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Post by dan1 on Oct 23, 2018 11:32:45 GMT
Capital LossesThe table below lists the capital losses from loans marked as Completed. The data has been extracted from the individual loan listings except where additional recoveries have been achieved as documented in the footnotes (the return has been increased accordingly). The lost capital to date stands at £1,003,074. The figure provided on the Loan Statistics page of £948,754 was last updated for September and does not yet include the capital losses from the disposal of the Neath Property. | Reference | Title | Rate | Loan | LTV | Repaid | Lost | Return | Bonus | End Date | Completed | Late | | 572782847 | Two Rings | 13% | £2,200 | 69.84% | £1,688 | £512 | -23.3% | No | 12 Nov 14 | 16 Feb 15 | 96 | | 654474218 | Lubin Paintings | 13% | £13,000 | 40.63% | 1£9,100 | £3,900 | -30.0% | No | 26 Nov 14 | 14 May 15 | 169 | | 2002084876 | Lubin Paintings | 13% | £20,000 | 66.67% | £14,000 | £6,000 | -30.0% | No | 31 Aug 15 | 15 Sep 15 | 15 | | 1922610905 | Scottish Boatyard | 13% | £250,000 | 62.50% | £216,441 | £33,559 | -13.4% | No | 15 Jan 16 | 18 Aug 17 | 581 | | 6742133163 | Wind Turbine | 12% | £1,000,000 | 63.86% | 2£319,036 | £680,964 | -68.1% | No | 23 Aug 16 | 2 Oct 17 | 405 | | 1355651457 | Name plate and Trains | 13% | £8,000 | 228.58% | £2,000 | £6,000 | -75.0% | No | 2 Mar 17 | 17 Jul 18 | 502 | | 3867743062 | Knaresborough - 2nd | 16% | £100,000 | 63.00% | | £100,000 | -100.0% | No | 3 Mar 17 | 16 Aug 18 | 531 | | 1411851665 | Railwayana 3 - Partial Rep. | 13% | £3,943 | 58.42% | £2,000 | £1,944 | -49.3% | No | 11 Mar 17 | 16 Jul 18 | 492 | | 2286673307 | Railwayana 5 - Renewal | 13% | £3,100 | 51.67% | £1,300 | £1,800 | -58.1% | No | 30 Apr 17 | 16 Jul 18 | 442 | | 5257926445 | The Lodge | 13% | £190,000 | 69.09% | 3£141,400 | £48,600 | -25.6% | Yes | 14 Jul 17 | 16 Apr 18 | 276 | | 3057909038 | The Riding School | 13% | £238,500 | 68.14% | 4£177,400 | £61,100 | -25.6% | Yes | 14 Jul 17 | 16 Apr 18 | 276 | | 2027812507 | Neath Property | 13% | £116,000 | 70.30% | £75,305 | £40,695 | -35.1% | Yes | 19 Sep 17 | 12 Oct 18 | 388 | | 2125032158 | Peter Howson Painting | 10% | £10,000 | 33.33% | £5,625 | £4,375 | -43.7% | No | 26 Sep 17 | 11 Apr 18 | 197 | | 1291079105 | Neath Property - Supp. | 13% | £10,000 | 70.00% | | £10,000 | -100.0% | No | 12 Oct 17 | 12 Oct 18 | 365
| 3046618699
| Collection of Rings - Renewal
| 12% | £8,000 | 61.54%
| £4,775
| £3,225 | -40.3%
| No | 17 Jun 18 | 22 Oct 18 | 127 | 2127087124
| Diamond Earrings - Renewal
| 12% | £3,000 | 60.00%
| £2,600
| £400 | -13.3%
| No | 17 Jun 18
| 22 Oct 18
| 127 |
Please let me know of any errors or omissions, in particular my derivation of the additional return for the Wind Turbine, see footnote 2.
1 20 Apr 15: "The total sale proceeds amount to £1,880. All active investors will shortly receive a capital repayment in proportion to the amount invested." 2 18 Jul 18: "A further (small) amount has been recovered and will be distributed shortly." - £14,465.27 (derived from the Loan Statistics lost capital of £948,754 minus the sum of lost capital excluding the Neath Property). Represents an additional 1.45%, which is almost consistent with the reported 1.5%, see here. 3 7 Jun 18: "A further amount of £3,900 has now been recovered - representing approximately an additional 2.1% return of capital, which will shortly be distributed to all investors accounts proportionately." 4 7 Jun 18: "A further amount of £4,900 has now been recovered - representing approximately an additional 2.1% return of capital, which will shortly be distributed to all investors accounts proportionately." Somewhere in the depths of time there was some Aboriginal Art, pretty sure that made a capital loss? A quick search yields... www.fundingsecure.com/myaccount/loan/1147632469Fabulous return given it lasted 7 days (min 30 days interest kicked in)! ...or possibly... www.fundingsecure.com/myaccount/loan/869659053... in which FS paid in full after they entered the items into an auction without reserve. ?
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coop
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Post by coop on Oct 23, 2018 11:41:00 GMT
I shall never doubt you again!
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Post by dan1 on Oct 23, 2018 11:48:10 GMT
I shall never doubt you again! Please keep prompting me for omissions like that because not all loans are listed on the All active and past loans page but I've no idea which ones are missing. Anyone fancy an exhaustive search based on a ten digit listing URL? And, yes, I realise there were several loans previously that didn't comply with this format.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Oct 24, 2018 10:20:48 GMT
excellent work above - well done !
funny how FS don' display such useful and significative data...I am continuing to run down my portfolio!
