bg
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Post by bg on Mar 21, 2020 19:41:55 GMT
My take on the current situation.
People are obviously very worried but they are now starting to discount some businesses (hotels, pubs, restaurants etc in particular) as if the businesses will definitely fail and that the value of the security will more than halve. What I think needs to be taken into consideration is the huge government response that has been announced, with I'm sure even more to follow. It is not in anyone's interests if when we overcome this virus (and we will overcome it) the UK comes out of it with no hotels, pubs, restaurants, retail shops surviving. The government will not allow this to happen, they have said they will do whatever it takes to support these businesses and have backed that up with firm action.
The way I see it, these businesses now have no business rates to pay, a cash grant (up to £25k) and their staff costs covered. It may be that their only (or at least their main) cost will be the interest they need to pay on their AC loan - something I am sure there can be a high degree of forbearance on if necessary. They can also access unsecured interest free loans from the government which would rank behind our loans.
I'm fairly sure these businesses will come out of this alive and also I do not foresee a commercial property crash. Yes, transactions will grind to a halt for a period but I am fairly confident once this fog lifts the pent up demand will be astronomical and prices will be no lower than before. As long as lenders are sensible and sympathetic to the situation (ie no fire sales into a non existent market) then we can come through this intact.
Yes, if you need the money right now by all means discount at 20%+, but if you are a long term investor its time to hold your nerve and not panic.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 21, 2020 22:31:01 GMT
My take on the current situation. People are obviously very worried but they are now starting to discount some businesses (hotels, pubs, restaurants etc in particular) as if the businesses will definitely fail and that the value of the security will more than halve. What I think needs to be taken into consideration is the huge government response that has been announced, with I'm sure even more to follow. It is not in anyone's interests if when we overcome this virus (and we will overcome it) the UK comes out of it with no hotels, pubs, restaurants, retail shops surviving. The government will not allow this to happen, they have said they will do whatever it takes to support these businesses and have backed that up with firm action. The way I see it, these businesses now have no business rates to pay, a cash grant (up to £25k) and their staff costs covered. It may be that their only (or at least their main) cost will be the interest they need to pay on their AC loan - something I am sure there can be a high degree of forbearance on if necessary. They can also access unsecured interest free loans from the government which would rank behind our loans. I'm fairly sure these businesses will come out of this alive and also I do not foresee a commercial property crash. Yes, transactions will grind to a halt for a period but I am fairly confident once this fog lifts the pent up demand will be astronomical and prices will be no lower than before. As long as lenders are sensible and sympathetic to the situation (ie no fire sales into a non existent market) then we can come through this intact. Yes, if you need the money right now by all means discount at 20%+, but if you are a long term investor its time to hold your nerve and not panic. Saving pubs does not mean saving those who loaned the pubs money. Haircuts to fat cat lenders, as it will be spun, seems odds on to me (like the bailouts to Greece etc)
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tonyr
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Post by tonyr on Mar 22, 2020 7:33:55 GMT
My take on the current situation. People are obviously very worried but they are now starting to discount some businesses (hotels, pubs, restaurants etc in particular) as if the businesses will definitely fail and that the value of the security will more than halve. What I think needs to be taken into consideration is the huge government response that has been announced, with I'm sure even more to follow. It is not in anyone's interests if when we overcome this virus (and we will overcome it) the UK comes out of it with no hotels, pubs, restaurants, retail shops surviving. The government will not allow this to happen, they have said they will do whatever it takes to support these businesses and have backed that up with firm action. The way I see it, these businesses now have no business rates to pay, a cash grant (up to £25k) and their staff costs covered. It may be that their only (or at least their main) cost will be the interest they need to pay on their AC loan - something I am sure there can be a high degree of forbearance on if necessary. They can also access unsecured interest free loans from the government which would rank behind our loans. I'm fairly sure these businesses will come out of this alive and also I do not foresee a commercial property crash. Yes, transactions will grind to a halt for a period but I am fairly confident once this fog lifts the pent up demand will be astronomical and prices will be no lower than before. As long as lenders are sensible and sympathetic to the situation (ie no fire sales into a non existent market) then we can come through this intact. Yes, if you need the money right now by all means discount at 20%+, but if you are a long term investor its time to hold your nerve and not panic. I'm a long term investor and I've just upped the discount on my (previsoulsy very solid) 8.5% interest loans to 5% discount. I doubt they will move. These are 60% to 70% loan to GDV with traunched drawdowns. Construction will stop soon. When it resumes in a year or so propery prices will have changed. The govenment will print any amount of money, that devalues everything we have. Many people will be out of work soon, that will create competition and wages will stagnate, if not fall. Whether it's a recession or a depression, I think we'll get a property price crash.
