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Post by masquedefer on Aug 19, 2014 12:18:15 GMT
When I saw 2% cash bank advertised on the asset-backed property loans paying 8% return, my dumb brain said to itself well for a one year loan, the return is 10%. However in reality you are really only getting £8 return for every £98 invested (£100 less the £2 (2%) cash back) which is only 8.16%. Or am I missing something here?
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chrisf
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Post by chrisf on Aug 19, 2014 12:32:11 GMT
Aren't you lending £98 and getting £108 back?
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markr
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Post by markr on Aug 19, 2014 12:37:30 GMT
We've discussed this before but I can't find it. You haven't invested £98, you've invested £100, at the end of the term you will receive £100 of capital back in your account, not £98. So you invest £100, you get £2 cash back, at the end of the term you receive your £100 back and £8 of interest. For £100 investment, after one year you'll have £110 before fees, which looks like 10% to me.
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is
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Post by is on Aug 19, 2014 12:37:45 GMT
With the property loans, you effectively get a 2% coupon at inception, and after the 1% fee, 7%/12 every month, all on your unchanged loan notional of £100. Without tax considerations, this is about 9% yield.
However because the cashback is not taxable, it is higher, depending on your tax bracket. for 45% taxpayer the equivalent yield is around 10.64%.
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Post by cowboy on Aug 19, 2014 12:47:06 GMT
Technically we should also consider the fact that the 2% is returned to you up front, if this was also reinvested at 7% (8% minus the 1% fee) then that would add an additional 0.14% onto the total rate (.16% for the new A rated loans). The ultimate answer of course depends on your typical investment rate, risk, luck etc.
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blender
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Post by blender on Aug 19, 2014 13:02:41 GMT
With the property loans, you effectively get a 2% coupon at inception, and after the 1% fee, 7%/12 every month, all on your unchanged loan notional of £100. Without tax considerations, this is about 9% yield. However because the cashback is not taxable, it is higher, depending on your tax bracket. for 45% taxpayer the equivalent yield is around 10.64%. 'Is' is correct. You are lending £100 and getting £109 back, it is just that the first £2 comes back very quickly, without fees taken and without a tax liability. For the 20% tax payer who wishes to keep out of higher rates, these property loans are very useful, especially if you can churn them before they are due to repay - taking zero risk and suffering no taxable losses. If the 2% cashback contributed almost nothing to lender returns, they why would FC do it as an incentive? Especially since they are giving away 40% of their fee from the borrower - that certainly affects FC's margin and the benefit has to go somewhere. It goes to the lender.
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Post by masquedefer on Aug 19, 2014 13:18:51 GMT
Thanks for all your thoughts - Putting aside FC fees, individual taxation and the need to immediately reinvest capital repayments to achieve true compound rates, I just can't get my head around the simple fact that if I give £100 and get £2 back (straight away) then I have only invested £98 upfront. If I then receive £8 interest on that investment (over one year) then my return is £8 (interest) divided by £98 (original capital) which equals 8.16326%. What am I missing if others believe they are receiving a 9% or even a 10% return.
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min
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Post by min on Aug 19, 2014 13:23:22 GMT
Thanks for all your thoughts - Putting aside FC fees, individual taxation and the need to immediately reinvest capital repayments to achieve true compound rates, I just can't get my head around the simple fact that if I give £100 and get £2 back (straight away) then I have only invested £98 upfront. If I then receive £8 interest on that investment (over one year) then my return is £8 (interest) divided by £98 (original capital) which equals 8.16326%. What am I missing if others believe they are receiving a 9% or even a 10% return. At the end of the year you get back the amount you loaned. You think you loaned £98 but they give you back £100. It's that £2 you've forgotten.
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is
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Post by is on Aug 19, 2014 13:25:44 GMT
Thanks for all your thoughts - Putting aside FC fees, individual taxation and the need to immediately reinvest capital repayments to achieve true compound rates, I just can't get my head around the simple fact that if I give £100 and get £2 back (straight away) then I have only invested £98 upfront. If I then receive £8 interest on that investment (over one year) then my return is £8 (interest) divided by £98 (original capital) which equals 8.16326%. What am I missing if others believe they are receiving a 9% or even a 10% return. Your return is £2 cahback + £8 interest for £100 capital, repaid at maturity As I said above cahback is just an extra coupon... so without taking into account discounting, 10% in your example.
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Post by masquedefer on Aug 19, 2014 13:32:56 GMT
AAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Min (and others) thank you for your patience. I invest £98 upfront, but at year end I get back £108 (£100 capital + £8 interest), which means I make £10, thus my return is £10/£98 = 10.204%
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blender
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Post by blender on Aug 19, 2014 13:57:15 GMT
Great that is sorted, but the problem stems from thinking that you invest £98. You don't, you lend £100 to the borrower and FC gives you £2. Eventually the borrower gives you back what you have lent. The concept of the 'net investment' leads you into the problem of expecting a 'net repayment'.
