bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Apr 20, 2018 10:34:40 GMT
r00lish67, you could decide to invest a portion of your excess cash each month, and then increase this if the market (which market?) falls. For example you could invest your normal monthly amount plus, say, 5% of your excess cash each month. This would give you a 20 month horizon to be full invested. If the markets crash in a few months you could increase that to 15% - 20%. Obviously if you want a longer time horizon you would invest a smaller fraction. (I am doing something similar, having reduced my US equities and UK P2P exposure.)
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james100
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Post by james100 on Apr 20, 2018 12:02:08 GMT
r00lish67Have you had a look at the portfoliocharts website? Hours of panic fun to be had there, and an interesting way to compare basic portfolio structures on the metrics that may matter most to you e.g. CAGR vs StDev vs Start Date Sensitivity (which is what I'm picking up from your question) using data from over the past 50 years or so. Taking examples from each end of the volatility spectrum, portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/total-stock-market-uk/ versus portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/permanent-portfolio-uk/ with more UK examples on the site (not sure if it's ok to include links so mods please remove if necessary). Of course there are a million different ways to construct an investment portfolio but IMHO this info offers a good starting point on the relative pros/cons for rough asset allocations depending on your risk/reward/time profile.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Apr 20, 2018 16:42:08 GMT
Thanks james100 and bigfoot12 , some interesting food for thought there. You're right, a regular investment plan might ease the psychological pain of entering such a high market. I hadn't seen portfolio charts before, looks like another good site to endlessly play around with, much as I've done previously with FIREcalc (Financial Independence Retire Early simulator). |
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Dec 6, 2018 19:56:50 GMT
I have a strategy for you. Follow me and do the opposite.
I purchased some shares on Wednesday. Today the market has the biggest fall since brexit vote day
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stevio
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Post by stevio on Dec 6, 2018 20:48:40 GMT
On another tack, can anyone help me overcome a mental block I have going on here? I'm in my mid-thirties, a believer in passive low-cost investing, and currently have about 50% of my net wealth in equities (mostly in my pension). I'll definitely be leaving my pension fully exposed to equities, but meanwhile, my P2P exposure has been dwindling as I deem the risk/return on less and less opportunities to be worth it. This is causing me to grow my cash savings, which are obviously returning very little. Under the passive investing doctrine, with time still (relatively) on my side statistically I should apparently just throw more of my spare cash that I can invest long-term into equities and trust to the market. But, although I'm under no illusions as to my total lack of market edge, the temptation to just sit on the sidelines and wait for the market to finally tank is currently overwhelming, even if takes another 5-10 years. Does anyone having any material to either shake me out of sitting on the sidelines or convince me that I'm sufficiently exposed and relax with gently depreciating cash for a while? As you have maybe a 25yr window before you would be looking to sell, the share price will only really matter when you sell rather than buy. Over that period its highly likely an index tracker would have increased substantially, so much so that it would be vertialy immaterial as to what point in the cycle you bought into Regular investment will also allow pound cost averaging, smoothing out the highs and lows Compare the rate you are receiving on cash (depending on the amounts, I suspect its being highly eroded by inflation) to that of equities and equities return substantially more over a long period So actually you are making a "decision" to not "do anything" and stay in cash, this can be a worse decision than making an informed plan You mention your P2P is dwindling as you deem the risk/return..worth it. Maybe you should do the same risk return analysis for equities, likely equities are at least similar risk return to P2P, if not better
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stevio
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Post by stevio on Dec 6, 2018 20:54:52 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 6, 2018 21:38:15 GMT
I have a strategy for you. Follow me and do the opposite.
I purchased some shares on Wednesday. Today the market has the biggest fall since brexit vote day
I've taken the opportunity to increase my equity holdings today especially in the UK. I'm not making any grand predictions that this is the market bottom or what the short term future holds but as I'm planning to hold for 25yrs plus any decent drop is a time to top up my regular investments!
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Dec 7, 2018 12:45:05 GMT
I have a strategy for you. Follow me and do the opposite.
I purchased some shares on Wednesday. Today the market has the biggest fall since brexit vote day
. You did place your chips at the Brexit Casino! Yes I know, it was a rebalancing thing
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 7, 2018 15:11:47 GMT
Do you think Newsnight will lead again on equities tonight, and explain why global equities are almost back where they were 48 hours ago?  Honestly, it's ridiculous. Stock markets fall 3% and they cart on a load of doomsters to talk about inverted yield curves, trade tariffs, trump etc as if they fully understand why this is happening and why it's happening now. I tuned out halfway through the piece, as someone on twitter pointed out that early trading was suggesting that equities are back up 2% in any case. |
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Post by beepbeepimajeep on Dec 11, 2018 17:42:44 GMT
Honestly, it's ridiculous. It is, for the full experience though you have to try owning bitcoin and reading internet posts about it.
