adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 27, 2018 15:19:02 GMT
Hope we all had a good Xmas - I have added to my FA league of predicted mega failures as below 29) New Brighton This is linked to other loans -see excellent mrclondon post p2pindependentforum.com/thread/10789/dell-rock-ferry-birkenhead-wirralAccording to the agents this one won't be finished until early 2019 so no idea how much more work is to be done but full credit to the developer for spending 1m smackers on the fire system I think we have £1.5m first charge predicted loss 0% £370K second charge predicted loss 50% finished units are for sale at £85K per unit but they aren't all finished and £85K seems high to me - don't know if the receiver will finish them or just get shot of them... It looks to me that we have several developments underpinned by several companies with 2 bankruptcy petitions - as we receivers say "kerching!". If we budget £40K net per unit then we are talking about a loss after interest. I can foresee yet another 100% loss on the second charge but have this one down at a 50% loss. I can also see a local developer making a low offer on the whole development and then finishing it off - that's the way to do it! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I am going to add another 11 loans to my list and then update my predictions with the actual results over the next year. To date I have called one very badly wrong - viz no 12) cinema ; that does not mean is wasn't a wild punt but well done to the developer for pulling it off. no 13) Mixed Use Property, Liverpool came in at a 29.5% loss against my prediction of 25% Many of my other predictions seem to have underestimated the total loss which is very worrying to me! Granted the VIP and a couple of others may well do better than I predicted but I find the overall FS default position very concerning - see the excellent dan1 post p2pindependentforum.com/thread/13234/fs-all-active-past-loans?page=10We will see what 2019 brings As I have said before these are only my personal predictions which I am using to gauge how valid my assessments of FS loan offers are - I am not trying to do anybody down - if anybody has large sums in these loans then note a) I may well be wrong and b) if I am correct please don't shoot the messenger! For first page of original post please see p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12971/fa-league-predicted-mega-failures
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r1200gs
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Post by r1200gs on Dec 27, 2018 16:35:19 GMT
I do hope you're right about that first charge on the New Brighton development, it's my only chance of getting off this platform with most of my shirt intact. Heavily overweight in this and in fact it's 80 percent of my remaining FS "investments".
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james21
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Post by james21 on Dec 27, 2018 17:47:15 GMT
Hope we all had a good Xmas - I added to my FA league of predicted mega failures as below 29) New Brighton This is linked to other loans -see excellent mrclondon post p2pindependentforum.com/thread/10789/dell-rock-ferry-birkenhead-wirralAccording to the agents this one won't be finished until early 2019 so no idea how much more work is to be done but full credit to the developer for spending 1m smackers on the fire system I think we have £1.5m first charge predicted loss 0% £370K second charge predicted loss 50% finished units are for sale at £85K per unit but they aren't all finished and £85K seems high to me - don't know if the receiver will finish them or just get shot of them... It looks to me that we have several developments underpinned by several companies with 2 bankruptcy petitions - as we receivers say "kerching!". If we budget £40K net per unit then we are talking about a loss after interest. I can foresee yet another 100% loss on the second charge but have this one down at a 50% loss. I can also see a local developer making a low offer on the whole development and then finishing it off - that's the way to do it! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I am going to add another 11 loans to my list and then update my predictions with the actual results over the next year. To date I have called one very badly wrong - viz no 12) cinema ; that does not mean is wasn't a wild punt but well done to the developer for pulling it off. no 13) Mixed Use Property, Liverpool came in at a 29.5% loss against my prediction of 25% Many of my other predictions seem to have underestimated the total loss which is very worrying to me! Granted the VIP and a couple of others may well do better than I predicted but I find the overall FS default position very concerning - see the excellent dan1 post p2pindependentforum.com/thread/13234/fs-all-active-past-loans?page=10We will see what 2019 brings As I have said before these are only my personal predictions which I am using to gauge how valid my assessments of FS loan offers are - I am not trying to do anybody down - if anybody has large sums in these loans then note a) I may well be wrong and b) if I am correct please don't shoot the messenger! For first page of original post please see p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12971/fa-league-predicted-mega-failuresPretty much agree everything you say, the cinema was a fluke, was a dead cert for a default (but glad it didnt). The fellow with the tower block and his other 4 loans all look to be in trouble and will probably end badly for us lenders, worse of course for the supplemental lenders, I keep saying it; have nothing to do with FS second charges, fall behind tranches or supplemental loans especially for the big developments where the latter two usually feature. Predicting cost out turn for big developments is very difficult and with astronomical interest to pay by the borrower over a protracted period, its very very high risk
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r1200gs
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Post by r1200gs on Dec 27, 2018 18:01:34 GMT
It's difficult to see how the first charge holders in the tower block could loose out with an LTV of 15 percent, though otherwise I agree entirely. Just let that one get paid and I'll get out of here with my shirt intact, even if a little creased.
