stevio
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,065
Likes: 894
|
Post by stevio on Mar 9, 2018 20:04:51 GMT
There seems to be a fair number of intelligent investors on here that have turned that skill to P2P, so it seems safe to assume you might have already used that in equities
How do you invest in equities and what strategies do you use?
|
|
hazellend
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,363
Likes: 2,180
|
Post by hazellend on Mar 9, 2018 21:08:08 GMT
There seems to be a fair number of intelligent investors on here that have turned that skill to P2P, so it seems safe to assume you might have already used that in equities How do you invest in equities and what strategies do you use? This will sound strange, but intelligence is a detriment in stock investing. Sure, a few very skilled players may massively outperform the market in equities, but generally, buy and hold a diversified, low cost tracker for a few decades will beat almost all intelligent fund managers by a long shot. In equities, I am always fighting my instinct to try and time the market. To sum it up, I hold one ETF in ISAs, SIPPs and taxable accounts: VWRL (Vanguard all world). When I top up my ISA, the money gets invested straight away regardless of what the market is doing. When the market is doing badly, I tend to not look at my accounts.
|
|
stevio
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,065
Likes: 894
|
Post by stevio on Mar 9, 2018 22:25:39 GMT
There seems to be a fair number of intelligent investors on here that have turned that skill to P2P, so it seems safe to assume you might have already used that in equities How do you invest in equities and what strategies do you use? This will sound strange, but intelligence is a detriment in stock investing. Sure, a few very skilled players may massively outperform the market in equities, but generally, buy and hold a diversified, low cost tracker for a few decades will beat almost all intelligent fund managers by a long shot. In equities, I am always fighting my instinct to try and time the market. To sum it up, I hold one ETF in ISAs, SIPPs and taxable accounts: VWRL (Vanguard all world). When I top up my ISA, the money gets invested straight away regardless of what the market is doing. When the market is doing badly, I tend to not look at my accounts. Sound advice, particularly avoiding looking when market down turn How about Fundsmith? I know not a tracker, but seems to be mentioned a lot Any tips on CGT, seen bed and breakfasting via ISA or spouse to avoid 30d rule. Is it worth selling and buying to realise gains and use CGT allowances?
|
|
hazellend
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,363
Likes: 2,180
|
Post by hazellend on Mar 9, 2018 22:38:32 GMT
11.5k per year per spouse CGT allowance.
Hargreaves Lansdown do transfers of equity holdings between linked spousal accounts for around 10 pounds so it is pretty easy
I’m not interested in fundsmith, past performance does not mean future performance.
I have an investing personal statement which keeps me to a passive global tracker
|
|
gustapher
Member of DD Central
Posts: 144
Likes: 267
|
Post by gustapher on Mar 9, 2018 22:42:34 GMT
I go down the self-select ISA/SIPP route. I prefer not to use funds because of the fees but I agree it is very difficult to time the market. While I actively manage my accounts I try to resist the urge to look at it frequently and over trade. Typically I buy and hold with a 1-5 year time horizon and so trading is infrequent. This gets around the problem of trying to compete with pro investors/algos. Buy to invest and not trade. Passive funds have worked well over the last 10 years but that may not hold true going forward. I view active management/investment skills as the same as any other area of personal development - something to work on and improve slowly over time.
I'm no expert but my tips would be:
1) Position size. Maintain discipline regarding the amount of a single stock/fund you own and the total amount invested in stocks relative to other asset classes. If the market crashes other investment classes often compensate which helps me to sleep easy.
2) Treat "cash" as a valuable asset class/investment position in its own right. Always have 10-20% cash as "dry powder". While it gets eroded by inflation stock markets will generally correct at least 10% once a year and every 7-10 years potentially more i.e. 20-40%. As these sell-offs happen invest the cash. When the market recovers or is doing well ensure you build the cash position back up. This reduces the skill required in stock picking as everything you buy will generally be better value.
3) This is the hardest part - a contrarian mindset. Buy when there is fear and sell when there is complacency. Easier said than done but the 20% cash position tip really helps with this. Generally there will always be a reversion to the mean so invest with that in mind. A good example would be Brexit. I invested my entire cash position in the days after the referendum because despite all the Chicken Little's running around in the media I knew that the world would keep turning and Britain would almost certainly be ok long term. Nearly all those purchases are up between 20% and 50%. As the market has risen I trimmed those positions and saved more cash to get myself back to 20%. I have made a few further investments during the recent 10% drop but still have plenty of cash left if it drops even further.
