markr
Member of DD Central
Posts: 766 
Likes: 426
|
Post by markr on Jul 6, 2018 21:21:37 GMT
Here's a plot of my recoveries as a percentage of bad debt plotted over time:  What immediately stands out is the post-September cliff edge! The data shows that this is caused by a big uptick in the rate of new bad debt rather than a fall in recoveries. Proof positive that FC is now lending to any old bent lawyer, trumpet crusher or jeans importer and the loan book post-September has become a dog's breakfast? Well, maybe, except that not a single one of my post-September primary market loans has defaulted! One loan formed after September has defaulted, but it was bought for me on the SM and is only a relatively small part. I'm open to other theories, but I think this shows just how much our manual bidding strategies were shielding us from bad debt, and how quick the correction is when we are denied the strategy. For me, this reinforces the fact that us forumites, almost all of whom used some strategy, can't judge the state of the whole loan book based on our own subset of it. For the record, my strategy was a combination of property sold before the end and flipping any C, D and E loans I could get my hands on, reducing exposure over 6 months or so. I didn't add or remove funds over the period of the plot, just re-invested returns.
|
|
|
|
Post by spareapennyor2 on Jul 7, 2018 6:28:42 GMT
more smoke
update FAGs
we will default loans as and when it is necessary to do so ( OK get that)
we will no longer be publishing a weekly list of all defaulted loans (not surprised counting about 40+ defaults a week this last month?)
so you can only see your defaults/ 3 month wait now to see statistics / think that will be the past quarter so possibly 6 months old statistics/
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,707
Likes: 2,983
|
Post by michaelc on Jul 8, 2018 15:48:47 GMT
Here's a plot of my recoveries as a percentage of bad debt plotted over time: What immediately stands out is the post-September cliff edge! The data shows that this is caused by a big uptick in the rate of new bad debt rather than a fall in recoveries. Proof positive that FC is now lending to any old bent lawyer, trumpet crusher or jeans importer and the loan book post-September has become a dog's breakfast? Well, maybe, except that not a single one of my post-September primary market loans has defaulted! One loan formed after September has defaulted, but it was bought for me on the SM and is only a relatively small part. I'm open to other theories, but I think this shows just how much our manual bidding strategies were shielding us from bad debt, and how quick the correction is when we are denied the strategy. For me, this reinforces the fact that us forumites, almost all of whom used some strategy, can't judge the state of the whole loan book based on our own subset of it. For the record, my strategy was a combination of property sold before the end and flipping any C, D and E loans I could get my hands on, reducing exposure over 6 months or so. I didn't add or remove funds over the period of the plot, just re-invested returns. Really nice work assuming you haven't just drawn the line (and I've absolutely no reason to think that). Thankfully FC is one of the sites I've managed to mostly get out of in time.
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Jul 8, 2018 16:26:02 GMT
For the record, my strategy was a combination of property sold before the end and flipping any C, D and E loans I could get my hands on, reducing exposure over 6 months or so. I didn't add or remove funds over the period of the plot, just re-invested returns. Trouble is Markie, that was never going to be a viable mass market proposition. Even worse, clever peops like you were stuffing the mass market. It had to change. Fire and forget accounts are the only way to p2p growth. Sadly, most other platforms will evolve this way or be content to be niche players
|
|
bigfoot12
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,817
Likes: 816
|
Post by bigfoot12 on Jul 8, 2018 18:12:07 GMT
For the record, my strategy was a combination of property sold before the end and flipping any C, D and E loans I could get my hands on, reducing exposure over 6 months or so. I didn't add or remove funds over the period of the plot, just re-invested returns. Trouble is Markie, that was never going to be a viable mass market proposition. Even worse, clever peops like you were stuffing the mass market. It had to change. Fire and forget accounts are the only way to p2p growth. Sadly, most other platforms will evolve this way or be content to be niche players I agree that FC had to change, and it was probably easier to make the change they did than fix its underlying problems which were many, but I don't think it has to follow that other platforms will have to change. I agree that many on this platform were making returns in excess of 10%, and probably in larger size than the average investor so many must have been doing very badly, my guess is that the median return looked pretty poor. Auto bid was truly awful: it didn't buy a fair share of loans that were good desired and it did buy loans that sensible people were selling including those known to have been late making a payment -  ! And why persist with an auction model once there is no price difference? This was an invite either to FFF or to invest a few hours writing a script. If auto bid bought a proportion of all new loans - easy as FC control both, and 'auctions' used some sort of scale back to deal with over subscription, and if it was possible to tune autobid to only buy new loans, or at least those never to have been in processing for more than one business day it might have been a much fairer platform. Other platforms are more on top of most of these issues!
|
|
! And why persist with an auction model once there is no price difference? This was an invite either to FFF or to invest a few hours writing a script.