TonyL
Posts: 53 
Likes: 98
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Post by TonyL on Jul 13, 2018 20:44:43 GMT
Comparing live loans (my definition: those that can be traded on the SM) with ones involving some sort of dispute and cannot be traded, we are very nearly at parity. Total loan value of tradable loans is £96m whereas loans where our money is currently stuck awaiting resolution has reached £84.6m. I'd really like to know if this present state of affairs was in Lendy's forecast a couple of years ago...ahhh, those were the days. It's amazing to see a high number of those, that we happily traded and fought over with fastest-finger-first, are now languishing in the near two year long "we continue to chase the borrower" endless string of non-productive updates. Don't get me wrong...I am still a lender (for my sins), as ever the optimist I wait patiently for Lendy to get its act together and bring these long drawn-out sagas to a close and make this platform look attractive again. P2P has been around nearly long enough to be considered main stream...but with such a dismal performance of due diligence, worthless valuations and glacier-like actions against defaults, Lendy (and some others) have essentially made it an unattractive landscape for new lenders to join. It's almost unimaginable that this far along Lendy only have around 21500 registered users and many loans barely have 1000 lenders. Let's hope that Cowes week brings in some new money. Come on Lendy Support, get your act together and make this platform attractive again. |
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Post by picanto on Jul 13, 2018 20:58:23 GMT
Does that £84.6 million include the loans which have recovered the capital/used the PF but have claims against them to recover outstanding interest (i.e. PBL147, 123, 074, 067 and 066)? Personally I wouldn't class them as troublesome loans since no investor has lost any capital on them.
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TonyL
Posts: 53
Likes: 98
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Post by TonyL on Jul 13, 2018 21:12:44 GMT
picanto, no I haven't included those you listed. But I included the rest from the 'Claims Underway' list, that had value in the 'Outstanding Loan Amount'...I didn't look into the intricacies of the PF usage, it was just a broad brush Excel dump.
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Post by pmac67 on Jul 13, 2018 21:47:13 GMT
The numbers are pretty shocking really... Every loan I have that will realistically sell is listed. I dunno who is buying them ? but I'm glad they are... I'm an Investor ! Get me out of here...
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Post by df on Jul 13, 2018 22:13:04 GMT
Comparing live loans (my definition: those that can be traded on the SM) with ones involving some sort of dispute and cannot be traded, we are very nearly at parity. Total loan value of tradable loans is £96m whereas loans where our money is currently stuck awaiting resolution has reached £84.6m. I suspect these figures will be shifting (proportion of the latter will increase). My return is decreasing every month, June was 0.55% and I expect it to follow the pattern. 1% in the past was great, but I don't think we'll see it ever again 
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tx
Member of DD Central
Posts: 300
Likes: 127
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Post by tx on Jul 14, 2018 22:16:49 GMT
Comparing live loans (my definition: those that can be traded on the SM) with ones involving some sort of dispute and cannot be traded, we are very nearly at parity. Total loan value of tradable loans is £96m whereas loans where our money is currently stuck awaiting resolution has reached £84.6m. I suspect these figures will be shifting (proportion of the latter will increase). My return is decreasing every month, June was 0.55% and I expect it to follow the pattern. 1% in the past was great, but I don't think we'll see it ever again Wow, 55bps?! That’s 55bps higher than my return last month!
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Post by charliebrown on Jul 15, 2018 2:40:28 GMT
It’s a crazy situation that Lendy are heading for 50% of the loan book in default. Most other platforms quote single figures for defaults. It’s about time the Telegraph ran another article on Lendy’s woeful performance. I noticed a few more 1 star TP reviews have appeared. The only people who think Lendy is doing a great job is Lendy themselves and a few smart/lucky investors who only look at their own position rather then the overall position.
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tx
Member of DD Central
Posts: 300
Likes: 127
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Post by tx on Jul 15, 2018 12:47:44 GMT
On the positive side, some loans are being repaid, hence the ratio is rising faster than it would have been if only loans going bad.
