mjc
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Post by mjc on Jan 7, 2019 8:19:40 GMT
I think it’s tea leaves. But: a) with my high diversification strategy I’m in most of them so I reckon it’s pretty accurate loss predictions, b) tea leaves beats FS’s DD hands down. With your high diversification strategy even if you are in most (as I too am) The chances of 100% loss in each is zero. Therfore If prudent exposure in each you would still be making a reasonable return On your investments overall. Some listed have relatively low LTV and just because a project is large doesn’t make it higher risk. These are effectively loans where all payback is on completion of the project. Like a terminal bonus. Am I bovered ... no Well you wouldn’t be bovvered if you sell before term, would you? I have £100 in Ch**ms Q***ry active for 80 days for sale at -1%, you’ve not bitten my hand off for it, wisely. At 13% you only need 1 in 8 to go t*ts up for a big overall loss, or 2 at 50% recovery and that’s assuming the other 6 pay in full. Into drones in pig aerodrome land. p.s. I only ever had about 250 loans simultaneously, and excluding the already declared defaults, I have £2064 interest “due” (not deluded into believing it), but £2,250 in unredeemed. I just like to say it as it is. If anyone wishes to read into that what I think of FS, then so be it. I’m not trying to kid anyone into thinking all is rosy just to get new suckers into the platform just to buy up loan parts for others to make a quick buck.
Seems ms to me that is turning a pseudo ponzi into a true Ponzi scheme that is simply not sustainable.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jan 7, 2019 9:33:30 GMT
I think I have mentioned this before - we trust FS to do relevant DD before they post their loans. I do my own DD where possible - being in this business I do have access to information some of us don't e.g. colleagues of mine know the house in Baronswick and I know the area. However I have actually being developing for 39 years and know this game and I would say 1) it's tough, granted you can sometimes make a quick packet for very little work but often you can't! Yes the more DD the better but not convinced FS do enough 2) when I borrowed money for development I was owned by the bank who knew exactly what I was spending etc and were only too keen to repossess my house given half a chance - are FS so quick to recover their (OUR) assets I don't think so! 3) it's a funny old game and you can end up with totally unexpected losses or gains - what experience do FS have in property - doesn't strike me as very much! FC told us they were pulling out of property which ,to their credit, I think was the right decision. Here is an interesting article from The Times www.ft.com/content/5f4bd650-b737-11e8-bbc3-ccd7de085ffeI don't think the pawn model for most developments is suitable. Thus I have looked at each loan and basically gone on my instinct to decide whether it will be won't be successful. I then drew up my list to see how valid my concerns are - FS v adrian77 if you like. If I am wrong then I will put money into FS loans and if I am only 25% correct I don't think FS is for me. I have put my head above the parapet rather than make cheap comments from the sidelines - if you don't like my posts don't read them (believe me my personal message show a lot of people do). I really would prefer I am completely wrong and most of our money is recovered but time will tell.
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coop
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Post by coop on Jan 7, 2019 9:38:04 GMT
With your high diversification strategy even if you are in most (as I too am) The chances of 100% loss in each is zero. Therfore If prudent exposure in each you would still be making a reasonable return On your investments overall. Some listed have relatively low LTV and just because a project is large doesn’t make it higher risk. These are effectively loans where all payback is on completion of the project. Like a terminal bonus. Am I bovered ... no Well you wouldn’t be bovvered if you sell before term, would you? I have £100 in Ch**ms Q***ry active for 80 days for sale at -1%, you’ve not bitten my hand off for it, wisely. At 13% you only need 1 in 8 to go t*ts up for a big overall loss, or 2 at 50% recovery and that’s assuming the other 6 pay in full. Into drones in pig aerodrome land. p.s. I only ever had about 250 loans simultaneously, and excluding the already declared defaults, I have £2064 interest “due” (not deluded into believing it), but £2,250 in unredeemed. I just like to say it as it is. If anyone wishes to read into that what I think of FS, then so be it. I’m not trying to kid anyone into thinking all is rosy just to get new suckers into the platform just to buy up loan parts for others to make a quick buck.
Seems ms to me that is turning a pseudo ponzi into a true Ponzi scheme that is simply not sustainable. Yes; basically this! I used to do a similar thing on FC; it is a ponzi scheme, you need a never ending stream of people with MUG on their forehead to buy all your crud!! This is where all these really wild sounding APRs come from; I used to think in a similar way on FC - eg get a 8% property loan part with 2% cashback; sell (sometimes for a premium!) within a month or two and hey presto your APR on the loan part is magically 22% or something like that!