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Post by brettb on Jan 16, 2019 0:00:39 GMT
With my SIPP I was always on the sidelines waiting for a crash (that never came). Then after the BREXIT vote I went all in. My SIPP's growth curve has risen significantly since I did that.
Now I just invest all of my spare cash in funds.
I love getting dividends so I look for funds that have good yields. I like the covered call ones (the Schroeders Income Maximiser is the best known). Also I like funds that pay out monthly dividends.
The covered call funds have been good for me but I could get my fingers burnt in a huge crash I guess.
I was in P2P's but have been winding them down. One by one they've all gone bad. The latest is Assetz messing round with a disastrous 2FA implementation.
Right now I'm investing mostly in the UK (it's where the best dividends are). I looked at a list of FTSE dividends and was amazed - there are some great bargains out there right now. But there are also good opportunities in India and ASEAN countries. China is cooked as it's getting very foreigner unfriendly and that's foolish for a country totally reliant on exports. Also the average Chinese consumer has no money. Again, it's good news for ASEAN nations.
My equity growth has been pretty unspectacular though. I'm mostly in high yielding unloved stocks. I just focus on my monthly dividend chart - my dividends are growing around 10% YOY (excluding additional funds invested).
At some point there will be a recession and then I might rotate into growth stocks.
The recession is coming. I worked in IT and this January there have been hardly any job emails sent to me. Brexit/global growth concerns must be scaring folk into hoarding cash.
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stevio
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Post by stevio on Jan 16, 2019 10:27:15 GMT
With my SIPP I was always on the sidelines waiting for a crash (that never came). Then after the BREXIT vote I went all in. My SIPP's growth curve has risen significantly since I did that.
Now I just invest all of my spare cash in funds.
I love getting dividends so I look for funds that have good yields. I like the covered call ones (the Schroeders Income Maximiser is the best known). Also I like funds that pay out monthly dividends.
The covered call funds have been good for me but I could get my fingers burnt in a huge crash I guess.
I was in P2P's but have been winding them down. One by one they've all gone bad. The latest is Assetz messing round with a disastrous 2FA implementation.
Right now I'm investing mostly in the UK (it's where the best dividends are). I looked at a list of FTSE dividends and was amazed - there are some great bargains out there right now. But there are also good opportunities in India and ASEAN countries. China is cooked as it's getting very foreigner unfriendly and that's foolish for a country totally reliant on exports. Also the average Chinese consumer has no money. Again, it's good news for ASEAN nations.
My equity growth has been pretty unspectacular though. I'm mostly in high yielding unloved stocks. I just focus on my monthly dividend chart - my dividends are growing around 10% YOY (excluding additional funds invested).
At some point there will be a recession and then I might rotate into growth stocks.
The recession is coming. I worked in IT and this January there have been hardly any job emails sent to me. Brexit/global growth concerns must be scaring folk into hoarding cash.
What high dividend stocks have you bought?
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macq
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Post by macq on Jan 16, 2019 12:24:44 GMT
Did mention in another thread that if you have an Amazon account you can download the Investment trust handbook 2019 for free (maybe available elsewhere).While it tends to positive on all things about trusts at 350 pages it does tend to be a good read on investing in general in places as its written by many authors and also when looking at income does look at alternative assets such as p2p IT's etc without the usual negative outlook that some newspapers etc have(but guess there is a reason for that)
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2019 13:44:53 GMT
I have a strategy for you. Follow me and do the opposite.
I purchased some shares on Wednesday. Today the market has the biggest fall since brexit vote day
I've taken the opportunity to increase my equity holdings today especially in the UK. I'm not making any grand predictions that this is the market bottom or what the short term future holds but as I'm planning to hold for 25yrs plus any decent drop is a time to top up my regular investments!I I did the opposite and moved out of the UK once Brexit started and moved into global stocks mainly and good low volatitility funds. In December I took remaining shares in the UK and moved them into closed funds with strong infrastructure bases and released sufficent capital as cash for the next 4 years to just sit in a BS.
So if it all tanks I can just ignore it. Waiting for a stock market drop is a long game (and you only get one life). I suggest you read Terry Smith's latest, my view is you have to be in it to win it.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2019 22:04:17 GMT
Well you have me at an advantage there @bobo as I don't have the knowledge or time/inclination to have any confidence in fund and equity investment decisions based on market conditions.
So playing to my level of understanding I continue to make regular investments into global low cost trackers and top up from my cash pot as and when any markets take a significant dip. Hopefully it plays out ok in the end or in approximately 20-25yrs+ ....
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