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xpubman1
Member of DD Central
Posts: 62
Likes: 40
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Post by xpubman1 on Jul 15, 2018 13:52:09 GMT
Charlie Brown, please study the default data from The Pussy Platform
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pence
Posts: 46
Likes: 14
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Post by pence on Jul 16, 2018 16:48:50 GMT
Comparing live loans (my definition: those that can be traded on the SM) with ones involving some sort of dispute and cannot be traded, we are very nearly at parity. Total loan value of tradable loans is £96m whereas loans where our money is currently stuck awaiting resolution has reached £84.6m. I suspect these figures will be shifting (proportion of the latter will increase). My return is decreasing every month, June was 0.55% and I expect it to follow the pattern. 1% in the past was great, but I don't think we'll see it ever again That's 6.8% annualized. IF it stays like that (no capital loss etc.) then that's still not that bad. I am wondering what the average annualized interest rate will be in 5 years or so.
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Post by samford71 on Jul 16, 2018 20:36:04 GMT
SS has originated over £406mm in loans since they launched in 2013. So over £200mm in loans have redeemed on the platform. Now some of these are clear cut redemptions or recoveries at par. Some are rollovers of say a PBL into a DFL. These rollovers you can consider either genuine redemptions or really just variants of “extend and pretend”. That’s a subjective call. You can then split this into loan cohorts by year (or quarter) to get some real idea of the actual default rates. That number isn’t even close to 50%. In fact based on my numbers, SS default rates, while poor, are not radically higher than on TC (if we include those loans in arrears on TC as defaults). They are no worse than FS or MT (once seasoning is taken into account).
Yes defaults are high but that was always going to happen on platforms where borrowers are paying 20% to 30%. However, I would recommend crunching a few numbers and doing some basic loan cohort analysis rather than using metrics such as the ratio of tradeable to nontradeable live loans. That’s a meaningless metric. For years SS numbers looked good on that metric because origination volumes were rising rapidly. New loans easily drowned out defaulting loans. SS origination volumes are now flatlining or even falling (£46mm in 1H18). So the reverse effect will occur with NPLs starting to dominate.
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Post by df on Jul 16, 2018 20:38:42 GMT
I suspect these figures will be shifting (proportion of the latter will increase). My return is decreasing every month, June was 0.55% and I expect it to follow the pattern. 1% in the past was great, but I don't think we'll see it ever again That's 6.8% annualized. IF it stays like that (no capital loss etc.) then that's still not that bad. I am wondering what the average annualized interest rate will be in 5 years or so. This is unpredictable. 5 years is a long time. P2P is a young industry and goalposts are very fluid.
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TonyL
Posts: 53
Likes: 98
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Post by TonyL on Jul 17, 2018 9:35:37 GMT
SS has originated over £406mm in loans since they launched in 2013. So over £200mm in loans have redeemed on the platform. Now some of these are clear cut redemptions or recoveries at par. Some are rollovers of say a PBL into a DFL. These rollovers you can consider either genuine redemptions or really just variants of “extend and pretend”. That’s a subjective call. You can then split this into loan cohorts by year (or quarter) to get some real idea of the actual default rates. That number isn’t even close to 50%. In fact based on my numbers, SS default rates, while poor, are not radically higher than on TC (if we include those loans in arrears on TC as defaults). They are no worse than FS or MT (once seasoning is taken into account). Yes defaults are high but that was always going to happen on platforms where borrowers are paying 20% to 30%. However, I would recommend crunching a few numbers and doing some basic loan cohort analysis rather than using metrics such as the ratio of tradeable to nontradeable live loans. That’s a meaningless metric. For years SS numbers looked good on that metric because origination volumes were rising rapidly. New loans easily drowned out defaulting loans. SS origination volumes are now flatlining or even falling (£46mm in 1H18). So the reverse effect will occur with NPLs starting to dominate. I agree entirely with your calculation and analysis. My concern however is how the current situation looks to potential new lenders. I imagine many would be put off joining Lendy if they see a dominance of loans in default or uncooperative borrowers. Potential new lenders would also have to dig down into the historical detail you outlined above (which they should anyway as part of their due diligence) in order to draw a more positive conclusion. As a genuine backer of P2P lending I'd just like to see Lendy doing a better job of fixing their past mistakes quickly and restoring their position as the prime platform in this field.
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