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Jan 7, 2019 10:03:59 GMT
With your high diversification strategy even if you are in most (as I too am) The chances of 100% loss in each is zero. Therfore If prudent exposure in each you would still be making a reasonable return On your investments overall. Some listed have relatively low LTV and just because a project is large doesn’t make it higher risk. These are effectively loans where all payback is on completion of the project. Like a terminal bonus. Am I bovered ... no Well you wouldn’t be bovvered if you sell before term, would you? I have £100 in Ch**ms Q***ry active for 80 days for sale at -1%, you’ve not bitten my hand off for it, wisely. At 13% you only need 1 in 8 to go t*ts up for a big overall loss, or 2 at 50% recovery and that’s assuming the other 6 pay in full. Into drones in pig aerodrome land. p.s. I only ever had about 250 loans simultaneously, and excluding the already declared defaults, I have £2064 interest “due” (not deluded into believing it), but £2,250 in unredeemed. I just like to say it as it is. If anyone wishes to read into that what I think of FS, then so be it. I’m not trying to kid anyone into thinking all is rosy just to get new suckers into the platform just to buy up loan parts for others to make a quick buck.
Seems ms to me that is turning a pseudo ponzi into a true Ponzi scheme that is simply not sustainable. Your loan part would be of no interest to me as there is little chance to resell. I buy the wayward parts where there is 0.5% difference in the top discount and the next in loans that are attractive it requires constant monitoring of every loan part for sale which I,m set up to do. In any 8 loans you should have 10% or less of your portfolio if you buy at end that includes accrued interest and return 16>24% 1 fails you lose 1.5% approx the other loans will make more than enough to cover the loss. For those that think you need mugs to buy . People always buy as there are insufficient new loans to invest in the trick is always to be at the top of their buying list and that takes a lot of carefull analysis and not least Money 💰 Your unredeemed will give some return so you will be in profit. I have nearly £30000 in accrued interest and approx £10000 in unredeemed loans. The interest is of little concern as it is the fallback position profit comes from sales and reducing tax to zero. I agree things are not as they should and platforms should do more to tackle fraud and incorrect valuations. P2P should be a well considered part of overall savings plan. Like cryptocurrency it is not for the novice investor. That is with the exception of Welendus it seems to have learned from others mistakes and I would suggest it is the best place for smaller or novice P2P investor or those who want an invest and forget attitude.
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bg
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Post by bg on Jan 7, 2019 10:45:02 GMT
Thus I have looked at each loan and basically gone on my instinct to decide whether it will be won't be successful. I then drew up my list to see how valid my concerns are - FS v adrian77 if you like. If I am wrong then I will put money into FS loans and if I am only 25% correct I don't think FS is for me. I have put my head above the parapet rather than make cheap comments from the sidelines - if you don't like my posts don't read them (believe me my personal message show a lot of people do). I really would prefer I am completely wrong and most of our money is recovered but time will tell. You haven't though. In general what you have done is chosen all the late and distressed loans and predicted that those with high LTV and second/third charges there will be big losses. Meanwhile you have ignored the thousands of loans that have been fully recovered or are not distressed.....you are then inferring that FS lose money on most loans. ie from the top (and i'm not going through all your list) 1. Wimbledon. Third charge loan and the contractor died during the build. Clear in 2017 there is likely to be a wipe out of the FS loan - you 'predict' as much in July 2018 2. Knaresborough. Second charge loan where the main property sold for less than the first charge in April 2018. You predict in July 2018 a 100% loss...but did not spot that there were also two BTL's offered as security. One BTL has sold leading to a 12% recovery so far and the second is still in the process of being sold. All in a terrible prediction. 3. Whitehaven. One of the biggest problem loans FS has. Well flagged since 2017 that a big capital loss was forthcoming. Doesn't take mystic meg to predict as much in July 2018. 4 and 5. Specialist boats. Clear to anyone that if the planned exit runs into problems there is likely to be a big loss on these loans (I would never invest in loans such as these). Recovery still ongoing. I could go on. How about you go through each new FS loan and make your prediction instead of just cherry picking the ones that have already gone pop? You make a big thing about only having got one prediction wrong (I strongly disagree with that), how about turning the question on its head and saying how many you have actually got right?
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sqh
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Post by sqh on Jan 7, 2019 12:28:38 GMT
adrian77Don't forget your prediction for the Suffolk Snow Dome. It seems to have been conveniently forgotten from your list. Here's a reminder. p2pindependentforum.com/post/277058It was fully repaid with interest, a nice little belter !
