Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Aug 19, 2018 9:55:27 GMT
Of the loans selling currently at -1% more than 30 have less that £2500 actually selling at -1% I have sufficient funds to buy them all and then sell at what I decide is required to make small profit on each. Again I ask show evidence of overall losses. Buy them all, if you feel good in throwing your money out. The point is not if some people have the means to buy them, but is that in reality NOBODY is buying them, even at 1% discount! The market real sales (not fantasy thoughts) have gone down drammatically in the last 45-60 days and this simply shows that people are understanding that FS cannot survive without a radical change in attitude and show of some quick and real hard work on recoveries (and NPLs decrease to an acceptable level). Sales are down I agree that is because the money invested is stagnant at the moment and those who invested expecting liquidity have been caught with their collective pants down and are offering things at -1% there a still lots of obscure little loan parts available to flip. If you reclassified NPL to those a year late then everything performs. Performance criteria are individual yours appears to be pay on the day or else. That’s why so many big companies have 90 day or more till they pay putting smaller businesses under strain. It is the way of the world that needs to be taken into account. P2P not for feckless or faint hearted. Your warnings should be heeded by those that ignore the big warnings on every FCA approved non protection fund investments wherever the are.
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bg
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Post by bg on Aug 19, 2018 9:58:25 GMT
When you have a market so filled with 1% discounts and things don't move (certainly not for the loan parts I am selling and a lot are at 1% discount already), your claims of normal market conditions or flippable as in 2017 are not believable to me. I have never made any such claims. Please stop continuously putting words in my mouth - a blatant breach of forum rules. No it is not. My figures are by value which are now snapped and calculated automatically every 15 minutes (and accurate to 1dp). Anyone can independently verify this if they download the loan book as opposed to plucking numbers out of thin air. Please stop quoting untruths to try and support your argument. If the international definition of what a NPL is a fantasy measure then I guess you are the only person in the world not living in a fantasy land. Think about that.
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Godanubis
Member of DD Central
Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
Posts: 2,011
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Post by Godanubis on Aug 19, 2018 10:02:59 GMT
Now that just simply isn't true. The market is still trading. I have sold £33k in the last 5 days and £70k this month. There has been a noticeable pickup since 14 Aug. Admittedly I don't invest in every single loan but use basic common sense when assessing each one (which takes about 20-30 secs) and probably hit about 1 in 3. It is also incorrect to say that over 40% of the portfolio is in NPL's. Loans that are 3 months or longer late represent 28.7% of the portfolio. Given the nature of the loans (bridge/dev) a better classification to use would be loans later than 6 months in my opinion which stands at 14.5%. These figures lower than other comparable platforms (L or MT for example). When you have a market so filled with 1% discounts and things don't move (certainly not for the loan parts I am selling and a lot are at 1% discount already), your claims of normal market conditions or flippable as in 2017 are not believable to me. The over 40% NPL in the FS portfolio is by value. Given the loans should be serviced by the end of their normal life with interest, you have to report NPL within 30 days of this not happening (not 90 or 180 days or other fantasy measures). In any case, even if you consider 28.7% being NP and the rest just 'late', these are astoninshingly bad numbers. And I definitely cannot care less if another rubbish platform like Lendy reports similar numbers. At very least Lendy realised the problem long time ago and put down a team of EXPERT recovery people to work and they are doing something in the right direction now (albeit too slowly). FS is continuing doing nothing! And even if they found more lenders' money (institutionals?), my investments will get out of this sinking ship ASAP. Lendy is the Ex girlfriend you can’t get rid of they rarely default allowing offset you don’t get interest when selling I,ve tens of thousands sitting doing nothing but accruing large bonuses. There are very few paybacks in last few months and loans are just continued with no opportunity to disinvest.
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rocky1
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Post by rocky1 on Aug 19, 2018 10:09:57 GMT
enjoying reading so far but this thread is coming close to getting pulled for breaking rules of 1 stating false information 2 false and accusatory statements.keep it clean and no punching below the belt.my mistake thought i was on another p2p forum.