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bg
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Post by bg on Mar 22, 2020 9:24:28 GMT
Saving pubs does not mean saving those who loaned the pubs money. Haircuts to fat cat lenders, as it will be spun, seems odds on to me (like the bailouts to Greece etc) There are no similarities to the bailouts to Greece. Greece lied and misstated its national accounts and statistics to first join the Eurozone and then borrow money it could never hope to pay back. It's Greece's prerogative to propose restructures to this unsecured debt, it can pretty much say what it wants to its creditors whose only real leverage is the threat of throwing them out of the Eurozone/EU. Here however, we are talking about solid, performing businesses with low, serviceable debt. They have been told to shut their businesses by government for the good of humanity during a worldwide crisis and the government has said it will do whatever it takes to support them through it. These businesses can't force a haircut on their debt, the only way that can happen is if the business fails and the security (the premises) is sold for less than the loan value. That means the pub has not been 'saved'.
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bg
Member of DD Central
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Post by bg on Mar 22, 2020 9:33:53 GMT
I'm a long term investor and I've just upped the discount on my (previsoulsy very solid) 8.5% interest loans to 5% discount. I doubt they will move. These are 60% to 70% loan to GDV with traunched drawdowns. Construction will stop soon. When it resumes in a year or so propery prices will have changed. The govenment will print any amount of money, that devalues everything we have. Many people will be out of work soon, that will create competition and wages will stagnate, if not fall. Whether it's a recession or a depression, I think we'll get a property price crash. Agree that development projects are a different proposition. It may be difficult for AC to fund future tranches and it may be difficult for work to continue on them even if they can. This funding risk is one of the reasons I steer clear of multi tranche dev loans. Government printing of money does devalue the £ in your pocket but it doesn't devalue it by pushing asset prices down, it does so by pushing prices up. One of the goals of QE/helicopter money is to push asset prices up, as witnessed in the past decade. If the government were to give every person in the country £1m each then prices of everything would shoot up, irrespective of any other factor. I'm not saying prices are going to go up but the printing of money will not in itself push prices down.
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Post by brightspark on Mar 22, 2020 9:45:31 GMT
People need to adopt a cautious approach. Government policy could change or reverse as the economic costs mount.
Currently the view is that Coronavirus will cause a huge increase in deaths particularly amongst the elderly. However many elderly people die each year for all the usual reasons so the statistical increase in death rate as opposed to the number of deaths recorded as being from Coronavirus may not change that much if the current severely restricting policy was eased. The government may conclude that the current economic cost is too high of trying to stop a mainly elderly cohort of the population dying a little prematurely. They could change tack whilst maintaining NHS support for the afflicted.
Alternatively it might be worked out which strains (if any) of Coronavirus are mild and carriers of these strains could be "encouraged" to spread their infections - a sort of natural vaccination. Doubtless there are other scenarios others can postulate.
Journalists might press government harder re an endpoint at the daily TV news gathering. It is crucial to decision making particularly in the airline/tourism/retail/construction industries.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Mar 22, 2020 10:10:12 GMT
Now ordered by discount. | Loan # | Events | Last P | First L | Next P | Amount | LTV | Rate | Term | Available | Discounted | Best Rate | Best Amt | Drew | | 406 | M | 26-Feb-20 |
| 26-Mar-20 | 326,250 | 69.4 | 8 | 23 of 60 | 29,601 | 7,212 | -20 | 89 | 26/Jan/17 | | 340 | ML | 11-Feb-20 | 11-Mar-20 | 10-Apr-20 | 300,000 | 57 | 8 | 19 of 60 | 27,869 | 6,020 | -15 | 4,283 | 11/Oct/16 | | 766 | M | 09-Mar-20 |