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jan 7, 2019 13:01:43 GMT
P**k H*mes worthy of inclusion. Approx £300k borrowed, 4 out of the 7 actually built. 60% loss predicted absolutely please see 9a and 9b of my mega list
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jan 7, 2019 13:32:47 GMT
very true - not forgotten but never made it to my list - did I think it would go pectorals up if not refinanced- absolutely- did I buy into it after reading various posts and taking a gamble it would be refinanced - yes and that is why it never made my list...mind you glad I am not holding this one with another lender!
Interesting point here - is it a good plan to buy such loans and gamble on them being refinanced - don't know but I don't doubt a certain Egyptian god does this...
There are 40 loans in my list and just interested to see how they turn out - iwhat is more important is the overall default on the total loan book as detailed by dan1 - you can criticise me all you like but his data doesn't lie and will show us just how good or bad the FS platform is
That is very similar to the figures I computed and precisely why I think it is so important to measure just how many FS loans do or don't go horribly wrong - as I said before I was slow to realise it but it is no good having a return of 13% today if at year end x% of loans fail and wipe out the gains to date. I appreciate FS may not appreciate their track record being validated but it is our money and business is business - that said I expect my return to about 4% (difficult to be precise until the 30% of my unsellable loan book is recovered) which I guess is not too bad and better than my *opa or No-hoper more like p2p investment
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ozboy
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Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
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Post by ozboy on Jan 7, 2019 13:54:51 GMT
very true - not forgotten but never made it to my list - did I think it would go pectorals up if not refinanced- absolutely- did I buy into it after reading various posts and taking a gamble it would be refinanced - yes and that is why it never made my list...mind you glad I am not holding this one with another lender! Interesting point here - is it a good plan to buy such loans and gamble on them being refinanced - don't know but I don't doubt a certain Egyptian god does this... There are 40 loans in my list and just interested to see how they turn out - iwhat is more important is the overall default on the total loan book as detailed by dan1 - you can criticise me all you like but his data doesn't lie and will show us just how good or bad the FS platform is That is very similar to the figures I computed and precisely why I think it is so important to measure just how many FS loans do or don't go horribly wrong - as I said before I was slow to realise it but it is no good having a return of 13% today if at year end x% of loans fail and wipe out the gains to date. I appreciate FS may not appreciate their track record being validated but it is our money and business is business - that said I expect my return to about 4% (difficult to be precise until the 30% of my unsellable loan book is recovered) which I guess is not too bad and better than my *opa or No-hoper more like p2p investment Yes, arguably acceptable. Except, of course, for the tedious amount of concentrated & laborious hard WORK you have to put in. We won't mention the stress.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jan 12, 2019 11:59:18 GMT
As I said I am going to finish my top 40 list and update my previous predictions predictions update 1) Wimbledon. This was even a bigger disaster than I predicted. The first charge has not even been met let alone the FS third charge. FS talk about future recovery - fat chance! prediction 100% loss - actual result (barring a miracle) 100% loss 2) Knaresborough predicted loss 100% viz premier league on £725K if my maths are correct actual recovery £151,080 = 21% so a slightly higher return than predcited here but still a premier league loss. top 40 update 31) C*elms Quarry This all looks very ambitious build to me and that the developer has borrowed £1.53m for a plot which will decrease in value once the original buildings have been demolished – rings a bell doesn't it! For me just too many directorships and ongoing projects and the balance sheet I have seen is not very encouraging! I can't see where the £1.m due within the next 3-4 months is going to come from. So I have this one down as 2867890404 £770K borrowed predicted loss 50% league 1 3075461346 £830K borrowed predicted loss 50% league 1 If you don't agree with me then you can buy these loans on the SM with 1% discount and good luck to you! 32) Shepton Mallet I think the following 2 have the same borrower ? 32a) Shepton Mallet Building 2291716796 £135K borrowed - predicted loss 0% 1841204597 £50K borrowed '' '' 50% league ` but premier league would not surprise me. FS states interest has been received for the £135K loan but also shows this loan as late and being due on 27/09/2018 so puzzled. Also we have been told building has stopped as developer working on other projects (good job he has not run out of money!) So this chap is borrowing money at 20% or whatever and the asset is not being improved... This one worries me so have made predictions as above 32b) Shepton Mallet land ownership etc looks too complicated for me and is leasehold – I suspect the rental income is less than the FS interest – again this one is late 7071679925 £265K borrowed predicted loss 50% league 1 first page of original post p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12971/fa-league-predicted-mega-failures