I think all these points are relevant to P2P. For example:
Tip 1 - In P2P you want to have similar discipline in terms of individual loan size and overall P2P investment levels vs other asset classes. This is the easiest way to sleep easy at night. Tip 2 - Forget "cash drag" and see it as a valid investment position. Keep dry powder for when everyone freaks out and good loan opportunities present themselves. Tip 3 - Be contrarian and try to be objective. For example I think the negativity towards Lendy is overdone and there are opportunities there. I think people who invest in MT simply because of "good communications" and because they "like them" are now paying for this mistake. Use the overly emotional people as barometers of investor sentiment and try to do the opposite without contravening tip 1.
|
|
macq
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,934
Likes: 1,199
|
Post by macq on Mar 9, 2018 23:04:04 GMT
if the MSE forum over the last few years is anything to go by the active V passive argument could last longer then the time i have left to invest.I don't have a strong view either way as i use all types of funds.I see no reason to get rid of the IT's i have held for 20 - 25 years and replace them with trackers that may or may not beat them in the future(and have not in the past).I also used an IT for a few years in a bio fund but swapped out to an environmental IT and a niche ETF and that's where the fun is if you want to spend the time researching(but no guarantee of being right) its the same as saving time in P2P with the likes of LW or doing DD on Abl or Ldy etc But i am happy to have a couple of trackers being used on a monthly basis in a pension and hopefully taking advantage of pound cost averaging and it means no decision making.Personally i prefer to invest globally at the moment but would still add some form of multi asset either with individual bond/property funds etc or one of the multi asset funds but it can come down to age & risk on that point as the longer the target date the more risk you could take i.e all shares or more risky markets I would also recommend once you have made your choice to stick with it and not keep checking against other funds as you will just end up going round in circles
|
|
macq
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,934
Likes: 1,199
|
Post by macq on Mar 10, 2018 11:47:45 GMT
As an alternative to the active/passive fees debate it could be worth a look at Orbis investments who over the last few years have made more of a push in the UK to private investors but based more in Australia/Far East and in institutional investing i believe (but the UK part is based here & under FCA ) They have a system based on a capped fee if they beat the benchmark and a rebate if they miss so an incentive for them hopefully and the funds seem well rated on Morningstar & Trustnet etc
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2018 18:08:10 GMT
Just leaving a holding card, on phone skiing, I hold alternative views to those already offered. Give a couple of days and I'll offer some more.
1. UK only 2 fund managers are consistent with comp low volatility. Fund Smith and lindsell train 2. Do always take your capital gain freebie 3. Buy shares when you know they are about to go up, then slot in trailing stop 4. Buy bonds when they cheap, sub ticket, and paying a rate > likely inflation rates 5. Invest slowly and write down why you bought,. Then check why you were right or wrong 6. Watch sectors, when big player drops everyone drops, then find the odd balls in the sector, are they different? Then let them all fall but buy before their next announcement
|
|
macq
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,934
Likes: 1,199
|
Post by macq on Mar 11, 2018 20:25:05 GMT
regarding point 3 - on the QT could you let me know when shares are going up
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2018 21:28:45 GMT
Smaller shares go up when they make announcements that things are going well. Generally small shares go well when the sector is going well. Simplz
|
|
hazellend
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,363
Likes: 2,180
|
Post by hazellend on Mar 11, 2018 21:44:29 GMT
Smaller shares go up when they make announcements that things are going well. Generally small shares go well when the sector is going well. Simplz Nope, it is not simple. If it was then you would easily be a multimillionaire by now from the strategy. Every small cap fund would be shooting the lights out, have you seen woodfords patient capital trust recently? I don't think this is good advice for the majority of investors. I learned the hard way trying to make money on junior oil, gold and biotech stocks. They are like rocket fuel, might shoot to the moon but highly likely to explode in your face. Fortunately, I was at the early stage of my investment life so no serious permanent damage done to my net worth
|
|
edward
Member of DD Central
Posts: 66
Likes: 24
|
Post by edward on Mar 11, 2018 22:28:53 GMT
I went through the same learning curve at an early age of my investment life. Hopefully older and wiser now...well, definitely much older but still probably taking on too much risk...