| 08-Apr-20 | 255,000 | 70.8 | 7 | 40 of 60 | 19,459 | 4,890 | -10.5 | 550 | 9/Jul/18 | | 825 | M | 14-Mar-20 |
| 13-Apr-20 | 318,000 | 62.4 | 7.5 | 42 of 60 | 27,648 | 1,984 | -10.5 | 55 | 14/Sep/18 | | 572 | M | 07-Mar-20 |
| 06-Apr-20 | 130,000 | 37.1 | 7.5 | 32 of 60 | 17,252 | 1,620 | -10 | 9 | 7/Nov/17 | | 819 | M | 06-Mar-20 |
| 05-Apr-20 | 300,000 | 60 | 7 | 42 of 60 | 35,410 | 4,403 | -10 | 1,942 | 6/Sep/18 | | 878 | M | 05-Mar-20 |
| 03-Apr-20 | 1,446,465 | 65 | 8 | 3 of 19 | 36,911 | 4,312 | -10 | 1,000 | 30/Nov/18 |
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Loan
# | Events | Last P | First L | Next P | Amount | LTV | Rate | Term | Available | Discounted | Best
Rate | Best
Amt | Drew | | 1242 | M | 23-Feb-20 |
| 23-Mar-20 | 460,000 | 73.6 | 6 | 59 of 60 | 352,226 | 50 | -0.5 | 50 | 23/Jan/20 | | 1245 | M | 29-Feb-20 |
| 29-Mar-20 | 850,000 | 63 | 6 | 59 of 60 | 378,573 | 100 | -0.5 | 100 | 29/Jan/20 | | 1249 | M | 29-Feb-20 |
| 30-Mar-20 | 353,522 | 67.3 | 6 | 60 of 60 | 242,101 | 50 | -0.5 | 50 | 31/Jan/20 | | 1248 | M | 03-Mar-20 |
| 02-Apr-20 | 320,000 | 53.3 | 6 | 59 of 60 | 199,526 | 225 | -0.5 | 225 | 3/Feb/20 | | 1254 | M | 11-Mar-20 |
| 10-Apr-20 | 862,500 | 75 | 6 | 59 of 60 | 390,140 | 50 | -0.5 | 50 | 11/Feb/20 | | 1255 | M | 12-Mar-20 |
| 11-Apr-20 | 240,000 | 60.5 | 6 | 47 of 48 | 218,552 | 50 | -0.5 | 50 | 12/Feb/20 | | 1259 | M | 20-Mar-20 |
| 20-Mar-20 | 2,104,951 | 58.2 | 8 | 17 of 18 | 324,034 | 144 | -0.5 | 144 | 18/Feb/20 | | 1258 | M | 18-Mar-20 |
| 17-Apr-20 | 400,000 | 67.8 | 6.6 | 35 of 36 | 231,460 | 100 | -0.5 | 100 | 18/Feb/20 | | 1263 | M |
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| 21-Mar-20 | 917,000 | 63.2 | 6 | 48 of 48 | 388,287 | 50 | -0.5 | 50 | 21/Feb/20 | | 1264 | M |
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| 21-Mar-20 | 27,568 | 65 | 7 | 18 of 18 | 343 | 50 | -0.5 | 50 | 21/Feb/20 | | 1269 | M |
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| 28-Mar-20 | 790,140 | 63.8 | 6.5 | 18 of 18 | 344,444 | 100 | -0.5 | 100 | 28/Feb/20 | | 1270 | M |
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| 28-Mar-20 | 667,000 | 50 | 7 | 12 of 12 | 352,334 | 99 | -0.5 | 99 | 28/Feb/20 | | 1272 | M |
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| 02-Apr-20 | 899,768 | 64.6 | 7 | 18 of 18 | 355,008 | 100 | -0.5 | 100 | 3/Mar/20 | | 1274 | M |
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| 05-Apr-20 | 350,000 | 70 | 6 | 60 of 60 | 247,903 | 50 | -0.5 | 50 | 6/Mar/20 | | 1275 | M |
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| 08-Apr-20 | 629,000 | 64.5 | 7 | 12 of 12 | 344,895 | 99 | -0.5 | 99 | 9/Mar/20 | | 1277 | M |
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| 08-Apr-20 | 500,000 | 47.9 | 6 | 60 of 60 | 390,237 | 15 | -0.5 | 15 | 9/Mar/20 |
You're only allowed half a million words a post 
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Mar 22, 2020 10:19:23 GMT
I'm a long term investor and I've just upped the discount on my (previsoulsy very solid) 8.5% interest loans to 5% discount. I doubt they will move. These are 60% to 70% loan to GDV with traunched drawdowns. Construction will stop soon. When it resumes in a year or so propery prices will have changed. The govenment will print any amount of money, that devalues everything we have. Many people will be out of work soon, that will create competition and wages will stagnate, if not fall. Whether it's a recession or a depression, I think we'll get a property price crash. The SM is pricing seems to be liquidity led more than risk led. Yes, the risk has gone up but in the first instance the discounts reflect pockets of desperation for liquidity. There are near identical loans where one is at par and the other at circa double digit discounts. T he £15m from BBB should hopefully help AC to continue to service existing development drawdown. I hope AC prioritise those over new loans. And AC presumably will continue to use some access accounts liquidity to service the tranches too. The odds of a house price correction are higher but a crash might be avoided with droit handling of the economy. There aren’t many safe places to put money going forward and currently residential property looks better than stock markets. I think Mark Twain had a pithy saying on the subject but this time it’d pertain to perhaps more downside protection vs other asset classes. Clearly there is a very valid view that anything could happen. And at the moment the set of anythings seems to have more negative members than positive.
