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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 15, 2018 19:23:53 GMT
... the issue is tariffs and (I assume) NI/UK would not charge any tariffs to EU/ROI. If ROI are forced to charge tariffs to UK then once again that would be a ridiculous "shot in foot" decision taken elsewhere, by un-elected people that are neither British nor Irish, and would not last very long. Sorry but I can't fathom how one could take that view. It doesn't stand up to any logical test. Its not a question of what ROI/UK or even EU/UK or ROI/NI politicians might want, its a simple matter of fact arising from being in or out of a customs union.
You can't have the ROI de facto inside a customs union by having free movement of goods between it and an EU member state, without then having an internal customs border between NI and rest of UK.
Likewise you can't have free movement of goods between NI and rest of UK as if it is in the internal UK customs union, without have a customs "border" (however implemented) between NI and ROI.
Edit: It would make NI like some incarnation of Schrodinger's cat: it would be "in" the EU customs union and "out" of the UK customs union, while simultaneously being "out" of the EU customs union and "in" the UK customs union.
And probably from a legal and WTO rules view: a simpler perspective: free trade between NI and ROI = free trade between EU and a country outside of EU (since NI = UKI): therefore all WTO members can challenge to have the same privileges.
Car manufacture sets up in NI. Imports parts from both UK suppliers, and EU suppliers via ROI. Builds cars. Ships cars to UK inside the UK internal market. Exports cars to ROI for onward movement to other EU countries within the EU customs union. Cars going to EU containing UK parts which have not been subject to EU-UK customs tarrifs. Cars going to UK containing EU parts which have not been subject to EU-UK custom tarriffs.
If ever that particular rabbit was ever pulled out of a hat, I think I would immediately give up my job to invest in an import / export business in NI.
This issue and the impact on NI/ROI border arrangements (and its potential implications for the peace process in NI because of the Good Friday agreement requirements) has always been there. It can't be magiked away. [Edit] Putting it another way, its simply not even within the 'gift' of EU politicians to allow this even if they were slightly inclined to want to do so.
Edit: correcting some typos etc.
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Nov 15, 2018 20:00:09 GMT
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Nov 15, 2018 21:38:56 GMT
Stop wringing your hands. Opportunists now's your chance. Countries want our market and the EU will fall apart like a tangerine. Roll on Christmas.
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Post by mrclondon on Nov 15, 2018 22:23:33 GMT
Too much "politics" in the media, and too little "analysis" to my mind.
Whilst the following report is obviously not published by a neutral body, it does contain a more detailed analysis of the draft withdrawal agreement than the MSM.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 15, 2018 22:34:59 GMT
Stop wringing your hands. Opportunists now's your chance. Countries want our market and the EU will fall apart like a tangerine. Roll on Christmas. Agree. The EU is a project that's almost certain to fail. From the start it's been about the creation of a United States of Europe, albeit not that united as the French and Germans will expect to control it (they've both been making statements recently about the need for an EU army and a single EU budget). Irrelevant whether people in the UK think that would be a good or bad idea. Go and ask the eastern EU states if they'll accept liberal social views like gay marriage or mass immigration. Then ask the Italians if they'll accept a budget set by the EU. Pigs will fly before they happen or each EU country being treated as equals. Might also ask Germany to do some debt forgiveness for Greece.
I found it interesting during the referendum that the Remoaners were very ready to say (correctly) that Leavers couldn't specify how the future would look, but failed to admit they have no idea how the EU will look in 10 or 20 years.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Nov 15, 2018 23:42:52 GMT
I think the vast majority of the population outside NI don't give a jot if there is a hard border between NI and the south.
And the south now have no interest in reunification.
Brexit to satisfy all is impossible no matter what there will be splits too close to be definative.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 16, 2018 9:23:06 GMT
I think the vast majority of the population outside NI don't give a jot if there is a hard border between NI and the south.
And the south now have no interest in reunification.
Brexit to satisfy all is impossible no matter what there will be splits too close to be definative. What I find odd about the situation regarding Ireland/NI is that if the UK ends up with no deal due to the intransigence of the EU, we may have some economic difficulties for a while but I think Ireland will be well and truly screwed economically.
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dandy
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Post by dandy on Nov 16, 2018 10:35:10 GMT
... the issue is tariffs and (I assume) NI/UK would not charge any tariffs to EU/ROI. If ROI are forced to charge tariffs to UK then once again that would be a ridiculous "shot in foot" decision taken elsewhere, by un-elected people that are neither British nor Irish, and would not last very long. Sorry but I can't fathom how one could take that view. It doesn't stand up to any logical test. Its not a question of what ROI/UK or even EU/UK or ROI/NI politicians might want, its a simple matter of fact arising from being in or out of a customs union.
You can't have the ROI de facto inside a customs union by having free movement of goods between it and an EU member state, without then having an internal customs border between NI and rest of UK.