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jan 20, 2019 17:43:59 GMT
Have updated my mega list for loans 5 - 10 as below 5) powerboat loan 5818112533 update 20.01.19 loan repayment now over 3 years late. Yet again even more promised deadlines that never materialised E******** Endurance Boat - Renewal and Increased Borrowing (2535541073) launch date already delayed by nearly 2 year and boat not even yet finished loan repayment 18 months late I think there was a £1m FS loan which was cancelled As I see it lots of warm words but no evidence (yet?) whatsoever how this money is going to be repaid. 6) Farmhouse Barnoldswick 1st Charge Barnoldswick (8010286828) 587K loan repayment over 12 months late 2nd Charge Barnoldswick (2861004433) 188K '' '' 13 months '' house is damaged by the bankrupt developer who is facing eviction from it - Cottage Barnoldswick Property in Barnoldswick - Renewal (1079396222) loan repayment over 9 months late FS failed to have secure a charge against the cottage looks like my original prediction will be over generous by the time this complete shambles is resolved ! Only good thing (I think) is that FS have said they will compensate for the lack of the security. 7) South Wales Property : South Wales Property (1442701959) £420K loan repayment nearly 3 years late - Second Loan (1740709902) £100K -----------ditto---------- under receivership - going to be a complete disaster... 8) Military and Time Piece Collection will clarify when I get time but we have had a renewal since my original post although there still seems to be overdue loan completions as well here? eg Military and Time Piece Collection - Renewal (1013434811) £359,843.14 nearly 4 months late? Goodish news - may be a possible buyer here.... 9) my favourite P**k H*mes: borrower company has gone bust no site for units only 2 completed FS thinking about what to do with these - my advice give up the day job! well on target for another Whitehaven syndrome ! 10) Trains very confusing about what has happened here seems to be just under 75% capital loss I had this one as 50% loss league one so correct although I under-estimated the total loss Summary my predictions on average have underestimated the actual losses for the first 10 loans with the possible exception of the military items which may or may not come good Am I glad I did not invest in the about 10 items... first page of original post p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12971/fa-league-predicted-mega-failures
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arby
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Post by arby on Jan 21, 2019 7:27:57 GMT
Weren't the trains a ~40% loss, not ~75% as you've mentioned? Still bad either way, but I know which one I'd choose if I had to....
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jan 21, 2019 12:00:50 GMT
I am sure it was the latter - however when I get time I will try and work out the actual loss - quite happy for FS to confirm the end result. Sign of the times when a 40% loss is seen as a better result!
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jan 27, 2019 14:27:31 GMT
I have updated my prediction for loans 11 -1 15 as per below (abbreviated)
12) was a 100% wrong but to date only 1 out of 15 has been a 100% recovery - according to FS loan 14) - East Ham property may come good so interesting one to watch.
11) Newcastle student flats Haven't time to do detailed research so a very superficial comment loan £860K predicted loss £360K– League 1 update 26.01.19 - this one is now 20 months old -still awaiting planning as of Jan 2019
12) Cinema - granted this one may have a serious buyer who will cover the loan but I really can't see it especially as were originally told update 26.01.19 called this one 100% wrong - pleased for the investors...
-- 13) Mixed Use Property, Liverpool loan total £625K update 26.01.19 actual loss £625K - £440.5K i.e. £184.5k loss = 30% loss - league 2 as predicted
14) East Ham Property loan £77K (second charge) complete and utter disaster easily a loss of over 75% - Premiership (could be a 100% loss?) update 26.01.19 this one is in default receivers have an offer of £470K which FS say will repay the first charge and this one - not with my maths which may be wrong so time will tell - possibly another call which was 100% wrong
15) Land Lytham St Annes update 26.01.19 borrower has breached FS's deadline so they are now taking legal advice I think the earliest due loan is now 5 months late but there are plenty of others which are overdue or due very soon - not looking good to me! For original list please see
p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12971/fa-league-predicted-mega-failures
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locutus
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Post by locutus on Jan 30, 2019 10:48:35 GMT
You have started 13 individual threads to date predicting "mega failures" on the FS board. Unless you have ulterior motives, I can see no need to pollute the board with 13 threads of this nature. Why don't you just maintain a single thread and update it as you go along? Even better, you can add some analysis to each of your posts and explain your reasons for the predictions.
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