jester
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Post by jester on Apr 2, 2023 18:17:43 GMT
You've always shared solid advice in the past @bobo but when it comes to choosing between REITs and hoarding baked beans I prefer to avoid the doomsday scenarios in my mind and not eat like I did when studenting!!
I was looking for an avenue to add property to my investment portfolio without having my own rental. I also went for Property Partner alongside the REITs. In theory it isn't down by as much but I know which I've got more faith in recovering as interest rates drop off!
So back to considering doubling down on these REITs ... are they good value now!??!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2023 18:42:18 GMT
My view is it is time to gently fill up with bonds and specific Reits.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2023 19:22:57 GMT
But, as always work out when you will sell before you buy.
Putin will hang on another year. The war has another 4 years to go
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jester
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Post by jester on Apr 5, 2023 14:56:22 GMT
The REITS in my portfolio which have lost most heavily are:
Regional (offices outside M25) down 45%
New River (retail&shopping) down 30%
Primary Health Properties down 25%
Supermarket Income down 25%
LXI (wide range commerical) down 20%
Picton (industrial&commercial) down 15%
Tritax Big Box down 10%
I also have some breaking even and a few in the plus.
Of the biggest losers it's PHP and Supermarket I'm most tempted to double down on. Any thoughts anyone?
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Apr 5, 2023 16:36:11 GMT
The REITS in my portfolio which have lost most heavily are: Regional (offices outside M25) down 45% New River (retail&shopping) down 30% Primary Health Properties down 25% Supermarket Income down 25% LXI (wide range commerical) down 20% Picton (industrial&commercial) down 15% Tritax Big Box down 10% I also have some breaking even and a few in the plus. Of the biggest losers it's PHP and Supermarket I'm most tempted to double down on. Any thoughts anyone? Supermarket was tipped as value income buy at up to 90p by the Sheriff yesterday
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jester
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Post by jester on Apr 5, 2023 17:32:19 GMT
Not familiar with The Sheriff but good to have someone confirm your thoughts as a good buy!! Cheers ilmoro |
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jester
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Post by jester on Apr 6, 2023 7:05:41 GMT
I have realised the above numbers are a bit meaningless for analysis as they are based on my personal losses but bought at different times.
I've looked a percentage drop from their tops for a fairer comparison.
New River - 77%
Regional - 58%
Sirius - 45%
Tritax Big Box - 42%
Warehouse - 40%
Primary Healthcare - 40%
LXI - 34%
Supermarket - 34%
Picton - 30%
Unite - 26%
I'll ignore any that have performed better than this in my portfolio!
I've lost faith in New River and not sure I want more office exposure even at these prices with Regional.
Very interested currently in adding to Big Box and Warehouse for commercial, Primary Healthcare and Supermarket as needs which won't go away.
Where if anywhere would you see as value currently?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2023 7:27:33 GMT
I think all of this has to be seen against the backdrop of Russia, China, North Korea, Trump and rising interest rates/inflation
REITs do best when interest rates are low (free capital) so my logic in buying more would be a belief that interest rates are going to drop and that will happen if major wars stop and if the West moves off fossil fuels that are outside its local control. This explains why our government is jumping on the North sea (faster, more stupid and more dangerous) rather than on wind turbines and power storage .
So I might hedge a bet on TRIG which supports the reduction in fossil fuels. (Slower but more sensible and safer)
Like you, I put some money in private storage companies, but sold out at loses of 5% (pre-set at time of buy, but manually implemented not automated) as the drop started. Right now I struggle to see how these companies are going to do better until I think interest rates drop.
Since most pay increases have now locked in 10% for the year starting August 2022 and I don't know what the West's game plan for Russia is I'd only go back in gently and then double up as each REIT passes certain pre-set levels (based on standard deviations of normal movement). Doubling up is by far the best way to see this, doubling down is a mug's game (IMHO).
Taking losses. I tend to take at the end of a year to minimise my capital gains tax bill. I also take a fair few at the start of a year to free up cash and clear my head, but of course I try to sell when I hit pre-sets, but Putin came out of the blue which is hurting right now.
Like the old joke "the most dangerous nut in the car is the one behind the stearing wheel", "the most stupid share trading mechanism is the reptile brain in the back of the human brain", fear drives us and needs to be pushed down on.
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Apr 6, 2023 16:45:25 GMT
5th of April, new tax year, people have money available and almost everything at a premium to yesterday
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jester
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Post by jester on Apr 7, 2023 7:43:27 GMT
@bobo what do you mean by doubling up? How do you implement this?
As far as doubling down on this applies I feel I'm happy with the dividend I'd be getting at current rates with a potential upside of 30-40% on holdings if they take the leap back to all time highs at any point in the future.
It's not a logic I would apply to all investments but buy low sell high is surely the aim? Buying now is simply lowering my average buying price if there is confidence values are only being held down by interest rates.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2023 13:06:03 GMT
jester Doubling up. When I buy an investment I work out where I expect it to move to. So I buy it at £1 and estimate I want it to be say £1.12 in a year's time. So I draw a straight line on a graph roughly (yeah do the maths) a penny rise per month. If it achieves say 2p a month growth I'm very interested in the company. So I'll dig in and find out if my basic idea is still there. If it is I might buy more. If on the other hand it is not achieving 1p a month I'll not buy more and I may even sell.
Let's talk through why I don't double down. I invest say £1 and I expect it to go up by 1p a month. It goes down. Once it goes through my limits I'll look quickly at it and see is there anything I understand, if not I'll sell at a loss. But buying more shares that I don't understand makes little sense to me.
My financial advisor prefers me to stick with falling assets, but even he doesn't suggest buying more.
Do you find doubling down has a proven track record of success (give details)?
After 30 or more years share trading I think I know very little about the subject (my ignorance is infinite) but one think I have spotted is, shares go up slowly and down fast and no one knows where the bottom is
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keitha
Member of DD Central
2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Apr 7, 2023 14:34:41 GMT
After 30 or more years share trading I think I know very little about the subject (my ignorance is infinite) but one think I have spotted is, shares go up slowly and down fast and no one knows where the bottom is
almost exactly the opposite of fuel ( petrol/diesel, Gas, electric )
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Post by bracknellboy on Apr 8, 2023 7:46:09 GMT
After 30 or more years share trading I think I know very little about the subject (my ignorance is infinite) but one think I have spotted is, shares go up slowly and down fast and no one knows where the bottom is
Oh I don't kow: some shares go up very fast. But when they do, you know its too late to join the party, and wish you had had some 'insider' knowledge. to benefit
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jester
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Post by jester on Apr 10, 2023 7:14:52 GMT
@bobo cheers for the doubling up explanation, definitely food for thought! I have no example of doubling down working as it's not a tactic I usually employ really.
On this occasion I suspect our different outlook is based on our investing activity. You are clearly actively trading, keeping a close eye on purchases, news and prices.
On the other hand I'm time limited with work, family and triathlon while the body allows. For the most part my investments are fire and forget all world trackers and black box style P2P offerings. I hold a few REITs for property exposure. However I really just buy/sell to balance the portfolio out so in that case buying into REITs when they have dropped to reduce my average cost and realign my portfolio makes sense to me. Perhaps doubling down was the wrong term?!?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2023 7:31:43 GMT
I don't spend any time monitoring the share. I set up limit triggers and act only when they pop. Most days nothing, when I get a message I'll look at them that evening and plan any changes for tomorrow. I only hold 15-20 assets.
semi-automation works for me, but it needs planning rather than fire and forget
doubling down was fine and is a strategy I've seen and discussed with others. I was at an small dinner with Terry Smith where this was discused. Terry just couldn't understand it.
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