|
|
bigfoot12
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,817
Likes: 816
|
Post by bigfoot12 on Mar 12, 2018 9:50:51 GMT
stevio , this is what I do. I don't have the data to see if I would have been better buying and holding VWRL, and even if I have done better there is a good chance that is purely because of luck and, or because of information and ideas I had in the past that I can't necessarily repeat in the future. I have highlighted in bold the five main differences from a a pure tracker strategy, such as hazellend , in order of what I expect is increasing deviation from that strategy. My 'equity' investments include bond, property and commodity ETFs. I use several (mainly low cost physical replicating ETF) funds to create my portfolio as I don't believe there is a single index I want to track. In particular I expect to live in the UK for the rest of my life and most of my liabilities will correlate more closely with the UK economy than the world as a whole. I hold more FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 than a global index would hold (6% in the case of VWRL). I am increasingly worried about some of these indices as there are clearly fashions for taking more of some sectors public or private and for companies listing in other countries , but I haven't worked out what to do about this yet. Because I hold several investments I re-balance after big moves. Read up the work of Claude Shannon for more information. This brings my portfolio back to my original target. When the market does badly the opportunities are often greater. I have money outside tax wrappers, so I re-balance to lock in capital losses and make use of my annual CGT allowance. If the ISA limit stays as high as it is now this will become less of a problem. I switch from one investment to a heavily correlated one so I don't have to worry about 30 day rule, sometimes I buy the same investment inside a pension or ISA. I can often do this with the above. I also own some VCTs which I have bought both in primary issuance and on the secondary market. These have tax free dividends, which is nice, but the rules have become much more strict recently and so I haven't bought any of these in the last two years. I have a small experiment based on value investing which I need to invest more time, but haven't recently. Every now and then I sell some of the most expensive thing in my portfolio and buy two or three of the cheapest markets, using CAPE (that have an ETF which I can easily buy). For more on this read about Benjamin Graham or Robert Schiller. I am not rigorous enough with this, and I am currently rethinking it a little, because it is hard to get the data I need; when the oil price fell the markets on many oil producing nations looked cheap, but I'm not sure that they necessarily were. This is not a strategy for nervous investors. And this is when the pure trackers will start to scream; my target holdings change over time, to hold more when they are cheap and less when expensive. When the markets seemed cheap eight or so years ago I was geared longer than 100% (not very much); now I'm not. For most of the last 20 years I have owned some conventional gilts, but a few years ago I started selling these and holding cash instead. And more relevant to this forum I used to hold a large amount in P2P, but that has fallen considerably, and this remaining is (hopefully) lower risk, so I have increased some of my other investments.
|
|
r00lish67
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,692
Likes: 4,048
|
Post by r00lish67 on Mar 12, 2018 10:18:37 GMT
I have a small experiment based on value investing which I need to invest more time, but haven't recently. Every now and then I sell some of the most expensive thing in my portfolio and buy two or three of the cheapest markets, using CAPE (that have an ETF which I can easily buy). For more on this read about Benjamin Graham or Robert Schiller. have increased some of my other investments. For those who want to have a good view of CAPE valuations, I've found this chart really useful (updated every 3 months): www.starcapital.de/en/research/stock-market-expectations/
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2018 16:12:33 GMT
Smaller shares go up when they make announcements that things are going well. Generally small shares go well when the sector is going well. Simplz Nope, it is not simple. If it was then you would easily be a multimillionaire by now from the strategy. Every small cap fund would be shooting the lights out, have you seen woodfords patient capital trust recently? I don't think this is good advice for the majority of investors. I learned the hard way trying to make money on junior oil, gold and biotech stocks. They are like rocket fuel, might shoot to the moon but highly likely to explode in your face. Fortunately, I was at the early stage of my investment life so no serious permanent damage done to my net worth I guess I was trying to satisfy macq's question about advising on when to buy (it links to my earlier advice and that which I was offering to provide now I'm back from the family chalet in Switzerland) :-). I suspect it also depends a bit on a few other factors but if you don't understand them then you shouldn't be investing in P2P either. So spread is important and a bit of basic due diligence "do I understand what the company does" and even "is the company taking on too many loans?" Multi-millionaire, well it would depend on how much you put in every investment you made, how quickly it turned-over and how often you invested to be able to make that calculation, but yes it works mighty fine for me and I would not be so successful if I was index tracking. But maybe the OP would... Probably the most important thing any would-be S&S investor needs to do is to understand what drives him/herself. I don't like being in a losing situation and so choose lower volatilty items, I like to buy when they are going to go up and I struggle with knowing when to sell them (that is my major weakness) but I seldom sell at a loss. Others differ and I wish them all well. My own view is index trackers are very brave people and I lack the courage to follow them. What is useful is to set up careful experiments of your strategy hypotheses and run them against each other over say a 9 month period. Discard the failures and repeat. I suggest that rushing to invest money is a mistake, build a series of tools and invest sensibly. When I review my live strategies nearly every one repeatadly beats P2P, I really only do P2P to ensure I get to use up my income tax allowances. If you want a place to start reading, I suggest naked-trader's book is a good start, but don't try and emulate him, just use his book to expand your understanding of the market.
|
|