My bold above. With the £15mm - I suspect that has to be lent along side Lenders money of £100mm, that's may reading of some scant reporting. So I could see a certain amount perhaps upto 15% going into tranches of different loans and some into new loans.
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IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 22, 2020 10:44:28 GMT
People need to adopt a cautious approach. Government policy could change or reverse as the economic costs mount. Currently the view is that Coronavirus will cause a huge increase in deaths particularly amongst the elderly. However many elderly people die each year for all the usual reasons so the statistical increase in death rate as opposed to the number of deaths recorded as being from Coronavirus may not change that much if the current severely restricting policy was eased. The government may conclude that the current economic cost is too high of trying to stop a mainly elderly cohort of the population dying a little prematurely. They could change tack whilst maintaining NHS support for the afflicted. Alternatively it might be worked out which strains (if any) of Coronavirus are mild and carriers of these strains could be "encouraged" to spread their infections - a sort of natural vaccination. Doubtless there are other scenarios others can postulate. Journalists might press government harder re an endpoint at the daily TV news gathering. It is crucial to decision making particularly in the airline/tourism/retail/construction industries.A huge number perhaps, but how much of an increase is unclear. medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196"Every year around 600,000 people die in the UK... if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost."
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tonyr
Member of DD Central
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Post by tonyr on Mar 22, 2020 11:44:40 GMT
I'm a long term investor and I've just upped the discount on my (previsoulsy very solid) 8.5% interest loans to 5% discount. I doubt they will move. These are 60% to 70% loan to GDV with traunched drawdowns. Construction will stop soon. When it resumes in a year or so propery prices will have changed. The govenment will print any amount of money, that devalues everything we have. Many people will be out of work soon, that will create competition and wages will stagnate, if not fall. Whether it's a recession or a depression, I think we'll get a property price crash. The SM is pricing seems to be liquidity led more than risk led. Yes, the risk has gone up but in the first instance the discounts reflect pockets of desperation for liquidity. There are near identical loans where one is at par and the other at circa double digit discounts. The £15m from BBB should hopefully help AC to continue to service existing development drawdown. I hope AC prioritise those over new loans. And AC presumably will continue to use some access accounts liquidity to service the tranches too. The odds of a house price correction are higher but a crash might be avoided with droit handling of the economy. There aren’t many safe places to put money going forward and currently residential property looks better than stock markets. I think Mark Twain had a pithy saying on the subject but this time it’d pertain to perhaps more downside protection vs other asset classes. Clearly there is a very valid view that anything could happen. And at the moment the set of anythings seems to have more negative members than positive. You say many interesting things - thanks. Are the current discounts due to liquidity or risk? I'm not sure we can say. The estimation of risk is hard and AC investors are not professionals, so there will be lots of variation. Also AC investors will have a patchy portfolio, so if one person discounts all they have then that won't lead to discount over all loans. 4% was high for a discount a few days ago, now we have 50%, so it's clearly all over. Let's hope AC do use the £15m from BBB to aid their exinstnig customers. But traunches are dependent on progress, no progress no more money, yet there are developers with morgages to pay and other overheads, at some point they might just walk away from their Special Purpose Vehicle. Does residental property look better than the stock market? Well the stock market is already down 30% or so and it tends to price the future in very quickly. Has residential property fallen that much - I don't think so - so maybe the main fall is to come. Let's see if some of the loans that are due to repay through sales really happen. EDIT: I'm looking at the distribution of discounts and I think this gives strong evidence in favour of being driven by liquidity not risk. There are small amounts at high discounts and much more at lower discounts. Sales will go to the highest discount first, the broad range says the received discount is due to liquidity.
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tonyr
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Post by tonyr on Mar 22, 2020 11:47:21 GMT
I'm a long term investor and I've just upped the discount on my (previsoulsy very solid) 8.5% interest loans to 5% discount. I doubt they will move. These are 60% to 70% loan to GDV with traunched drawdowns. Construction will stop soon. When it resumes in a year or so propery prices will have changed. The govenment will print any amount of money, that devalues everything we have. Many people will be out of work soon, that will create competition and wages will stagnate, if not fall. Whether it's a recession or a depression, I think we'll get a property price crash. Agree that development projects are a different proposition. It may be difficult for AC to fund future tranches and it may be difficult for work to continue on them even if they can. This funding risk is one of the reasons I steer clear of multi tranche dev loans. Government printing of money does devalue the £ in your pocket but it doesn't devalue it by pushing asset prices down, it does so by pushing prices up. One of the goals of QE/helicopter money is to push asset prices up, as witnessed in the past decade. If the government were to give every person in the country £1m each then prices of everything would shoot up, irrespective of any other factor. I'm not saying prices are going to go up but the printing of money will not in itself push prices down. Thank you for making that arguement - much appreciated. I stand corrected, I now believe that pumping money in will support the £ value of housing.