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coop
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Post by coop on Jan 4, 2019 10:22:43 GMT
Some of these could do with an update - I've just noticed Knaresborough is going better than you expected - you predicted a 100% loss, approx 12% was returned in August; they still have another property (net equity £167k) to dispose of and there seems to be no more charges in front of the FS charge (although with more legal gubbins and therefore fees this time!). Receiver and legal fees on the last one were c. £20k so if we assume higher for this one as "This remains a slow process due to specifics relating to this case that due to their sensitive nature we are advised to not divulge at this stage". Call it £27k so about another £140k recovered which would be another c. 22% recovery for about 34% recovery in total.
Also: "Separately we are investigating the possibility of pursuing the borrower’s wife, who was a co-signature to the agreement." I can't imagine that will be too fruitful but who knows!
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jan 4, 2019 11:56:16 GMT
Some of these could do with an update
fair point - it is in hand - as I said earlier I am going to stop at 40 loans and then update my prediction on a monthly basis but will start the updating this weekend
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Jan 5, 2019 15:08:30 GMT
Just had quick look at this thread . Perhaps a summary for last year how many 100% predicted loss loans were actually 100% ?
How many predictions of loss were within 3 standard deviations of actual loss.
This would show predictions were accurate and not just best quess ??
Did notice VIP was predicted loss when it actually paid back and reduced. (he was always late but has paid since 2016)
Artwork & whithaven both possibly outright frauds.
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09dolphin
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Post by 09dolphin on Jan 6, 2019 0:25:00 GMT
Just had quick look at this thread . Perhaps a summary for last year how many 100% predicted loss loans were actually 100% ?
How many predictions of loss were within 3 standard deviations of actual loss.
This would show predictions were accurate and not just best quess ??
Did notice VIP was predicted loss when it actually paid back and reduced. (he was always late but has paid since 2016)
Artwork & whithaven both possibly outright frauds.
So why don't you produce the data of the 3 standard deviations of actual loss? (What Godanubis is referring to is the average or means for multiple sets of data and it's used to determine how close the sets of data are to the means of all sets of data). As it's impossible to do this prior to the result of the outcome of the loan - which it is - why would Godanubus be suggesting this is a useful tool? Of course this can only be done when the final result of the loan is known and perhaps Godanubis would like to give us the results!!
Predictions are just that - predictions.
A loss of capital is a loss and if all investors took the Grodanubis stance of selling loans before the loans completion date I would suggest these investors will have significant losses. Godanubis must be so glad he can take advantage of less sophisticated investors.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Jan 6, 2019 2:58:40 GMT
Just had quick look at this thread . Perhaps a summary for last year how many 100% predicted loss loans were actually 100% ?
How many predictions of loss were within 3 standard deviations of actual loss.
This would show predictions were accurate and not just best quess ??
Did notice VIP was predicted loss when it actually paid back and reduced. (he was always late but has paid since 2016)
Artwork & whithaven both possibly outright frauds.
So why don't you produce the data of the 3 standard deviations of actual loss? (What Godanubis is referring to is the average or means for multiple sets of data and it's used to determine how close the sets of data are to the means of all sets of data). As it's impossible to do this prior to the result of the outcome of the loan - which it is - why would Godanubus be suggesting this is a useful tool? Of course this can only be done when the final result of the loan is known and perhaps Godanubis would like to give us the results!!
Predictions are just that - predictions.
A loss of capital is a loss and if all investors took the Grodanubis stance of selling loans before the loans completion date I would suggest these investors will have significant losses. Godanubis must be so glad he can take advantage of less sophisticated investors.
