aju
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Post by aju on Aug 2, 2018 11:54:38 GMT
Bank base Interest Rate has risen today by quarter of 1% to 0.75%. (about time too if you ask me this was about 2 years too late but what do I know)
Just curious how this affects picking up sold loans if the rate rise is factored in as rates change. Does this mean that someone who sells a loan that I then pick will be selling a loan that could effectively be lower than the rates on offer when it is sold.
I'm probably not explaining it very well but as rates rise and fall does this not have an effect on the selling of loans (1% fee + adjustments) and buying loans that were sold that way.
Also will be interesting to see if Zopa rates rise on the back of this too. I suspect it's irrelevant if the wider market doesn't respond. I always thought that its been a long time since commercial IR's lost their connection to the bank rate a long time ago.
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Post by wyndstryke on Aug 2, 2018 13:20:59 GMT
It'll make zero difference in the short term, and probably minimal difference in the long term.
The thing which affects the loan rates most directly is the subsidised lending from the BoE to the high street banks (I forget the name of the scheme, sorry)... that's why the banks don't care about savers any more. ... Probably LIBOR / SONIA is the most visible indication of this?
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 2, 2018 14:02:26 GMT
It'll make zero difference in the short term, and probably minimal difference in the long term. The thing which affects the loan rates most directly is the subsidised lending from the BoE to the high street banks (I forget the name of the scheme, sorry)... that's why the banks don't care about savers any more. ... Probably LIBOR / SONIA is the most visible indication of this? Is that the QE thingy (Quantative Easing I think, deflation I think it used to called in years gone by ;-0) they always seem to go on about?. I think I read somewhere recently that they were planning to claw that lot back sometime soon. Perhaps if that's the case then the banks will need our money for mortgages and things. Thing is though I gave up on traditional saving accounts years ago, when the current accounts offered best deals in the cash market. I think the same as you though it'll make no real difference to Zopa other than if the banks lend at higher rates than current then it must all Zopa to drive up rates. I thought the reason Zopa rates were so damned low were because everywhere else's rates for lending were lower. Surely the rate rise will affect general borrowing rates, definitely the credit cards recently seemed to tie their voluminous rates to base rises, I thought they did that. I seem to remember my Santander Zero terms changed to tie in to the base rate, might tesco CC. I don't pay that much attention as I only use credit for my benefit rather than for their benefits so just noticed it in the skim of the terms changes. [EDIT] Just looked up SONIA (Sterling Over Night Index Average) very interesting, the notion that this will be more reliable than LIBOR rate is a curious one. Lets see how long it takes to frig that one then ;-) They'll need some bedding in time to figure one out but they most surely will ......
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 2, 2018 15:51:28 GMT
It does not mean much to me for a tiny rate rise, because I don't borrow. I just hope the rate is not going back to 5% or higher too soon. This will effectively move money out from P2P. When Zopa first started, BOE rate was around 4+%, but investor rate was not much higher.
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 2, 2018 17:21:15 GMT
It does not mean much to me for a tiny rate rise, because I don't borrow. I just hope the rate is not going back to 5% or higher too soon. This will effectively move money out from P2P. When Zopa first started, BOE rate was around 4+%, but investor rate was not much higher. I remember the Icelandic banks era just before the crash, late 2007 I think it was, that was fun. I did a stooze on one of those when they were at 7%+ return rates, when they went belly up it was lucky that I didn't lose my shirt on that one fortunately they were bailed out somehow I think. I seem to remember I took a punt with money I borrowed from one of my CC cards where the rate on teh card was 3% I think. That was worth a punt as long as they didn;t fold. Never will I borrow at low rates to get higher return rates again, too risky by far, mind you I wasn't retired then. In fact that's the one and only time i've borrowed since late 2007 anyway when I had paid off all my debts apart from the mortgage at that time with my kings ransom from my workplace at the time. I still use credit cards but its in my favour and pay them off as I go, they are great for exchange rates foreign parts. I'm quite loaded up on P2P money so money moving to other forms is not my desire. I think though that P2P will follow the lending rates wherever they go well the 3 main ones at least. Mind you it remains to be seen what happens with banking on the Zopa front too. I do hope there is adequate walling between the bank and the P2P side for Zopa at least as that's the only platform I'm in.
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 3, 2018 17:32:38 GMT
So Zopa's Regulatory Analyst has given their view of the recent 0.25% rate rise here. The relevant section of use for Zopa-ites states .... There is more but nothing that really isn't most other finance news places. So there you have it!
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 3, 2018 21:52:30 GMT
The BOE rate has been 0.5% for a very long period from 2009 till 2016, then dropped to 0.25%, but zopa return was droped when the classic was launched.
When boe rate was raised to the 0.5 again in 2017, the projected return of core and plus was lowered.
so I doubt zopa investors will get higher net return even then boe rate is raised d, it’s more likely the opposite due to higher default risk.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Aug 4, 2018 7:55:42 GMT
Higher interest rates slow down the economy, increase unemployment and therefore defaults.
look VERY closely at unemployment statistics in coming months, as your defaults will increase with any increase.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Aug 4, 2018 9:24:55 GMT
Higher interest rates slow down the economy, increase unemployment and therefore defaults. look VERY closely at unemployment statistics in coming months, as your defaults will increase with any increase. In general, I'd agree with you and certainly if it had been a meaningful increase. However, with base rate at what must be the 3rd lowest rate in decades, I doubt it'll have much effect at all (but time will tell).