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bg
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Post by bg on Mar 22, 2020 12:42:13 GMT
Showing only discounts 6% and higher:- | Loan # | Events | Last P | First L | Next P | Amount | LTV | Rate | Term | Available | Discounted | Best Rate | Best Amt | Drew | | 340 | ML | 11-Feb-20 | 11-Mar-20 | 10-Apr-20 | 300,000 | 57 | 8 | 19 of 60 | 27,572 | 5,441 | -20 | 89 | 11/Oct/16 | | 406 | M | 26-Feb-20 | | 26-Mar-20 | 326,250 | 69.4 | 8 | 23 of 60 | 29,525 | 7,123 | -16 | 4,454 | 26/Jan/17 | | 931 | M | 11-Mar-20 | | 10-Apr-20 | 1,800,000 | 58.3 | 7 | 47 of 60 | 264,419 | 8,268 | -15 | 499 | 11/Feb/19 | | 572 | M | 07-Mar-20 | | 06-Apr-20 | 130,000 | 37.1 | 7.5 | 32 of 60 | 19,656 | 3,978 | -11 | 7 | 7/Nov/17 | | 766 | M | 09-Mar-20 | | 08-Apr-20 | 255,000 | 70.8 | 7 | 40 of 60 | 19,628 | 4,890 | -10.5 | 550 | 9/Jul/18 | | 825 | M | 14-Mar-20 | | 13-Apr-20 | 318,000 | 62.4 | 7.5 | 42 of 60 | 28,049 | 1,937 | -10.5 | 8 | 14/Sep/18 | | 607 | M | 29-Feb-20 | | 29-Mar-20 | 215,000 | 60.9 | 8 | 35 of 60 | 15,772 | 1,921 | -10 | 181 | 29/Jan/18 | | 507 | M | 24-Feb-20 | | 26-Mar-20 | 125,300 | 62.6 | 6 | 28 of 60 | 10,458 | 765 | -10 | 111 | 11/Jul/17 | | 451 | M | 29-Feb-20 | | 30-Mar-20 | 120,000 | 66.7 | 7 | 25 of 60 | 12,959 | 1,547 | -10 | 461 | 31/Mar/17 | | 378 | M | 28-Feb-20 | | 28-Mar-20 | 198,750 | 73 | 8 | 21 of 60 | 12,688 | 1,268 | -10 | 47 | 28/Nov/16 | | 810 | M | 28-Feb-20 | | 28-Mar-20 | 235,000 | 72.3 | 8 | 42 of 60 | 19,670 | 1,907 | -10 | 679 | 28/Aug/18 | | 819 | M | 06-Mar-20 | | 05-Apr-20 | 300,000 | 60 | 7 | 42 of 60 | 35,866 | 4,403 | -10 | 1,942 | 6/Sep/18 | | 878 | M | 05-Mar-20 | | 03-Apr-20 | 1,446,465 | 65 | 8 | 3 of 19 | 37,210 | 4,312 | -10 | 1,000 | 30/Nov/18 | | 970 | M | 04-Mar-20 | | 04-Apr-20 | 1,796,315 | 71.8 | 8 | 4 of 15 | 409,934 | 2,952 | -10 | 953 | 28/Mar/19 | | 981 | M | 02-Mar-20 | | 31-Mar-20 | 869,167 | 56.7 | 7 | 13 of 25 | 167,433 | 32,741 | -10 | 469 | 29/Mar/19 | | 973 | M | 04-Mar-20 | | 03-Apr-20 | 1,196,846 | 67 | 8 | 7 of 18 | 274,828 | 4,296 | -10 | 1,000 | 30/Mar/19 | | 985 | ML | 06-Feb-20 | 08-Mar-20 | 08-Apr-20 | 7,150,000 | 65 | 9 | 2 of 13 | 257,361 | 30,288 | -10 | 1,000 | 5/Apr/19 | | 986 | ML | 07-Dec-19 | 29-Feb-20 | 29-Mar-20 | 3,687,038 | 66 | 8 | 1 of 12 | 516,325 | 2,299 | -10 | 874 | 5/Apr/19 | | 994 | M | 15-Mar-20 | | 14-Apr-20 | 1,727,786 | 67.4 | 8.5 | 2 of 14 | 285,580 | 72,981 | -10 | 994 | 10/Apr/19 | | 1005 | M | 29-Feb-20 | | 29-Mar-20 | 315,000 | 70 | 7 | 50 of 60 | 247,125 | 3,612 | -10 | 219 | 29/Apr/19 | | 1021 | M | 10-Mar-20 | | 09-Apr-20 | 1,295,000 | 70 | 8 | 50 of 60 | 385,586 | 177,532 | -10 | 290 | 10/May/19 | | 1036 | M | 03-Mar-20 | | 02-Apr-20 | 783,296 | 67.2 | 7 | 3 of 13 | 159,836 | 845 | -10 | 500 | 31/May/19 | | 1042 | M | 14-Mar-20 | | 13-Apr-20 | 180,000 | 64.3 | 6.5 | 51 of 60 | 102,951 | 600 | -10 | 500 | 14/Jun/19 | | 1051 | M | 22-Jan-20 | | 22-Mar-20 | 983,204 | 65.7 | 7.5 | 11 of 18 | 35,018 | 8,418 | -10 | 500 | 21/Jun/19 | | 1055 | M | 06-Mar-20 | | 28-Mar-20 | 3,244,293 | 70 | 8.5 | 7 