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maxmarengo
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Post by maxmarengo on Aug 23, 2014 7:07:11 GMT
Finally got round to doing the calculations on these. Taking in to account: - Flows out (purchase cost) - Fees - 1% of the principal - Bonus - 2% paid on go live - Interest (using the normal FC method of 1/12 of the headline rate charged on the outstanding principal per month) - Lag - I have assumed 14 days from the date you invest to the loan going live - Repayment - assumed to be exactly 12 months after the live date.
For the 12 months at 8% the EAR is 9.1%. For the 18 months at 9% the EAR is 9.6%.
The lag is more significant that I expected. If you invest in on the day the load goes live, the return rises from 9.1% to 9.5%. Obvious when you think about it, but worth taking account of now these loans are taking more than a week to fill.
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Aug 23, 2014 7:57:22 GMT
Finally got round to doing the calculations on these. Taking in to account: - Flows out (purchase cost) - Fees - 1% of the principal - Bonus - 2% paid on go live - Interest (using the normal FC method of 1/12 of the headline rate charged on the outstanding principal per month) - Lag - I have assumed 14 days from the date you invest to the loan going live - Repayment - assumed to be exactly 12 months after the live date. For the 12 months at 8% the EAR is 9.1%. For the 18 months at 9% the EAR is 9.6%. The lag is more significant that I expected. If you invest in on the day the load goes live, the return rises from 9.1% to 9.5%. Obvious when you think about it, but worth taking account of now these loans are taking more than a week to fill. That's interesting, thank you. Do you take into account that the bonus cash can be immediately re-invested to compound returns (and if so, do you assume the same rate?) Also, I understand that the tax situation is different for the bonus, so does that make these cashback loans more attractive than might initially appear from your EAR%? I wonder what the equivalent uplift % would be for a standard rate taxpayer.
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Post by chielamangus on Aug 23, 2014 9:30:56 GMT
Finally got round to doing the calculations on these. Taking in to account: - Flows out (purchase cost) - Fees - 1% of the principal - Bonus - 2% paid on go live - Interest (using the normal FC method of 1/12 of the headline rate charged on the outstanding principal per month) - Lag - I have assumed 14 days from the date you invest to the loan going live - Repayment - assumed to be exactly 12 months after the live date. For the 12 months at 8% the EAR is 9.1%. For the 18 months at 9% the EAR is 9.6%. The lag is more significant that I expected. If you invest in on the day the load goes live, the return rises from 9.1% to 9.5%. Obvious when you think about it, but worth taking account of now these loans are taking more than a week to fill. I've got a little table showing IRR returns before tax for 12 and 18mth loans, at various interest rates, at two levels of drawdown time (4 and 14 days) from the time of investment. I use this to decide in the first place if its worth looking further at a loan. I agree with your results (well, 9.55 for the 18 mth example) but the number of decimal places one works to has a small effect on the results. And what happens to all those millions of minute amounts that get chopped off if FC work to 2 decimal places? If the interest payment should be £0.541667 per month on a £100 loan, what happens to the £(12 x .001667) multiplied by 4600 loan parts, or about £92 per loan? As most of us pay tax, it would be useful to look at the post-tax returns, as per fasty (have no idea how to make this a link with a different colour!). I'll do that sometime for a standard rate taxpayer for the 16 results I have. At the moment, 12 mth loans at 8 per cent with 2 per cent cash back are the threshold below which I will definitely not go. For 18mth loans the minimum interest rate is 9 per cent.
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wysiati
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Post by wysiati on Aug 23, 2014 10:39:21 GMT
Finally got round to doing the calculations on these. Taking in to account: - Flows out (purchase cost) - Fees - 1% of the principal - Bonus - 2% paid on go live - Interest (using the normal FC method of 1/12 of the headline rate charged on the outstanding principal per month) - Lag - I have assumed 14 days from the date you invest to the loan going live - Repayment - assumed to be exactly 12 months after the live date. For the 12 months at 8% the EAR is 9.1%. For the 18 months at 9% the EAR is 9.6%. The lag is more significant that I expected. If you invest in on the day the load goes live, the return rises from 9.1% to 9.5%. Obvious when you think about it, but worth taking account of now these loans are taking more than a week to fill. And what happens to all those millions of minute amounts that get chopped off if FC work to 2 decimal places? If the interest payment should be £0.541667 per month on a £100 loan, what happens to the £(12 x .001667) multiplied by 4600 loan parts, or about £92 per loan? FC has stated previously, IIRC, that it accumulates on your account in the background until it reaches the 1p threshold and gets recognised in the account value etc.
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