technik
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Post by technik on Oct 15, 2018 10:39:02 GMT
Thanks dan1, this is super, and possibly worthy of it's own thread entirely tbh! Such good efforts, so appreciate it and so do others I'm sure. One thing I was wondering that is closely related is how the valuations correlate with the price reached. But thinking more about that might ask that separately, because wouldn't be fair just to look at those that capital has been lost on. Thinking out loud now rather than asking for this... thought a bit about the ongoing capital losses from those loans that are being part paid back (railwayana comes to mind), where recoveries are being made but compared to original valuations we can already see capital losses are being made but not yet crystallised until all sold and loan complete. Might not be worth bothering with as most loans are single asset and pretty time-consuming to go through matching sales against listed valuations. |
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Oct 15, 2018 12:02:05 GMT
dan1 NI Turbine loan £1m: Payments Loan active for 588 days Capital repaid £304,570.98 Interest Paid £0.00 Actual Return -69.5% pa
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mjc
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Post by mjc on Oct 15, 2018 12:06:18 GMT
That’s an amazing piece of work. Thanks. I’m not in any of those loans listed, Yet. I’m certain several on my locked into will appear on later versions.
If total loans are £288m and losses so far are <£1m isn’t there a good business model for a provision fund to reduce severe losses? Not for interest, nor all capital, but to reduce the risk of severe loss ‘in normal times’?
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Oct 15, 2018 12:07:32 GMT
dan1 NI Turbine loan £1m: Payments Loan active for 588 days Capital repaid £304,570.98 Interest Paid £0.00 Actual Return -69.5% pa has added in the small further recovery that was paid out, but FS didn't credit it to accounts as "Capital Repaid". Instead, it just appeared as a "Credit to your account" on 18/7/18, so everyone's Tax Statements will be incorrect. I suspect it hasn't been netted off the FS total losses figure either.
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technik
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Post by technik on Oct 15, 2018 12:57:58 GMT
has added in the small further recovery that was paid out, but FS didn't credit it to accounts as "Capital Repaid". Instead, it just appeared as a "Credit to your account" on 18/7/18, so everyone's Tax Statements will be incorrect. I suspect it hasn't been netted off the FS total losses figure either. I realise a forum has greater numbers of people compared to a platform's staff to pick over data and work things out, but does slightly amaze me that people here with limited access and time are able to do a better job at checking data and processes than those that are working with it for real. Thank goodness a lot of the data is accessible! And especially thank you to those able to do it.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Oct 15, 2018 15:39:03 GMT
yes BUT losses this time next year are going to me a lot more than £1m - if we take £28M late and a recovery rate of 50% that is £14m! If we take 75% recovery rate that is still £7m
so maybe FS may care to reflect upon how they present their data and people such as above who provide this lovely data clearly aren't stupid!
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arby
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Post by arby on Oct 15, 2018 16:03:27 GMT
yes BUT losses this time next year are going to me a lot more than £1m - if we take £28M late and a recovery rate of 50% that is £14m! If we take 75% recovery rate that is still £7m so maybe FS may care to reflect upon how they present their data and people such as above who provide this lovely data clearly aren't stupid! So assuming only 50% recovery, one would break even if invested in every loan with zero due diligence. That's a pretty good starting point as any excess return is down to us. A recovery rate above 50% would push this higher. As I've said many times, and you're alluding to, all this analysis of loan data is largely meaningless (but interesting); it all comes down to the recovery performance
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Oct 15, 2018 17:13:30 GMT
0% return in my book is not ideal! And the above assumes the non-defaulted funds are invested until the delayed ones are recovered. Considering we already have 2 x 100% losses and some real belters such as NI turbine then I wonder what the final recovery rate will be - will be interesting to see where we are in a year's time.
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mjc
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Post by mjc on Oct 15, 2018 17:13:54 GMT
yes BUT losses this time next year are going to me a lot more than £1m - if we take £28M late and a recovery rate of 50% that is £14m! If we take 75% recovery rate that is still £7m so maybe FS may care to reflect upon how they present their data and people such as above who provide this lovely data clearly aren't stupid! So assuming only 50% recovery, one would break even if invested in every loan with zero due diligence. That's a pretty good starting point as any excess return is down to us. A recovery rate above 50% would push this higher. As I've said many times, and you're alluding to, all this analysis of loan data is largely meaningless (but interesting); it all comes down to the recovery performance I’m raising this as a topic for discussion, we shouldn’t be in this game if we’re adverse to something of a rollercoaster. So would we like an option to select higher rates with no protection, or a lower rate with a partial provision for the most egregious losses, probably substantially down to the platform’s shortcomings? The £28m late won’t all be bad, and IF a 50% recovery, and a target to limit any capital loss to say 10%, the reduction of rate would be modest. Perhaps 3-6% off the usual 13% offering. But only as an option. Proplend do something like this with Tranche A,B, and C. The 100% wipeout prospect of some ‘ranks behind’ is a strong disincentive to me, at least. So far as “breaking even with zero DD”, if only FS had suggested this was an outcome, I’d have saved a lot of time, risk and not still have a few £10s of k locked into FS NPLs, in favour of other platforms I’m happy with, and have far more in now. Some sort of provision fund might make me return to FS.
