oxdoc
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Post by oxdoc on Apr 1, 2018 9:16:25 GMT
Hello, I was wondering what people think about taking a generally passive approach to investing on FS, meaning following a simple strategy like investing a small amount of money in each new contract put up on the platform, checking every few months, relying on FS's loan selection work to achieve a decent return. Since, as I understand it, the best loans are quickly fully subscribed so that someone who is not checking frequently is excluded from those, such a strategy would be expected to return less than the platform average, but do you think the expected return would still be reasonable (more than 6%, say, to be competitive with the stock market)? For what it's worth, I have taken this approach with a small amount of money I invested a little under a year ago, and now repayments of 2 out of 11 loans I'm invested in are late, potentially more than wiping out the interest I have made. This makes me quite uncertain about whether to continue using FS, particularly since economic conditions are fairly benign at the moment and things could get worse in a downturn. I wonder how much to trust their published statistics - they are reporting capital losses as being about 10% of defaulted loans, so about 0.5% overall, but about 10% of loans are overdue, and of course some of the losses on these could be "hidden" if they just aren't being defaulted even if there is not much chance of getting a payment. Do you think their published capital loss statistics fairly reflect what investors will get back from loans on average? Also, is the secondary market best avoided if you don't have time to look into the details of the loans?
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rookey123
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Post by rookey123 on Apr 1, 2018 9:42:28 GMT
I agree, one to avoid for the passive investor. I actually like FS but you need to spend the time on DD. Saying that 1 out of every 15-20 loans is a cracking investment at a rate you won't see anywhere else. I also only invest on the basis that the 6mth maturity schedule is nonsense. As long as I am happy with the asset and it's a low enough LTV I factor in holding it for 1-2 years as my benchmark. Compared to other platforms I am on I proactively put much more money in specific investments. On platforms like AC with much better credit assessment and lower rates I am happier to passively invest.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Apr 1, 2018 9:56:47 GMT
On the contrary, I believe you need to be very active on FS. Otherwise you will invest in a lot of bad loans. I avoid about 90% of loans.
Passive could work just on bling loans.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Apr 1, 2018 10:26:44 GMT
I just don't believe the FS claim above - it may be true over a few early defaults but there are some mega "horlicks" in the pipeline which are going to show defaults closer to 90% than 10%. e.g. Wimbledon may well result in a 100% loss
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bg
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Post by bg on Apr 1, 2018 10:50:00 GMT
I just don't believe the FS claim above - it may be true over a few early defaults but there are some mega "horlicks" in the pipeline which are going to show defaults closer to 90% than 10%. e.g. Wimbledon may well result in a 100% loss I don't think that's quite what they are claiming. They are saying 9.3% of defaults has now been written off, 23.4% have been recovered and the remaining 67.3% is still pending....ie the asset has not yet been realised. Agree however that capital losses number will go up (as pending reduces) but I don't think the numbers are misleading. At least they clearly display the value of loans that are overdue unlike the likes of FC who keep the numbers hidden in the depths of the loan book.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Apr 1, 2018 11:38:54 GMT
I just don't believe the FS claim above - it may be true over a few early defaults but there are some mega "horlicks" in the pipeline which are going to show defaults closer to 90% than 10%. e.g. Wimbledon may well result in a 100% loss From FS website: capital lost through defaults £744,600 0.49% Clearly that rate will soar.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Apr 1, 2018 13:20:36 GMT
very true and explains why I told FC I was seeking the Holy Land elsewhere...
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Post by beepbeepimajeep on Apr 1, 2018 23:33:53 GMT
If you want to outperform on FS then fight to get your £25 allowed in on the scraps available on the good bling loans. If you guarantee to win the fastest clicker first (usually about 6 seconds is all you have) then you will be all right. You could get £1000 invested by 2022 this way.
Go for a passive style with the other loans and enjoy being straight up lied to (Whitehaven) or get used to FS doing absolutely nothing to get your money back from borrowers, letting them lead you whatever merry dance they like (Powerboat). At a minimum your portfolio will more than likely be years overdue showing a lot of potentially catastrophic defaults.
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oxdoc
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Post by oxdoc on Apr 2, 2018 10:11:35 GMT
OK, thanks for the replies, it seems quite unequivocal that passive investing in FS is a bad idea!
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