of 16 | 285,808 | 154,333 | -10 | 732 | 24/Jun/19 | | 1053 | M | 13-Mar-20 | | 28-Mar-20 | 677,289 | 63.2 | 7 | 10 of 19 | 55,985 | 4,394 | -10 | 382 | 24/Jun/19 | | 1062 | M | 26-Feb-20 | | 26-Mar-20 | 250,000 | 44 | 6.5 | 15 of 23 | 23,867 | 1,320 | -10 | 500 | 26/Jun/19 | | 1072 | M | 05-Mar-20 | | 03-Apr-20 | 986,000 | 64.7 | 7 | 7 of 16 | 65,103 | 3,360 | -10 | 500 | 1/Jul/19 | | 1083 | M | 16-Mar-20 | | 15-Apr-20 | 412,500 | 73 | 7 | 52 of 60 | 156,051 | 762 | -10 | 488 | 16/Jul/19 | | 1084 | M | 20-Feb-20 | | 22-Mar-20 | 1,793,344 | 67.7 | 8.5 | 17 of 25 | 479,270 | 194,197 | -10 | 556 | 19/Jul/19 | | 1089 | M | 24-Feb-20 | | 24-Mar-20 | 1,150,000 | 73 | 7 | 41 of 48 | 303,408 | 2,231 | -10 | 498 | 24/Jul/19 | | 1095 | M | 04-Mar-20 | | 03-Apr-20 | 5,904,448 | 54.1 | 9 | 2 of 10 | 741,635 | 21,996 | -10 | 769 | 31/Jul/19 | | 1094 | M | 02-Mar-20 | | 30-Mar-20 | 576,657 | 55 | 6.5 | 9 of 16 | 207,963 | 820 | -10 | 500 | 31/Jul/19 | | 1098 | M | 04-Mar-20 | | 03-Apr-20 | 658,078 | 65.8 | 7 | 5 of 13 | 155,814 | 547 | -10 | 500 | 1/Aug/19 | | 1109 | M | 20-Mar-20 | | 19-Apr-20 | 739,292 | 70 | 8.5 | 11 of 18 | 243,111 | 114,839 | -10 | 999 | 20/Aug/19 | | 1116 | M | 05-Mar-20 | | 04-Apr-20 | 3,416,686 | 63.7 | 8.5 | 13 of 19 | 559,609 | 204,706 | -10 | 500 | 3/Sep/19 | | 1155 | M | 18-Mar-20 | | 17-Apr-20 | 687,904 | 57.1 | 7 | 10 of 16 | 26,903 | 1,736 | -10 | 500 | 15/Oct/19 | | 1195 | M | 29-Feb-20 | | 28-Mar-20 | 2,086,350 | 70.8 | 8 | 9 of 12 | 298,594 | 26,529 | -10 | 68 | 29/Nov/19 | | 1203 | M | 06-Mar-20 | | 03-Apr-20 | 274,704 | 54.2 | 6.5 | 18 of 21 | 121,389 | 698 | -10 | 500 | 4/Dec/19 | | 1202 | M | 08-Mar-20 | | 07-Apr-20 | 2,891,165 | 51 | 7.5 | 15 of 18 | 342,349 | 6,268 | -10 | 500 | 6/Dec/19 | | 1210 | M | 19-Feb-20 | | 18-Apr-20 | 1,250,000 | 68.1 | 7 | 58 of 60 | 323,462 | 6,901 | -10 | 498 | 19/Dec/19 | | 1213 | M | 20-Mar-20 | | 19-Apr-20 | 1,300,000 | 65 | 7.2 | 57 of 60 | 332,760 | 1,148 | -10 | 499 | 20/Dec/19 | | 1217 | M | 20-Feb-20 | | 19-Apr-20 | 1,150,000 | 54.8 | 7.2 | 58 of 60 | 255,425 | 6,631 | -10 | 497 | 20/Dec/19 | | 691 | M | 20-Feb-20 | | 22-Mar-20 | 4,810,831 | 65 | 7 | 5 of 28 | 159,182 | 4,848 | -9 | 300 | 13/Apr/18 | | 949 | M | 04-Mar-20 | | 03-Apr-20 | 355,000 | 64 | 5.5 | 48 of 60 | 221,179 | 8,033 | -9 | 1,949 | 4/Mar/19 | | 566 | M | 29-Feb-20 | | 30-Mar-20 | 234,375 | 74.4 | 7.5 | 32 of 60 | 46,684 | 195 | -8 | 195 | 31/Oct/17 | | 552 | M | 02-Mar-20 | | 01-Apr-20 | 152,750 | 64.3 | 7 | 31 of 60 | 28,406 | 23,029 | -8 | 19,942 | 2/Oct/17 | | 480 | M | 29-Feb-20 | | 30-Mar-20 | 450,000 | 61.6 | 7 | 28 of 60 | 29,229 | 1,225 | -8 | 97 | 31/May/17 | | 371 | M | 15-Mar-20 | | 14-Apr-20 | 300,000 | 45.5 | 7 | 20 of 60 | 20,216 | 2,288 | -7 | 743 | 15/Nov/16 | | 287 | M | 03-Mar-20 | | 02-Apr-20 | 318,000 | 44.6 | 8.5 | 15 of 60 | 38,034 | 6,799 | -7 | 3,181 | 3/Jun/16 | | 828 | M | 03-Mar-20 | | 02-Apr-20 | 2,411,194 | 64 | 8 | 3 of 21 | 275,704 | 99,068 | -7 | 4 | 25/Sep/18 | | 1101 | M | 09-Mar-20 | | 08-Apr-20 | 375,000 | 75 | 7 | 53 of 60 | 216,716 | 1,645 | -7 | 490 | 9/Aug/19 | | 1175 | M | 