archie
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Post by archie on Oct 18, 2018 8:17:12 GMT
0%  Sold everything a year ago. |
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mary
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Post by mary on Oct 18, 2018 8:54:27 GMT
Of my remaining loans (all defaulted) I need a small recovery of 3% to break even, so provided that the platform survives sufficiently to make some recoveries (by no means certain) I expect a reasonable profit.
Obviously I been actively withdrawing for many months now. I have worse experiences elsewhere, but the outcome is heavily dependent on how the recoveries turn out.
People later to the party are going to be the ones shouldering Lendy’s capital losses that will likely make Collateral a minor blip.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Oct 18, 2018 9:24:13 GMT
My lifetime interest + bonus + cashback represents about 23.5% of my live loan parts, so unless recoveries are exceptionally poor, I'd expect to at least retain a small residual profit.
The level of "distressed loans" involves a highly subjective decision about which loans you consider "distressed", so if you want a more specific answer that meets YOUR definition of what counts as "distressed", you'll need to ask a more specific question!
At one extreme someone could consider only those loans where the security has been sold ("claims underway") as "distressed", which are 2.18% of my portfolio, making it 9.3% of my lifetime earnings on the platform.
At the other extreme someone could consider all loans "distressed" just because they're listed on Lendy at all, making it 100% of my portfolio, and 425% of my lifetime earnings!
Taking the middle ground, and considering all loans where Lendy have suspended trading as "distressed" (a simple and unambiguous measure when scrolling down the list of "live loanparts"), including those for which trading was suspended yesterday, thats 54.2% of my live loans, and 230% of lifetime earnings.
This will count as "distressed" some which are merely suspended on a short-term technicality, and not count as "distressed" some where the sales queues are so long and slow-moving that they might as well be suspended. That measure also made a big leap yesterday, as a couple of loans to which I have unusually high exposure (DFL005 and DFL019) were suspended from trading.
Overall picture is that in order for me to make an overall net loss on the platform, assuming that losses on non-suspended live loans balance out against interest on all loans, it would take 100% loss on the "claims underway" and 41% loss on the loans currently suspended from trading. This seems a rather unlikely scenario (whilst some individual loans may well end up with losses over 40% when the security is sold, this seems far too pessimistic as an average), so I'll almost certainly end up with at least a net profit, and probably quite a bit more besides.
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invester
P2P Blogger
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Post by invester on Oct 18, 2018 9:50:18 GMT
I should have mentioned that distressed = loan part unable to be traded on secondary market. That seems a rather fair way of doing it, which doesn't need to use your own judgement. This also means that platforms can be compared.
Sure there will be some suspensions that could be temporary, but there are some where the issues are very serious and threaten very big losses.
I think on historic experience across the platforms it is fair to say that once a loan does get suspended, it tends to stay that way until it is resolved. There are probably few instances where a loan has been suspended, then that suspension rescinded and the loan goes on to perform without any other problems, although if this is more common I'd be happy to be corrected.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Oct 18, 2018 10:02:55 GMT
I think on historic experience across the platforms it is fair to say that once a loan does get suspended, it tends to stay that way until it is resolved. There are probably few instances where a loan has been suspended, then that suspension rescinded and the loan goes on to perform without any other problems, although if this is more common I'd be happy to be corrected. Some platforms routinely suspend loans from trading whenever a vote is taking place, and resume trading once the vote has been concluded in favour of [whatever the proposal was that allows the loan agreement to continue on good terms], or the moment any potentially adverse news is discovered (application for striking off, CCJ, etc.) until the situation can be clarified/resolved. I lose track of which platforms have which policies sometimes...
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orvilorvil
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Post by orvilorvil on Oct 18, 2018 10:22:03 GMT
211% for me. Started investing early 2017, sold out all loans that I could in early 2018, just stuck with the large duff ones- all DFL types.
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invester
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Post by invester on Oct 18, 2018 10:27:57 GMT
I think Funding Circle is the main one for that although it doesn't matter any more for them, and such you couldn't produce a figure for that. I do remember quite a few loans being downgraded on receipt of CCJ and then rating re-instated when it is cleared up.
On the rest of the platforms I am on loans are not stopped from trading without good reason.
I think a loan suspension is a good enough approximation even with slightly differing policies. By the time a vote has come (in the ones I have participated in) the loan has already been impaired: the vote being whether to accept this impairment now, or continue to proceed for full recovery, accepting that the risk to capital has increased from what it was before (which is also impairment).
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MarkT
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Post by MarkT on Oct 18, 2018 11:47:31 GMT
Joined SS in early 2017.
My distressed loans, the only loan parts I now hold, make up about 75% of the interest I have received.
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gareot
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Post by gareot on Oct 18, 2018 12:18:15 GMT
I joined SS in early 2016. I have 9 remaining loans on the platform two of which are still performing ( was three up until yesterday )  To break even I need to have 33.5% of my total gross interest returned. Methinks I should at least breaking even sometime in the future ( fingers & toes x ). |
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Oct 18, 2018 12:30:22 GMT
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Oct 18, 2018 13:24:30 GMT
Some shocking figures here. As mentioned before, the rates to lend here should have been 20-25%. To think they had the cheek to offer 9% loans.... The irony, of course, is that the 9% loans and below have all repaid (final one today ... few might have had rate bumps) with the exception of 2, a distressed sale and an on going saga. If you had invested in only low rate loans you potentially would have had a much better return than investments at a higher rate. There of course is one elephant in the room.
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Post by df on Oct 18, 2018 13:46:35 GMT
135.6% for me. Started investing on SS about 2 years ago.
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huxs
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Post by huxs on Oct 18, 2018 14:40:18 GMT
253% this morning 241% after the recent repayment, will be happy if it keeps falling at that rate. Been with them for 3.5 years
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bod
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Post by bod on Oct 18, 2018 14:45:00 GMT
110% for me but only been with Lendy just over a year. However 370% are overdue and subject to bonus interest. I fear several of these are likely to become.'distressed'.
Initially had autoinvest on - a big mistake.
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Post by balloonthief on Oct 18, 2018 15:57:31 GMT
Looking all my P2P loans on all sites I need an average of 60p to each £1 currently invested (Good and bad loans) just to break even.
I'm over exposed in some shockers and who knows what will happen with Col which will play a big part.
However this does seem achievable.
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To break even I need to have 33.5% of my total gross interest returned.
