coop
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Post by coop on Aug 14, 2018 14:58:48 GMT
Your stats (which I have no time to check in detail) indicate that over 30% of the current loans is NPL. (my feeling is that by value FS are even higher than that) A bank would get a run-down by customers with anything even a third of that. It is a totally unsustainable model. Anything above 10% NPL indicate a total DISASTER and complete mismanagement of affairs. It's a very unfair way of looking at things...just ignore everything that has been repaid. He has... the 30% figure is just the late loans/active loans....
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bg
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Post by bg on Aug 14, 2018 14:59:55 GMT
It's a very unfair way of looking at things...just ignore everything that has been repaid. He has... the 30% figure is just the late loans/active loans.... Yes, by that logic...if FS just defaulted every single late loan and wrote off the loan then they would have 0% NPL!
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coop
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Post by coop on Aug 14, 2018 15:02:30 GMT
Also to me the most worrying thing is that out of ALL lending the have ever done (£266m) over 16% of this is either overdue, lost or pending recovery (£43m total). So for every 100p invested in FS 16p is missing! Not to mention that it's actually probably far worse than that; I for one don't have time to weed out all the dozens (hundreds?) of renewals on the loan book; I would take a best guess at their only being in the region of £200m of 'original' loans which would make that well over 20% overdue, lost or pending
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coop
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Post by coop on Aug 14, 2018 15:05:18 GMT
He has... the 30% figure is just the late loans/active loans.... Yes, by that logic...if FS just defaulted every single late loan and wrote off the loan then they would have 0% NPL! I don't think you are understanding this. If we are calling all loans which haven't been repaid or defaulted as "live" then as you say there are 494 live loans of which 150 are late, i.e 30% - what's unfair or incorrect about that? And yes by that logic they could have 0% NPL but would have much higher defaults... so what's you're point?
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jcm9000
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Post by jcm9000 on Aug 14, 2018 15:13:29 GMT
It is interesting. I'm running mine down (as of recently) thanks to being well caught up in Col so need funds from somewhere....Out of 46 loans (max loans i had i think was approx 60), only 6 are not late, 8 are unredeemed, 19 are > 6 months late (over 365 days active) late with the rest merrily bobbing along. I'll keep an eye on things for futre re-investment, but some of the stuff I have seen recently does concern me like the piling comments... I've had a steady stream of repayments which I like, but it is coming dangerously close to my unredeemed loans being > than my total interest earned over the life of my portfolio. Time will, of course, tell. I note from the all loans history, 53 are unredeemed vs 2,302 loans which is purely on that number 2.3%, which seems ok, pending pondering the late loans.
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bg
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Post by bg on Aug 14, 2018 15:13:57 GMT
Yes, by that logic...if FS just defaulted every single late loan and wrote off the loan then they would have 0% NPL! I don't think you are understanding this. If we are calling all loans which haven't been repaid or defaulted as "live" then as you say there are 494 live loans of which 150 are late, i.e 30% - what's unfair or incorrect about that? And yes by that logic they could have 0% NPL but would have much higher defaults... so what's you're point? I think its unfair because you could have a platform that has issued 10,000 loans that have all repaid but by this metric if they have 2 live loans of which one is overdue then you would say it's shocking as half the loan book is non performing. You can't just ignore all the successful, repaid loans. The vast majority of loans that are late are under 6 months late - that is pretty standard for the industry. Even in a bank (who are much more conservative in their lending) you would expect over half of loans to run past term. But lets be fair.....what's the equivalent number on other platforms? MT or L over 50% I would guess. Even AC have over 10% of live loans suspended and others past term.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 14, 2018 15:17:33 GMT
I have some stats too.
88 loans in current investment. 128 completed and repaid, 3 unredeemed (some with partial recovery or recovery ongoing).
Earnings to date (from completed loans): 8.27% since October 2016, investment fund has been increased to 14x since start.
0 losses yet.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 14, 2018 15:40:19 GMT
Stourbridge - Renewal (2973262607)
We have spoken directly to the lender who is providing the refinance for this loan and have confirmed the application is still progressing and on course to be complete before this loan is due for repayment
Along with at least two loans repaying today, this update on a third is to me yet more (fledgling) indication that things might be on the up. Very early days but I hope we might look back to August and say "...this is when they turned the corner...".
I'm all in favour of telling it as it is but not as part of a self fulfilling prophecy but as part of an accurate description. Hence why I certainly _hope_ they have turned the corner. Whether or not they have remains to be seen.
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bg
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Post by bg on Aug 14, 2018 15:50:26 GMT
I think its unfair because you could have a platform that has issued 10,000 loans that have all repaid but by this metric if they have 2 live loans of which one is overdue then you would say it's shocking as half the loan book is non performing. You can't just ignore all the successful, repaid loans. The vast majority of loans that are late are under 6 months late - that is pretty standard for the industry. Even in a bank (who are much more conservative in their lending) you would expect over half of loans to run past term.
