Mike
Member of DD Central
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Post by Mike on Sept 1, 2014 2:02:39 GMT
I have not invested in any of the wind turbine loans, but I think my reasoning might be a bit poor. Perhaps someone who has more experience can give me some better understanding of these types of loans.
My main reasons for avoiding wind turbines, I confess, are mostly influenced by the 'Keeping the lights on' Private Eye column. The fact that wind is unreliable causes problems - for example in Germany the energy producers have had to pay the grid to take electricity off them in windy/stormy times recently. This is rare, but must say something about the scalability or 'sustainability' of wind power as a whole - and Germany has some of the highest priced electricity in Europe, while it is also keen on green. Should a similar situation (negative wholesale electricity prices) happen more frequently, how serious would/could it be to the sector?
Coupled with this, but still from Private Eye, Scotland is over exposed to wind power? And there are still considerable subsidies relied upon by wind farms from various sources (inc. UK) which could disappear (or become messy in courts) very quickly (even with 'No' vote)? The SNP behaviour doesn't make me at all confident things will continue smoothly in the case of a 'Yes' vote either.
I'm also curious if the land valuation is (too highly) dependant on the wind turbine potential? In three years if the 'climate changes', and the security is called upon, will the valuation be significantly reduced in the event that the sector has diminished - presumably in a manor that resulted in the loans default?
I've read the Assetz guide and looked at the various docs, but don't see much comment on the energy sector as a whole, and particularly the varying wholesale prices of electricity. Maybe someone else who has experience can convince me that I should be lending on these loans!
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Sept 1, 2014 8:22:52 GMT
I have not invested in any of the wind turbine loans, but I think my reasoning might be a bit poor. Perhaps someone who has more experience can give me some better understanding of these types of loans. My main reasons for avoiding wind turbines, I confess, are mostly influenced by the 'Keeping the lights on' Private Eye column. The fact that wind is unreliable causes problems - for example in Germany the energy producers have had to pay the grid to take electricity off them in windy/stormy times recently. This is rare, but must say something about the scalability or 'sustainability' of wind power as a whole - and Germany has some of the highest priced electricity in Europe, while it is also keen on green. Should a similar situation (negative wholesale electricity prices) happen more frequently, how serious would/could it be to the sector? Coupled with this, but still from Private Eye, Scotland is over exposed to wind power? And there are still considerable subsidies relied upon by wind farms from various sources (inc. UK) which could disappear (or become messy in courts) very quickly (even with 'No' vote)? The SNP behaviour doesn't make me at all confident things will continue smoothly in the case of a 'Yes' vote either. I'm also curious if the land valuation is (too highly) dependant on the wind turbine potential? In three years if the 'climate changes', and the security is called upon, will the valuation be significantly reduced in the event that the sector has diminished - presumably in a manor that resulted in the loans default? I've read the Assetz guide and looked at the various docs, but don't see much comment on the energy sector as a whole, and particularly the varying wholesale prices of electricity. Maybe someone else who has experience can convince me that I should be lending on these loans! It sounds as if you've gone thru' all the relevant issues and have simply come out against them. Which is perfectly reasonable. I feel they're on the whole safe enough for me. Have you read the surveys of any of the AC W.T. deals? The land values are talked about at length in them. The AC guide is just a Starter really. Government FIT is about 18.5p and the price of electricity sold is about 5.5p per unit, so the main income is from the Government trying to encouraging this area not so much from the wholesale market. I'm not experienced.
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merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
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Post by merlin on Sept 1, 2014 9:33:12 GMT
One of my big worries about windmills is their seeming lack of reliability and particularly once they are more than a couple of years old. I can see from my office two wind farms one with 12 turbines and the other 8 larger turbines. It is rare on any given day to see all 20 working, usually only one not working but occasionally two or three. I have not got clued up on the technology involved but they don't seem to be very reliable to me!
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surby
Minor shareholder in Assetz Capital
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Post by surby on Sept 1, 2014 10:34:43 GMT
I've invested in Wales but passed on the ones in Scotland for now. I saw something saying that Treasury believes rUK would not be responsible for subsidies in the event that Scotland separates and don't want the complications!