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arby
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Post by arby on Oct 15, 2018 17:23:35 GMT
So assuming only 50% recovery, one would break even if invested in every loan with zero due diligence. That's a pretty good starting point as any excess return is down to us. A recovery rate above 50% would push this higher. As I've said many times, and you're alluding to, all this analysis of loan data is largely meaningless (but interesting); it all comes down to the recovery performance I’m raising this as a topic for discussion, we shouldn’t be in this game if we’re adverse to something of a rollercoaster. So would we like an option to select higher rates with no protection, or a lower rate with a partial provision for the most egregious losses, probably substantially down to the platform’s shortcomings? The £28m late won’t all be bad, and IF a 50% recovery, and a target to limit any capital loss to say 10%, the reduction of rate would be modest. Perhaps 3-6% off the usual 13% offering. But only as an option. Proplend do something like this with Tranche A,B, and C. The 100% wipeout prospect of some ‘ranks behind’ is a strong disincentive to me, at least. So far as “breaking even with zero DD”, if only FS had suggested this was an outcome, I’d have saved a lot of time, risk and not still have a few £10s of k locked into FS NPLs, in favour of other platforms I’m happy with, and have far more in now. Some sort of provision fund might make me return to FS. <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.860000000000127px; height: 9.639999999999986px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_24382437" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.86px; height: 9.64px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1133px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_8850086" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.86px; height: 9.64px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 417px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_77378464" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.86px; height: 9.64px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1133px; top: 417px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_21840804" scrolling="no"></iframe> I strongly disagree with a provision fund on FS. There are other sites for that. A provision fund will be paid for by all of us, but only utilised by losses on loans that my DD should ensure I'm not even part of (but in reality I probably will be), so my rate of return will be reduced to pay for a provision fund by the poor quality of loans that I chose not to invest in.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Oct 15, 2018 17:48:28 GMT
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Post by dan1 on Oct 15, 2018 19:34:48 GMT
has added in the small further recovery that was paid out, but FS didn't credit it to accounts as "Capital Repaid". Instead, it just appeared as a "Credit to your account" on 18/7/18, so everyone's Tax Statements will be incorrect. I suspect it hasn't been netted off the FS total losses figure either. I realise a forum has greater numbers of people compared to a platform's staff to pick over data and work things out, but does slightly amaze me that people here with limited access and time are able to do a better job at checking data and processes than those that are working with it for real. Thank goodness a lot of the data is accessible! And especially thank you to those able to do it. thanks - the figures you quote are those listed on the loan details and are a snapshot when the loan is completed. Additional recoveries made past the completed date are listed in the General Information or Loan Updates tabs but the overall figures are not updated. What I did was to re-run the figures including the additional recoveries hence the discrepancy you picked up. technik - to be fair to FS, I think these figures are just snapshots, as I outlined above. It should be possible to generate all of the figures on the loan statistics page from the All active and past loans page but this isn't possible. Some loans are not listed, for example 2675937069 and 6569367423 are missing and most likely others because my calculated Total amount lent to date is several million below that on the loan statistics page. I suspect/hope it's a case of errors on the site.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 15, 2018 19:48:37 GMT
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Oct 15, 2018 21:00:29 GMT