But lets be fair.....what's the equivalent number on other platforms? MT or L over 50% I would guess. Even AC have over 10% of live loans suspended and others past term. Don't even try to get into a terrain you certainly don't know. I invest day in day out in the stock market and NPL have been the single biggest problem in multiple countries for the last 5-6 years. It is the almost exclusive parameter used to judge the company health and DEFINITELY NO BANK in the whole western world can aim to have anything above 10% NPLs. Nope, I only worked in that sector for 20 years...but what do I know compared to someone who invests in the stock market. I can tell that no bank considers a loan that is 1 day late non-performing. The Basel/IMF definition is that a loan is non-performing when it is over 90 days late. I can also tell you that the majority of bank loans are not very high risk/high rate speculative development/bridging loans which makes up the majority of FS's loan book. Indeed the borrowers on FS have likely been turned down by the banks and other lenders..hence they are looking to borrow at 20-25% pa from FS. I did not claim that banks have over 10% NPL's...i said that over half of bridging/dev loans in a typical bank will run over term (although many banks have dramatically reduced their amount of business in this area in the last few years). I'm not going to go over and over these points. But I think its worth mentioning my stats are now out of date given Development in Warminster just repaid (12 days late). This means that the live loans has gone down by 1 but it wasn't non-performing so the NPL % has now gone up...what a shocking development..someone should take FS to task over it.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Aug 14, 2018 16:38:51 GMT
Very interesting post above from somebody who knows the business - are you saying in a nutshell the current level of late/defaulted loans is non-substainable and FS need to sort this out as an urgent priority?
I thank you.
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empirica
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Post by empirica on Aug 14, 2018 16:52:00 GMT
Very interesting post above from somebody who knows the business - are you saying in a nutshell the current level of late/defaulted loans is non-substainable and FS need to sort this out as an urgent priority? I thank you. Precisely which post are you referring to?
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Aug 14, 2018 17:20:43 GMT
to what post was I referring
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Imothep
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Post by Imothep on Aug 14, 2018 19:43:58 GMT
Don't even try to get into a terrain you certainly don't know. I invest day in day out in the stock market and NPL have been the single biggest problem in multiple countries for the last 5-6 years. It is the almost exclusive parameter used to judge the company health and DEFINITELY NO BANK in the whole western world can aim to have anything above 10% NPLs. Nope, I only worked in that sector for 20 years...but what do I know compared to someone who invests in the stock market. I can tell that no bank considers a loan that is 1 day late non-performing. The Basel/IMF definition is that a loan is non-performing when it is over 90 days late. I can also tell you that the majority of bank loans are not very high risk/high rate speculative development/bridging loans which makes up the majority of FS's loan book. Indeed the borrowers on FS have likely been turned down by the banks and other lenders..hence they are looking to borrow at 20-25% pa from FS. I did not claim that banks have over 10% NPL's...i said that over half of bridging/dev loans in a typical bank will run over term (although many banks have dramatically reduced their amount of business in this area in the last few years). I'm not going to go over and over these points. But I think its worth mentioning my stats are now out of date given Development in Warminster just repaid (12 days late). This means that the live loans has gone down by 1 but it wasn't non-performing so the NPL % has now gone up...what a shocking development..someone should take FS to task over it. BG , your post makes a lot of sense , one point , many of the borrowers have likely been turned down by banks, yes, many maybe but not all, P2P works well as a mez top up for established smaller developers and portfolio builders . The perfect example is a BTL high value purchase , bought well and under value (yes the still exist ) , off market or at auction , you can re gear for 6 months, CML rules , so 2nd charge, quick red book, borrow your refurb money , planning gain, re gear with primary lender at end and retain or knock it out. It’s not for a 20 house dev as you can get dev finance much cheaper but it has its uses as a product for low risk established developers as well , not just the numpties ..
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Post by dan1 on Aug 14, 2018 20:05:32 GMT
Nope, I only worked in that sector for 20 years...but what do I know compared to someone who invests in the stock market. I can tell that no bank considers a loan that is 1 day late non-performing. The Basel/IMF definition is that a loan is non-performing when it is over 90 days late. I can also tell you that the majority of bank loans are not very high risk/high rate speculative development/bridging loans which makes up the majority of FS's loan book. Indeed the borrowers on FS have likely been turned down by the banks and other lenders..hence they are looking to borrow at 20-25% pa from FS. I did not claim that banks have over 10% NPL's...i said that over half of bridging/dev loans in a typical bank will run over term (although many banks have dramatically reduced their amount of business in this area in the last few years). I'm not going to go over and over these points. But I think its worth mentioning my stats are now out of date given Development in Warminster just repaid (12 days late). This means that the live loans has gone down by 1 but it wasn't non-performing so the NPL % has now gone up...what a shocking development..someone should take FS to task over it. BG , your post makes a lot of sense , one point , many of the borrowers have likely been turned down by banks, yes, many maybe but not all, P2P works well as a mez top up for established smaller developers and portfolio builders . The perfect example is a BTL high value purchase , bought well and under value (yes the still exist ) , off market or at auction , you can re gear for 6 months, CML rules , so 2nd charge, quick red book, borrow your refurb money , planning gain, re gear with primary lender at end and retain or knock it out. It’s not for a 20 house dev as you can get dev finance much cheaper but it has its uses as a product for low risk established developers as well , not just the numpties .. Always interesting trying to interpret your posts Imothep but I assume you meant: "...you can not re gear for 6 months, CML rules..." ? For those unaware of the CML 6 month rule... www.tsplegal.com/general/6-month-rule-on-selling-or-mortgaging-your-property
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Post by beepbeepimajeep on Aug 14, 2018 20:30:52 GMT
Residential Property in Cardiff Bay has completed today. Before this sudden change in direction towards actually trying to get loans to repay by Funding Secure this was almost 1 year overdue. Whatever the reason, be it simply a change in business model or the hiring of a compliance manager, I am impressed with what has been done in the last few weeks. Fair play.
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