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Godanubis
Member of DD Central
Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
Posts: 2,011
Likes: 1,013
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Post by Godanubis on Aug 19, 2018 10:17:46 GMT
Again again again demonstrate an actual overall loss not just a perceived “Brexit “ style prediction !!!
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bg
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Post by bg on Aug 19, 2018 10:18:53 GMT
Now that just simply isn't true. bg, read back your sentence and quote of mine. This is what you wrote. If you don't intend what you write is a problem with yourself. In any case and whatever measure you wish to apply, the conclusion is that the CURRENT LEVEL of NPL, even with your data and definitions (i.e. the 28.7% you reported as nonperforming, on top of all the simply 'late' loans) shows an astoninshingly bad picture. At any level you consider it, this gives a huge risk of non-sufficient recoveries and/or losses to lenders, as already happening with many FS loans. Whatever the FS fans/connected people try to do to get more money in their net for their short term profit (and other lenders' loss) is honestly disgusting. As I said, stop putting word in my mouth. I also do not appreciate your constant implications that I am somehow connected to FS on the basis that I would like this discussion to be based on facts. You can not continuously quote incorrect facts and statistics and when challenged just say in any case it doesn't matter because it's a bad picture whichever way you look at it. It does matter and in my opinion is both a breach of forum rules and potentially libellous.
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Godanubis
Member of DD Central
Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
Posts: 2,011
Likes: 1,013
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Post by Godanubis on Aug 19, 2018 10:28:10 GMT
bg, read back your sentence and quote of mine. This is what you wrote. If you don't intend what you write is a problem with yourself. In any case and whatever measure you wish to apply, the conclusion is that the CURRENT LEVEL of NPL, even with your data and definitions (i.e. the 28.7% you reported as nonperforming, on top of all the simply 'late' loans) shows an astoninshingly bad picture. At any level you consider it, this gives a huge risk of non-sufficient recoveries and/or losses to lenders, as already happening with many FS loans. Whatever the FS fans/connected people try to do to get more money in their net for their short term profit (and other lenders' loss) is honestly disgusting. As I said, stop putting word in my mouth. I also do not appreciate your constant implications that I am somehow connected to FS on the basis that I would like this discussion to be based on facts. You can not continuously quote incorrect facts and statistics and when challenged just say in any case it doesn't matter because it's a bad picture whichever way you look at it. It does matter and in my opinion is both a breach of forum rules and potentially libellous. Without mentioning names I wonder what associations some people have with other peer-to-peer platforms that they are trying to discredit FS and are very vocal Exaggerating the negatives. Still nobody showing overall loss Because if you invest properly you will not have an overall loss just a reduction in the return. There are only overall losses on very rare loans when taken in isolation not as part of Diversified portfolio
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Aug 19, 2018 10:50:58 GMT
I think this may be correct in terms of actual crystallised loans as of today - as to where we will be in 12 months will be very interesting and I suspect there may possibly be a few more mega losses then e.g. speedboats, Lytham St Annes, Suffolk snow dome etc etc
As I have said before the pawn model of lending for property developments etc at 20% has still to be proven.
I remember people gushing with enthusiasm about Enron - well that one went well didn't it...