08-Mar-20 | | 07-Apr-20 | 215,000 | 53.8 | 6.5 | 5 of 9 | 26,699 | 512 | -7 | 500 | 8/Nov/19 | | 793 | M | 06-Mar-20 | | 05-Apr-20 | 320,000 | 53.3 | 7 | 29 of 48 | 22,870 | 1,887 | -6.5 | 78 | 6/Aug/18 | | 799 | M | 16-Mar-20 | | 15-Apr-20 | 205,000 | 66.1 | 7 | 41 of 60 | 23,562 | 1,636 | -6.5 | 737 | 16/Aug/18 | | 815 | M | 29-Feb-20 | | 29-Mar-20 | 995,000 | 47.4 | 7.5 | 42 of 60 | 138,609 | 2,807 | -6.5 | 107 | 30/Aug/18 | | 934 | ML | 12-Mar-20 | 12-Mar-20 | 11-Apr-20 | 750,000 | 56.8 | 5 | 47 of 60 | 563,351 | 41,852 | -6.5 | 2,734 | 12/Feb/19 | | 935 | M | 18-Mar-20 | | 17-Apr-20 | 438,000 | 54.8 | 5 | 47 of 60 | 268,166 | 25,050 | -6.5 | 1,067 | 18/Feb/19 | | 661 | M | 12-Mar-20 | | 11-Apr-20 | 127,500 | 74.8 | 7.5 | 36 of 60 | 15,079 | 1,305 | -6 | 522 | 12/Mar/18 | | 604 | M | 26-Feb-20 | | 26-Mar-20 | 265,844 | 53.2 | 7 | 35 of 60 | 27,880 | 3,661 | -6 | 722 | 26/Jan/18 | | 577 | M | 22-Feb-20 | | 22-Mar-20 | 210,000 | 64.6 | 7.5 | 33 of 60 | 11,246 | 1,039 | -6 | 452 | 22/Nov/17 | | 491 | M | 15-Mar-20 | | 14-Apr-20 | 615,000 | 69.8 | 7.8 | 27 of 60 | 63,957 | 3,470 | -6 | 633 | 15/Jun/17 | | 460 | M | 27-Feb-20 | | 27-Mar-20 | 150,000 | 71.4 | 8 | 26 of 60 | 5,840 | 1,408 | -6 | 79 | 27/Apr/17 | | 289 | M | 13-Mar-20 | | 12-Apr-20 | 485,000 | 65.7 | 8 | 15 of 60 | 17,703 | 1,761 | -6 | 294 | 13/Jun/16 | | 932 | M | 13-Mar-20 | | 12-Apr-20 | 430,000 | 64.7 | 5 | 47 of 60 | 261,902 | 13,825 | -6 | 2,727 | 13/Feb/19 | | 1038 | M | 10-Mar-20 | | 09-Apr-20 | 933,378 | 64.4 | 7 | 7 of 17 | 22,550 | 3,707 | -6 | 500 | 6/Jun/19 | | 1125 | M | 06-Mar-20 | | 05-Apr-20 | 525,000 | 52.5 | 6 | 54 of 60 | 350,602 | 476 | -6 | 367 | 6/Sep/19 | | 1190 | M | 22-Feb-20 | | 22-Mar-20 | 238,000 | 70 | 7 | 15 of 18 | 22,049 | 2,065 | -6 | 3 | 22/Nov/19 | | 1224 | M | 23-Feb-20 | | 23-Mar-20 | 1,697,000 | 69.3 | 8 | 3 of 5 | 274,511 | 13,833 | -6 | 49 | 23/Dec/19 |
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cb25
Posts: 3,528
Likes: 2,668
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Post by cb25 on Mar 22, 2020 14:53:00 GMT
People need to adopt a cautious approach. Government policy could change or reverse as the economic costs mount. Currently the view is that Coronavirus will cause a huge increase in deaths particularly amongst the elderly. However many elderly people die each year for all the usual reasons so the statistical increase in death rate as opposed to the number of deaths recorded as being from Coronavirus may not change that much if the current severely restricting policy was eased. The government may conclude that the current economic cost is too high of trying to stop a mainly elderly cohort of the population dying a little prematurely. They could change tack whilst maintaining NHS support for the afflicted. Alternatively it might be worked out which strains (if any) of Coronavirus are mild and carriers of these strains could be "encouraged" to spread their infections - a sort of natural vaccination. Doubtless there are other scenarios others can postulate. Journalists might press government harder re an endpoint at the