My point exactly there is insufficient data to reach the conclusions given. Predictions require data that simply is not available so just a guess. My predictions based on data is nobody who invests <1% of their portfolio in any one loan will ever make an overall loss. Surprise surprise that one came true... Every winter for the last 8 years has been predicted to be the worst ever. That never materialised and that was based on considerable data. it is impossible to make a loss selling a loan part that Has made more than 1% in accrued interest. I have few friends with <£10000 portfolios who by buying the quality loans that meet exacting criteria with less than 1% in each happily sell before completion and make a >10% return tax and risk free. If they have met the investment criteria and have not been able to selll which is unlikely as I will have bought their part in my daily roundup. I will buy their and any other just let me know. You can never make a loss only a reduced return for reduced risk and no tax. That is why there are parts for sale that actually give -1% when the have barely made that ininterest. investing in P2P is not for the unsophisticated investor it should only be undertaken after much study of the complexities and risks. That leaves them the safe haven of the secure IFA advised investments. Not working out well for them this year and last year. I buy parts that allow such investors a chance to get out with reasonable tax free return and no risk with realatively high liquidity . The higher returns and associated risks should only be undertaken cautiously with full understanding of the risks. I have the time and resources to take best advantage of all situations and yes I am here to make money like everybody else
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jan 6, 2019 15:39:36 GMT
I have clearly stated my comments are mere and simple predictions or to put another way an intelligent (hopefully!) guess which I using to validate my investing strategy. All this talk about 3 standard deviations is clearly twaddle in this situation (and yes I studied statistics at university). To date I have called one completely wrong - well nobody is going to get 100% correct. If I come out with 30/40 wrong I think a 25% failure rate will validate my decision not to invest in such FS loans. If I am 100% wrong then clearly FS is a winning platform...
Granted FS are not the only platform with problematic loans but it looks to me that the p2p industry has a good future but only after the FCA actually do something and legislation is introduced - I can already hear the "blame Brexit" excuses! In the meantime my wallet is firmly shut.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jan 6, 2019 16:22:14 GMT
30) Viney Bridge Mill This one worries me - seems a very problematic development to me with lot of money lent out and still not generating income. This is just my opinion! However I predict of if you prefer, guess: 30a) first charge £1.25m 0% loss 30b) second charge £222K quite possibly 100% loss but say 50% loss 30c) third charge (I think) £28K 100% loss these are my final 10 predictions/guesses which I will try and update later this week - be interesting to see how they come out... 31 C****s quarry 32 Shepton Mallet 33 R***y hall 34 The *ell 35 Barnett 36 A***d Road The Wirral 37 C**den Street Liverpool 38 D***ds Green 39 Land in L*** st Annes 40 Zummerzet Properties also worried my G****ugh House which I suspect may be a belter but am sticking with the above 10. Also will try and work out just how much was (or rather wasn't) recovered from Wimbledon,Knaresborough etc) First page of original post p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12971/fa-league-predicted-mega-failures
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locutus
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Post by locutus on Jan 6, 2019 16:42:39 GMT
adrian77 I'm confused about the precise purpose of this post. It just seems like a list of loans with some very wild guesses and zero actual analysis. Have you uncovered any new information that has led you to your conclusions? Perhaps you have gleaned some new information from Companies House? Or have you observed that a search has been conducted at the Land Registry? Maybe you have found an update on the local planning portal? Or did you conduct a site visit? Did you read a local news story mentioning the security? Or have I completely misunderstood and you have simply looked at the pattern the tea leaves have made in your morning brew?
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james21
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Post by james21 on Jan 6, 2019 16:56:57 GMT
P**k H*mes worthy of inclusion. Approx £300k borrowed, 4 out of the 7 actually built. 60% loss predicted
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mjc
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Post by mjc on Jan 6, 2019 19:11:26 GMT
I think it’s tea leaves. But: a) with my high diversification strategy I’m in most of them so I reckon it’s pretty accurate loss predictions, b) tea leaves beats FS’s DD hands down.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Jan 6, 2019 23:42:26 GMT
I think it’s tea leaves. But: a) with my high diversification strategy I’m in most of them so I reckon it’s pretty accurate loss predictions, b) tea leaves beats FS’s DD hands down. With your high diversification strategy even if you are in most (as I too am) The chances of 100% loss in each is zero. Therfore If prudent exposure in each you would still be making a reasonable return On your investments overall. Some listed have relatively low LTV and just because a project is large doesn’t make it higher risk. These are effectively loans where all payback is on completion of the project. Like a terminal bonus. Am I bovered ... no
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