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Godanubis
Member of DD Central
Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
Posts: 2,011
Likes: 1,013
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Post by Godanubis on Aug 19, 2018 11:05:52 GMT
I think this may be correct in terms of actual crystallised loans as of today - as to where we will be in 12 months will be very interesting and I suspect there may possibly be a few more mega losses then e.g. speedboats, Lytham St Annes, Suffolk snow dome etc etc As I have said before the pawn model of lending for property developments etc at 20% has still to be proven. I remember people gushing with enthusiasm about Enron - well that one went well didn't it... Again all these loans either under recovery or have made small capital loss. Collectively there may be huge losses but highly unlikely to be >30% of capital so invested properly individual losses should be miminal ie 30% of 1% of your total capital for each if you were unlucky enough to hold them all. Given Average loanbook is about 12.8% return this should give a loss of interest which is tiny . On £10000 invested at say 13% you get £1300 in interest the loss in one part is £30 so result 12.7% not too shabby. Even 100% loss in 5 still gives an 8% return which is either tax free or losses can be offset
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11025
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Post by 11025 on Aug 19, 2018 11:12:13 GMT
I think this may be correct in terms of actual crystallised loans as of today - as to where we will be in 12 months will be very interesting and I suspect there may possibly be a few more mega losses then e.g. speedboats, Lytham St Annes, Suffolk snow dome etc etc As I have said before the pawn model of lending for property developments etc at 20% has still to be proven. I remember people gushing with enthusiasm about Enron - well that one went well didn't it... Oh yes  
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Imothep
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Post by Imothep on Aug 19, 2018 12:58:26 GMT
Again all these loans either under recovery or have made small capital loss. Collectively there may be huge losses but highly unlikely to be >30% of capital so invested properly individual losses should be miminal ie 30% of 1% of your total capital for each if you were unlucky enough to hold them all. Given Average loanbook is about 12.8% return this should give a loss of interest which is tiny . On £10000 invested at say 13% you get £1300 in interest the loss in one part is £30 so result 12.7% not too shabby. Even 100% loss in 5 still gives an 8% return which is either tax free or losses can be offset Continue repeating FALSE DATA and autoliking yourself. People are not stupid and understand that when a company has 40+% of its book DAMAGED AND/OR NON PAYING BACK (and no real strategy to recover from those failures) however they invest, they are doomed. People like you only attempt to convince more unaware lenders to invest so that the game can continue to be able to sell your loans (thing you cannot do now...) and get out of the bad loans... Shame on anyone saying people will definitely make a gain from this DISASTER loan book portfolio and company. more cap locks we can’t hear you lol, you’ve def got a hard on for FS that’s for sure, i’m not sure you are being entirely impartial either , shame on anyone saying people are def doomed if they invest as well. I’m sure plenty of people have made a decent return as well in the past and will do in the future. I’ve said it before that i understood this forum was for dd and sharing ideas , not just hate campaigns and no i don’t work for FS and an savvy enough to appreciate that they could do better. maybe the mods should take a look at some of your posts as well.
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Post by brightspark on Aug 19, 2018 13:10:32 GMT
Perhaps we all need to move on and look forward rather than backward. What's done is done and cannot be changed.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Aug 19, 2018 13:11:19 GMT
no need for that sort of language especially for a genuine concern which most of us think
is blatantly true.
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Imothep
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Post by Imothep on Aug 19, 2018 13:14:13 GMT
no need for that sort of language especually for a genuine concern which most of us think is blatantly true. what language ? english ? some of you, not most of us , you don’t speak for us, you speak for you ...
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Aug 19, 2018 13:49:57 GMT
Many of the most problematic loans are also the bigger ones...
as a born-again slaphead : If we take
£100K with 20% capital losses which I think is generous (doubtless some lenders already have had such losses).
Then we have £80K at 12% (generous) = £80K +10K = £90K = overall £10K (10%) loss
Even is we take 10% capital losses that is £90K +11K = £101K = overall £1K (1%) profit
if we take 5% capital loss (no chance) that is £95 +11.4K = £106.4K = overall £6.4K (6.4%) profit which is quite acceptable - if it happens at the end of the day
Can somebody buy a load with bonuses and sell prior to term at minimal cost - maybe in the past but I don't think so now. Whatever I still don't see how any such sale can make 23% or am I being thick?
(Yes I know losses are tax deductible for some of us but to keep things simple)
And there is the lag effect which in some cases is going to be over 2 years...
As somebody qualified in this area said over 10% NPL is a disaster and I suspect the FS total will be much higher!
I appreciate all these posts stating how fantastic the FS return is as it has made me think and realise it is even worse then I thought - I am not replying to any more of these ridicuous posts.
If myself and numerous others have misplaced concerns then we will soon be proven wrong - this is not a forum to praise nor decry FS but to discuss genuine concerns and other issues whether positive or negative.
I thank you
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