Assume that all loans are 12% and no interest is earned on defaulting loans. I calculate the return to be as follows for various weighted average default rates and weighted average recovery rates. Happy to be corrected if wrong. Figures in bold show a positive return, others show a loss. 1 = 100% return  |
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coop
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Post by coop on Oct 23, 2018 11:26:29 GMT
Capital LossesThe table below lists the capital losses from loans marked as Completed. The data has been extracted from the individual loan listings except where additional recoveries have been achieved as documented in the footnotes (the return has been increased accordingly). The lost capital to date stands at £1,003,074. The figure provided on the Loan Statistics page of £948,754 was last updated for September and does not yet include the capital losses from the disposal of the Neath Property. | Reference | Title | Rate | Loan | LTV | Repaid | Lost | Return | Bonus | End Date | Completed | Late | | 572782847 | Two Rings | 13% | £2,200 | 69.84% | £1,688 | £512 | -23.3% | No | 12 Nov 14 | 16 Feb 15 | 96 | | 654474218 | Lubin Paintings | 13% | £13,000 | 40.63% | 1£9,100 | £3,900 | -30.0% | No | 26 Nov 14 | 14 May 15 | 169 | | 2002084876 | Lubin Paintings | 13% | £20,000 | 66.67% | £14,000 | £6,000 | -30.0% | No | 31 Aug 15 | 15 Sep 15 | 15 | | 1922610905 | Scottish Boatyard | 13% | £250,000 | 62.50% | £216,441 | £33,559 | -13.4% | No | 15 Jan 16 | 18 Aug 17 | 581 | | 6742133163 | Wind Turbine | 12% | £1,000,000 | 63.86% | 2£319,036 | £680,964 | -68.1% | No | 23 Aug 16 | 2 Oct 17 | 405 | | 1355651457 | Name plate and Trains | 13% | £8,000 | 228.58% | £2,000 | £6,000 | -75.0% | No | 2 Mar 17 | 17 Jul 18 | 502 | | 3867743062 | Knaresborough - 2nd | 16% | £100,000 | 63.00% | | £100,000 | -100.0% | No | 3 Mar 17 | 16 Aug 18 | 531 | | 1411851665 | Railwayana 3 - Partial Rep. | 13% | £3,943 | 58.42% | £2,000 | £1,944 | -49.3% | No | 11 Mar 17 | 16 Jul 18 | 492 | | 2286673307 | Railwayana 5 - Renewal | 13% | £3,100 | 51.67% | £1,300 | £1,800 | -58.1% | No | 30 Apr 17 | 16 Jul 18 | 442 | | 5257926445 | The Lodge | 13% | £190,000 | 69.09% | 3£141,400 | £48,600 | -25.6% | Yes | 14 Jul 17 | 16 Apr 18 | 276 | | 3057909038 | The Riding School | 13% | £238,500 | 68.14% | 4£177,400 | £61,100 | -25.6% | Yes | 14 Jul 17 | 16 Apr 18 | 276 | | 2027812507 | Neath Property | 13% | £116,000 | 70.30% | £75,305 | £40,695 | -35.1% | Yes | 19 Sep 17 | 12 Oct 18 | 388 | | 2125032158 | Peter Howson Painting | 10% | £10,000 | 33.33% | £5,625 | £4,375 | -43.7% | No | 26 Sep 17 | 11 Apr 18 | 197 | | 1291079105 | Neath Property - Supp. | 13% | £10,000 | 70.00% | | £10,000 | -100.0% | No | 12 Oct 17 | 12 Oct 18 | 365
| 3046618699
| Collection of Rings - Renewal
| 12% | £8,000 | 61.54%
| £4,775
| £3,225 | -40.3%
| No | 17 Jun 18 | 22 Oct 18 | 127 | 2127087124
| Diamond Earrings - Renewal
| 12% | £3,000 | 60.00%
| £2,600
| £400 | -13.3%
| No | 17 Jun 18
| 22 Oct 18
| 127 |
Please let me know of any errors or omissions, in particular my derivation of the additional return for the Wind Turbine, see footnote 2.
1 20 Apr 15: "The total sale proceeds amount to £1,880. All active investors will shortly receive a capital repayment in proportion to the amount invested." 2 18 Jul 18: "A further (small) amount has been recovered and will be distributed shortly." - £14,465.27 (derived from the Loan Statistics lost capital of £948,754 minus the sum of lost capital excluding the Neath Property). Represents an additional 1.45%, which is almost consistent with the reported 1.5%, see here. 3 7 Jun 18: "A further amount of £3,900 has now been recovered - representing approximately an additional 2.1% return of capital, which will shortly be distributed to all investors accounts proportionately." 4 7 Jun 18: "A further amount of £4,900 has now been recovered - representing approximately an additional 2.1% return of capital, which will shortly be distributed to all investors accounts proportionately." Somewhere in the depths of time there was some Aboriginal Art, pretty sure that made a capital loss? Edit: I found this which I had forgotten about! IN the context of their future failings this is now quite funny... " 09/5/15 UPDATE Unfortunately due to an error on our part, the paintings were sold without a reserve. As this was our error, we are completing the loan with capital and interest in full, with FundingSecure funding the shortage. As a result you will receive a return as follows: Capital Returned: 100% Interest Returned: 100% Effective return: 13% pa" Don't hold your breath before you see that again!!!
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