daily TV news gathering. It is crucial to decision making particularly in the airline/tourism/retail/construction industries.A huge number perhaps, but how much of an increase is unclear. medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196"Every year around 600,000 people die in the UK... if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost." Perversely, if there aren't a sizeable number of deaths due to the virus (and I'm not sure how big a number that would have to be), I could see people afterwards asking "did we put up with all those restrictions, loss of jobs, companies going bust, national debt rocketing, just for that!?"
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tonyr
Member of DD Central
Posts: 477
Likes: 258
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Post by tonyr on Mar 22, 2020 15:44:03 GMT
A huge number perhaps, but how much of an increase is unclear. medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196"Every year around 600,000 people die in the UK... if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost." Perversely, if there aren't a sizeable number of deaths due to the virus (and I'm not sure how big a number that would have to be), I could see people afterwards asking "did we put up with all those restrictions, loss of jobs, companies going bust, national debt rocketing, just for that!?" Well, this is off topic (so blat me for it if needs be) but depending what assumptions you make, there may be no loss of healthy life years. Broadly speaking, the argument goes like this - the average age of death from COVID-19 is about 78 - in the majority it's hitting those that have serious health conditions and (sorry to be blunt) may not have had long to live anyway. On the other hand, we are pumping far less greenhouse gasses out (which would have killed lots in the long term unless we found some way to make the drastic changes need) and air polutiton is already a huge killer and that's gone way down, never mind road accidents and lots of other things. EDIT: In hindsight my post above is a very first world way of looking at things.
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ceejay
Posts: 975
Likes: 1,149
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Post by ceejay on Mar 22, 2020 17:38:49 GMT
Perversely, if there aren't a sizeable number of deaths due to the virus (and I'm not sure how big a number that would have to be), I could see people afterwards asking "did we put up with all those restrictions, loss of jobs, companies going bust, national debt rocketing, just for that!?" which would be just as daft as the old Millennium Bug chestnut ... nothing went seriously wrong so what was all the fuss about? Well, not much went wrong precisely because such a fuss was made, and it would be the same here. The way to get to the bottom of the question, well after the event, might be to compare outcomes in countries which took different approaches, although that analysis would be dubious because each would have had different inputs.
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