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Aug 4, 2018 14:16:16 GMT
Depends how you define 'meaningful' .. it's a 50% increase on what was applying before (.75/.5 = 150%), and there are probably borrowers who really believe that the last 10 years is "just normal", since they've no experience of the 'previous normal', which was ~5% or more (go back to the 1970s, and 15% or more).
Hopefully nobody ha been digging a big hole for themselves by assuming that 0.5% would go on forever (or digging a big hole for someone else by lending 120% of value and 4x current salary at ~1.5% or so). However I wouldn't be amazed to find some surprised borrowers out there before long - never underestimate stupidity and/or greed. The mugs paying 15-20-25% on credit cards probably won't notice though .. 0.25% is lost in the noise.
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 4, 2018 18:17:29 GMT
Depends how you define 'meaningful' .. it's a 50% increase on what was applying before (.75/.5 = 150%), and there are probably borrowers who really believe that the last 10 years is "just normal", since they've no experience of the 'previous normal', which was ~5% or more (go back to the 1970s, and 15% or more).
Hopefully nobody ha been digging a big hole for themselves by assuming that 0.5% would go on forever (or digging a big hole for someone else by lending 120% of value and 4x current salary at ~1.5% or so). However I wouldn't be amazed to find some surprised borrowers out there before long - never underestimate stupidity and/or greed. The mugs paying 15-20-25% on credit cards probably won't notice though .. 0.25% is lost in the noise.
In the late 80% the mortgage rate I was on (Nationwide at the time) went up to 14%+ from 7% I seem to recall. I'd like to be on the other side of some of that now that I haven't had a mortgage for the best part of 7 years or so. The thing is anyone who is on an SVR, the most likely to rise the quickest, is probably on much higher than 0.5% so the increase might not hit them that hard. I do agree though it must be hard for many who do not have the benefit of history behind them. If anyone was lucky enough to be on 0.5% then it will be a 50% hike in payments almost. I remember for us it was particularly a hard knock having been recently promoted to a manager on quite a bit more money but not that bigger 1st rung as I lost a lot of overtime at the time. I remember we had just moved up the ladder house wise and as you did in them days took on as much debt as I could afford as inflation always knocked it for six after the 1st couple of years or so. So the cost doubled overnight and we had less money coming in ... we took on some foreign students, in cambridge it was the norm at the time, they helped us out of a big hole a the time but it was hard I remember.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Aug 5, 2018 11:55:59 GMT
I think the base rate rise was a good thing.
Base rate went down to 0.5% because we were facing an emergency, i.e. the threat that the financial system (especially the banks) would fail. That threat is long gone. Sooner or later there'll be another recession and the BoE doesn't want to be caught with ultra-low base rate at that time, as they'd have nowhere to go except perhaps negative rates.
Borrowers - both people and businesses - should have used the (much) lower rates to reduce their debt load. Some no doubt did that, whilst others will have taken the opportunity to pile on more debt. If that's long term debt it's not a good move, as rates would only be going upwards.
Very low rates
-encourage money to pour into assets in the hunt for yield, including housing and stock markets, forcing them upwards. Very good for those who have the money to invest, not so good for society as a whole.
-keep 'zombie' firms alive, i.e. firms that one would have expected to fail if it were not for plentiful very cheap money. Better that the firms fail and the staff get forced to go and work for more productive firms.
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coogaruk
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Post by coogaruk on Aug 5, 2018 12:28:24 GMT
Personally I have been gradually moving back into cash for a while now, having as far as P2P goes knocked Zopa on the head some time ago and Funding Circle more recently (though I still have current earnings invested in both, winding down as repayments come back in). Just RateSetter left to go now.
Not just because of last Thursday's BoE increase in the Base Rate but with one eye on the longer term future. I still have a good percentage invested in Fixed Interest bond funds and interest rate rises will have a negative effect on these, so moving back into cash will offset anticipated capital losses on them but I won't be selling out in a big way as the yields are still very good, especially given the price I bought many of them at.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Aug 5, 2018 14:29:57 GMT
I’m in p2p until the employment situation worsens. 3 months of rises will see me withdrawing.
I know times were different but I did go through the debt tsunami of 2008 with ZOPA and made some money - unlike my shares which went down c30% and took some years to back to base level. And unlike my Icelandic bank deposits which went totally down the toilet until the kind HMG stepped in and saved me.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Aug 6, 2018 14:02:50 GMT
Bank base Interest Rate has risen today by quarter of 1% to 0.75%. (about time too if you ask me this was about 2 years too late but what do I know) Just curious how this affects picking up sold loans if the rate rise is factored in as rates change. Does this mean that someone who sells a loan that I then pick will be selling a loan that could effectively be lower than the rates on offer when it is sold. I'm probably not explaining it very well but as rates rise and fall does this not have an effect on the selling of loans (1% fee + adjustments) and buying loans that were sold that way. Also will be interesting to see if Zopa rates rise on the back of this too. I suspect it's irrelevant if the wider market doesn't respond. I always thought that its been a long time since commercial IR's lost their connection to the bank rate a long time ago. I believe that the seller takes a hit so that you, the buyer, get the current % rate. This is what I take the wording to mean when I sell loans, that I may get back less owing to interest rate rise.
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