as lenders we can see the lending at that lowest rate and what Bondora now says about borrower quality on those loans. Proving that they knew they were riskier than lowest possible risk at the time of lending is the challenge for this. The young professional issue is relatively easy by comparison. Under 25? Not in a professional occupation, not having even secondary education completed? No way that's a young professional.
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 24, 2015 23:21:13 GMT
james: sorry to be a pain, but "...investment misselling...": I may be misinterpreting the intent of the statement, but on the face of it that is a 'strong' statement to be making if it is intended to be directed at Bondora themselves. Could you please clarify what was meant and consider whether the post may need editing in order to relay facts rather than what might be construed as accusations ?
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