Likewise you can't have free movement of goods between NI and rest of UK as if it is in the internal UK customs union, without have a customs "border" (however implemented) between NI and ROI.
Edit: It would make NI like some incarnation of Schrodinger's cat: it would be "in" the EU customs union and "out" of the UK customs union, while simultaneously being "out" of the EU customs union and "in" the UK customs union.
And probably from a legal and WTO rules view: a simpler perspective: free trade between NI and ROI = free trade between EU and a country outside of EU (since NI = UKI): therefore all WTO members can challenge to have the same privileges.
Car manufacture sets up in NI. Imports parts from both UK suppliers, and EU suppliers via ROI. Builds cars. Ships cars to UK inside the UK internal market. Exports cars to ROI for onward movement to other EU countries within the EU customs union. Cars going to EU containing UK parts which have not been subject to EU-UK customs tarrifs. Cars going to UK containing EU parts which have not been subject to EU-UK custom tarriffs.
If ever that particular rabbit was ever pulled out of a hat, I think I would immediately give up my job to invest in an import / export business in NI.
This issue and the impact on NI/ROI border arrangements (and its potential implications for the peace process in NI because of the Good Friday agreement requirements) has always been there. It can't be magiked away. [Edit] Putting it another way, its simply not even within the 'gift' of EU politicians to allow this even if they were slightly inclined to want to do so.
Edit: correcting some typos etc.
Hi I dont really understand any part of what you have written or what your points are other than that no deal apparently means a hard border is guaranteed - to which I would simply refer you to the Common Travel Area the rationale for which would inevitably be applied to goods and services also probably from the get go The biggest problem with all this is that the electorate voted to LEAVE - yet MPs and Business overwhelmingly wanted to remain. So we are now seeing a deal which basically says very simply that in the UK the way we roll is that MP's + Business > Electorate
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 16, 2018 11:01:36 GMT
"..has her deal satisfied any group of voters at all? The EU has been offered everything its heart desires: £39 billion, guaranteed citizenship rights, a backstop for Northern Ireland and Britain in the customs union. Brussels is pleased, but when one steps back and looks at the whole picture, what Mrs May has put on the table seems calculated to displease all sides at home. Britain will still be in the Customs Union; it will take rules without influencing them; Northern Ireland will be treated differently; the country will endure this for an indefinite period; and the UK cannot walk away unless the EU agrees to it."
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sqh
Member of DD Central
Before P2P, savers put a guinea in a piggy bank, now they smash the banks to become guinea pigs.
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Post by sqh on Nov 16, 2018 11:38:12 GMT
"..has her deal satisfied any group of voters at all? The EU has been offered everything its heart desires: £39 billion, guaranteed citizenship rights, a backstop for Northern Ireland and Britain in the customs union.
........and an obscene amount of British pounds until the EU say we can leave the Custom's Union. Currently, that is Eight Thousand Six Hundred million pounds per year. Don't think the EU will want to give that up, without another brown paper envelope container lorry.
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Nov 16, 2018 11:50:28 GMT
No, no, no.
We are reaching a political and constitutional crisis and it is in times like these that true leaders emerge, cometh the hour cometh the (wo)man.
I'm backing Penny Mordaunt to dive in and steer us safely home.
#PMforPM
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 16, 2018 11:53:19 GMT
Some good news from the BBC (maybe). Their best guess is that May is short of 78 votes to get it through. Not surprising with -some Tory MPs against it -DUP against it -SNP against it -Labour against it -LibDems against it
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 16, 2018 12:19:09 GMT
The Electorate didn't vote for no deal (the Leave campaign were very clear that there would be a deal, and that it would be easy). Parliament won't accept no deal. If you think there's a better deal than May's, say exactly how - without wishful thinking and asking for having cake and eating it, and specifying precisely which compromises are you willing to take and the consequences of those. So far no one has come up with a better deal. I for one would have said a Norway is the closest to a totally split electorate (was 52-48, now probably 54-46 the other way, but it is split however you look at it), but that has been rejected. Silly really - in a Norway we'd be in a much better position to negotiate over time a Canada+++ - but there you are. So failing any other realistic scenario (still waiting), it's either May's deal or Remain (perhaps via an election or another referendum or an emergency Parliamentary resolution as March 29th approaches and there is still deadlock). Ignore the bluster, there will not be a No Deal.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 16, 2018 12:29:49 GMT
Parliament won't accept no deal. If parliament fails to agree this deal (which seems likely) and any other 'proper' deal, why won't the default be a no deal even without explicit approval of MPs?
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 16, 2018 12:39:37 GMT
Parliament won't accept no deal. If parliament fails to agree this deal (which seems likely) and any other 'proper' deal, why won't the default be a no deal even without explicit approval of MPs?
Because Parliament won' t allow no deal - huge majority against that. How they do it we will see if it comes to pass - could be via extending article 50, having a general election, having a referendum on the deal etc.
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