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Post by dan1 on Nov 10, 2018 23:35:49 GMT
The following charts show the monthly totals for loans activated (solid blue), loans completed (red line) and loans cancelled (green line). By loan value, £millions...  By number of loans...  The slow down in recent months of loans made active is pretty clear. The figures for the current month are particularly troubling even accounting for the fact we're only a third of the way into November - less than a £million activated and only 11 loans. Confidence is low. |
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Post by df on Nov 11, 2018 2:46:11 GMT
The following charts show the monthly totals for loans activated (solid blue), loans completed (red line) and loans cancelled (green line). By loan value, £millions... By number of loans... The slow down in recent months of loans made active is pretty clear. The figures for the current month are particularly troubling even accounting for the fact we're only a third of the way into November - less than a £million activated and only 11 loans. Confidence is low. It doesn't help investors' confidence. Proportion of non-performing loans is growing. Hardly any new bling (can't compete with Unbolted in this asset type), properties are renewals/new tranches of the same old loans, nobody wants to invest in collection of military memorabilia or never ending boat building project, if any new art work or collections of toys come in - I doubt there will be much enthusiasm for them. The same happened to SS/Ly - the focus is on recoveries and desperately trying to keep the existing loans going.
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rogerthat
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Post by rogerthat on Nov 11, 2018 11:21:51 GMT
The focus should be on recoveries...and if it isn't then the FS platform wont survive in its present format. The level of potential and current bad debt is unsustainable and you don't need an MA in business economics to fathom that out. If the new management are serious about turning this around then they have to address the burgeoning debt mountain or they're finished
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Nov 11, 2018 11:43:05 GMT
dan1, great charts. It would be interesting to see what they looked like if renewals of existing loans were removed. My sense is that both Activations and Completions in recent moths have been dominated by the rolling over of existing loans into further renewals.
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technik
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Post by technik on Nov 11, 2018 14:07:33 GMT
dan1 , great charts. It would be interesting to see what they looked like if renewals of existing loans were removed. My sense is that both Activations and Completions in recent moths have been dominated by the rolling over of existing loans into further renewals. Yeah, lots of work in that, but think the general feeling is as you say - many renewals and wouldn't paint a pretty picture. That has always been an issue with the FS headline stats, that a £1mil loan, rolled over 9 more times for six months (and then defaults after 5 years, plus whatever extended default time FS take, say 2 years), will look like a total £10million (plus interest) of loans handled, £9.5million of which were 'successful' completions. A pretty rosy picture for 7 years of operation, when the whole thing could have been a dud from the outset.
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Post by dan1 on Nov 11, 2018 19:14:58 GMT
I've now added series showing loans activated and completed excluding renewals. A quick run-down... loans activated - solid blue loans activated excluding renewals - solid dark blue loans completed - red line loans completed excluding renewals - salmon line loans cancelled - green line By loan value, £millions...  By number of loans...  The figures for the current month to 11 Nov: loans activated - £837.8k (11) loans activated excluding renewals - £659.8k (6) loans completed - £590.18k (7) loans completed excluding renewals - £9k (1) loans cancelled - £35k (1) |
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Nov 11, 2018 19:46:28 GMT
Fantastic work dan1. Looks like genuinely new loans have been down all year (especially by value), outstripped in recent months by genuine completions. |
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technik
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Post by technik on Nov 12, 2018 9:49:18 GMT
Excellent stuff as ever dan1 , thank you! Thought you might have to go through working out which loans were linked, but were you able to exclude anything with 'renewal' in the title or something like that to get this updated overview? Really helpful! |
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Post by dan1 on Nov 12, 2018 9:58:26 GMT
Excellent stuff as ever dan1 , thank you! Thought you might have to go through working out which loans were linked, but were you able to exclude anything with 'renewal' in the title or something like that to get this updated overview? Really helpful! Yes, it was very easy to exclude loans containing 'renew' (case insensitive!) in their title from my sumifs statement. Not foolproof but as you may have guessed I wasn't going to trawl through 2.5k loans figuring out which were renewals. Btw, the traces showing completed loans are the sum of the loan amount not the capital amount returned to investors (i.e. it doesn't show lost capital). At some stage in the distant future when all loans are marked as either completed or cancelled the sum of the completed trace will equal the sum of the made active traces. Edit: I spent ten times as long faffing with the look of the charts than actually generating the totals excluding renewals!
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technik
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Post by technik on Nov 12, 2018 10:04:05 GMT
Yes, it was very easy to exclude loans containing 'renew' (case insensitive!) in their title from my sumifs statement. Not foolproof but as you may have guessed I wasn't going to trawl through 2.5k loans figuring out which were renewals. Btw, the traces showing completed loans are the sum of the loan amount not the capital amount returned to investors (i.e. it doesn't show lost capital). At some stage in the distant future when all loans are marked as either completed or cancelled the sum of the completed trace will equal the sum of the made active traces. Edit: I spent ten times as long faffing with the look of the charts than actually generating the totals excluding renewals! Haha, well you did a good job on both and as you say, any slight discrepancy from the exclusion technique far overshadowed by the useful info on what new business FS is doing/not doing. Also like that fact you've got enough of a precise nature to mention that info about the matching sums just for our info, rather than out of any thought that there is a distant future for FS where everything will have been wrapped up tidily!
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Nov 12, 2018 10:08:46 GMT
Dan1 - fantastic work - wonder if FS will be sending you and Xmas card?
To me all these renewals are really clouding the issue - this is OK if they all come good but they won't! Like a lot of us I have cleared out my portfolio but have about 1/3 left as late loans and it looks 50-50 to me as to whether interest to date is going to exceed my bad debts and that is not including cash drag.
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