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Post by planetx on Sept 1, 2014 11:03:01 GMT
I have not invested in any of the wind turbine loans, but I think my reasoning might be a bit poor. Perhaps someone who has more experience can give me some better understanding of these types of loans. My main reasons for avoiding wind turbines, I confess, are mostly influenced by the 'Keeping the lights on' Private Eye column. The fact that wind is unreliable causes problems - for example in Germany the energy producers have had to pay the grid to take electricity off them in windy/stormy times recently. This is rare, but must say something about the scalability or 'sustainability' of wind power as a whole - and Germany has some of the highest priced electricity in Europe, while it is also keen on green. Should a similar situation (negative wholesale electricity prices) happen more frequently, how serious would/could it be to the sector? Coupled with this, but still from Private Eye, Scotland is over exposed to wind power? And there are still considerable subsidies relied upon by wind farms from various sources (inc. UK) which could disappear (or become messy in courts) very quickly (even with 'No' vote)? The SNP behaviour doesn't make me at all confident things will continue smoothly in the case of a 'Yes' vote either. I'm also curious if the land valuation is (too highly) dependant on the wind turbine potential? In three years if the 'climate changes', and the security is called upon, will the valuation be significantly reduced in the event that the sector has diminished - presumably in a manor that resulted in the loans default? I've read the Assetz guide and looked at the various docs, but don't see much comment on the energy sector as a whole, and particularly the varying wholesale prices of electricity. Maybe someone else who has experience can convince me that I should be lending on these loans! As ton says, the wholesale price of electricity shouldn't be a factor as the feed in tariff is guaranteed by the government. If the electricity isn't needed and has to be sold at a lower or negative price that's a cost that will ultimately be paid by the consumer. I think the security is more of an issue; security should have value in the event of the company no longer being a going concern, but the valuations are based on the turbines being ongoing revenue generating assets. In a scenario where that is no longer the case, you have a pile of scrap metal and maybe some farmland of trivial value.
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Post by phoenix on Sept 1, 2014 11:43:51 GMT
The SNP behaviour doesn't make me at all confident things will continue smoothly in the case of a 'Yes' vote either. That shouldn't be an issue, there's no particular reason to assume that the SNP would hold power in an independent Scotland.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Sept 1, 2014 15:50:26 GMT
One of my big worries about windmills is their seeming lack of reliability and particularly once they are more than a couple of years old. I can see from my office two wind farms one with 12 turbines and the other 8 larger turbines. It is rare on any given day to see all 20 working, usually only one not working but occasionally two or three. I have not got clued up on the technology involved but they don't seem to be very reliable to me! I remember from some of the WT deals, but I guess all, that they insure the income stream against breakdown. From memory they say that on average any particular turbine will need a few days maintenance every year and a few days of 'breakdown'. Burnley says it should be operational for 94% of the time (due to maintenance, I think that's the full 20/22 year period). So when you have 20 WT's altogether I guess you would reguarly see some out of action. When it's three together out of action perhaps it makes sense to do similar maintenance at the same time, but I think that doesn't explain it. I mention Burnley as it's a recon with only two year warranty. IN EDIT 6% of a year is more than 3weeks out of action. 2nd IN EDIT 25/9/14: The Northern Ireland Wind Turbine Loan No.135 Has an interesting answer in the Q&A section dated 21st Sept. it gives a description of a WT getting a refurbishment.
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ramblin rose
Member of DD Central
“Some people grumble that roses have thorns; I am grateful that thorns have roses.” — Alphonse Karr
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Post by ramblin rose on Sept 1, 2014 16:28:33 GMT
A propos of nothing really, I saw a whole new WT being carted in convoy along the motorway in the direction of Burnley last Tuesday morning - probably one of yours I should think (I'm not in the WT loans).
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Sept 1, 2014 17:33:04 GMT
A propos of nothing really, I saw a whole new WT being carted in convoy along the motorway in the direction of Burnley last Tuesday morning - probably one of yours I should think (I'm not in the WT loans). Is that French or an iTypo?
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ramblin rose
Member of DD Central
“Some people grumble that roses have thorns; I am grateful that thorns have roses.” — Alphonse Karr
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Post by ramblin rose on Sept 1, 2014 17:36:05 GMT
A propos of nothing really, I saw a whole new WT being carted in convoy along the motorway in the direction of Burnley last Tuesday morning - probably one of yours I should think (I'm not in the WT loans). Is that French or an iTypo? It's me being a bit highfalutin 
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Sept 1, 2014 20:18:05 GMT
Is that French or an iTypo? It's me being a bit highfalutin I think it's a typo, as my dictionary shows no space in 'apropos'. Does that make me highfalutin? Or merely a pedant? 
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ramblin rose
Member of DD Central
“Some people grumble that roses have thorns; I am grateful that thorns have roses.” — Alphonse Karr
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Post by ramblin rose on Sept 1, 2014 21:12:45 GMT
It's me being a bit highfalutin I think it's a typo, as my dictionary shows no space in 'apropos'. Does that make me highfalutin? Or merely a pedant? Well now, to be totally pedantic, I'd have to say it was a type of typo, but not really the type of typo you suggest The English version is indeed 'apropos', but back in my French study days I learned it as 'à propos' so the missing accent is the thing.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Sept 1, 2014 21:28:06 GMT
Well now, to be totally pedantic, I'd have to say it was a type of typo, but not really the type of typo you suggest Touché! (And that's from someone who never had French lessons.  )
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ramblin rose
Member of DD Central
“Some people grumble that roses have thorns; I am grateful that thorns have roses.” — Alphonse Karr
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Post by ramblin rose on Sept 1, 2014 21:33:58 GMT
(And that's from someone who never had French lessons. ) One of my French lecturers claimed that I didn't either  - but then how did he know who I was?
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Sept 2, 2014 2:20:39 GMT
Thanks for your comments. I think I will reconsider and see if I find any good-looking parts on t'AM.
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)
- but then how did he know who I was?