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Post by captainconfident on Apr 30, 2019 14:59:38 GMT
I can't help but think this could be the ultimate irony in that David Cameron's cynical attempt to keep the Tory party together and ward off UKIP by offering an ill-conceived referendum may instead have opened Pandora's box and heralded the end of the Tory party. True enough and the closer May moves the Tories towards/into a Customs Union, especially with Labour support, the more Tory Leave voters will move to Brexit/UKIP. Yes but it's a single issue party in a vaguely unimportant election. When the Brexit Party tries to contest a General Election, lack of mass appeal policies coupled with the crippling electoral system will see them with 0 MPs and all will be back to where we started.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 30, 2019 15:06:38 GMT
True enough and the closer May moves the Tories towards/into a Customs Union, especially with Labour support, the more Tory Leave voters will move to Brexit/UKIP. Yes but it's a single issue party in a vaguely unimportant election. When the Brexit Party tries to contest a General Election, lack of mass appeal policies coupled with the crippling electoral system will see them with 0 MPs and all will be back to where we started. Re GE, UKIP have a fuller manifesto, not sure the Brexit party has one currently (no need for me to check), but they'll both be reducing the Tory vote. That will decrease the chance of the Tories getting anywhere near an overall majority or even in a position to form a coalition, hence probably won't be "back to where we started". More likely to get Labour/SNP coalition.
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 30, 2019 15:21:44 GMT
Yes but it's a single issue party in a vaguely unimportant election. When the Brexit Party tries to contest a General Election, lack of mass appeal policies coupled with the crippling electoral system will see them with 0 MPs and all will be back to where we started. Re GE, UKIP have a fuller manifesto, not sure the Brexit party has one currently (no need for me to check), but they'll both be reducing the Tory vote. That will decrease the chance of the Tories getting anywhere near an overall majority or even in a position to form a coalition, hence probably won't be "back to where we started". More likely to get Labour/SNP coalition.
A Labour/SNP plus coalition might be formable, but you have to bear in mind that the Labour party is currently in the hands of zealots whose mission is "to remake society". These types find it very hard to make the compromises necessary to form a coalition with cooler headed centre ground politicians. Probably take months of negotiation leaving the country rudderless. Although that would be nothing we arn't used to, eh.
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jo
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Post by jo on Apr 30, 2019 15:34:22 GMT
The banter heuristic currently asserts that Corbyn will be next PM.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 30, 2019 16:55:31 GMT
True enough and the closer May moves the Tories towards/into a Customs Union, especially with Labour support, the more Tory Leave voters will move to Brexit/UKIP. And that includes their MPs. Meanwhile, Labour have taken another step closer to break-up, too, with their manifesto fudge.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Apr 30, 2019 17:22:51 GMT
True enough and the closer May moves the Tories towards/into a Customs Union, especially with Labour support, the more Tory Leave voters will move to Brexit/UKIP. And that includes their MPs. Meanwhile, Labour have taken another step closer to break-up, too, with their manifesto fudge. And the UK has also moved closer to breaking up. Amazing what damage a referendum can do.
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Post by captainconfident on May 3, 2019 15:42:56 GMT
Re GE, UKIP have a fuller manifesto, not sure the Brexit party has one currently (no need for me to check), but they'll both be reducing the Tory vote. That will decrease the chance of the Tories getting anywhere near an overall majority or even in a position to form a coalition, hence probably won't be "back to where we started". More likely to get Labour/SNP coalition.
A Labour/SNP plus coalition might be formable, but you have to bear in mind that the Labour party is currently in the hands of zealots whose mission is "to remake society". These types find it very hard to make the compromises necessary to form a coalition with cooler headed centre ground politicians. Probably take months of negotiation leaving the country rudderless. Although that would be nothing we arn't used to, eh. Thinking this over, and with a guess that the Lib Dems pick up 30-40 seats in the GE, I foresee more problems in coalition forming. The Lib Dems are not going to have forgotten the kicking they got after they governed as a junior partner to mild Mr. Cameron. Imagine how they would see their future if they helped Jeremy Corbyn limp into office. I don't think they would agree to ally with such a controversial politician in fear of the revenge of the electorate. I would expect the Lib Dems to make two core conditions on governing with the Labour Party, the first being resignation of the leader in favour of someone more tolerable to them like Yvette Cooper or Tom Watson, on top of statutory reform of the voting system without a referendum. However Corbyn would be in a weak position at this point if the Socialist Vision has not translated into a solid majority.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 3, 2019 16:29:15 GMT
A Labour/SNP plus coalition might be formable, but you have to bear in mind that the Labour party is currently in the hands of zealots whose mission is "to remake society". These types find it very hard to make the compromises necessary to form a coalition with cooler headed centre ground politicians. Probably take months of negotiation leaving the country rudderless. Although that would be nothing we arn't used to, eh. Thinking this over, and with a guess that the Lib Dems pick up 30-40 seats in the GE, I foresee more problems in coalition forming. The Lib Dems are not going to have forgotten the kicking they got after they governed as a junior partner to mild Mr. Cameron. Imagine how they would see their future if they helped Jeremy Corbyn limp into office. I don't think they would agree to ally with such a controversial politician in fear of the revenge of the electorate. I would expect the Lib Dems to make two core conditions on governing with the Labour Party, the first being resignation of the leader in favour of someone more tolerable to them like Yvette Cooper or Tom Watson, on top of statutory reform of the voting system without a referendum. However Corbyn would be in a weak position at this point if the Socialist Vision has not translated into a solid majority. I doubt they would go into a coalition - confidence and supply more likely.
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Post by captainconfident on May 3, 2019 17:13:47 GMT
Confidence and supply works if you are a few seats short of an overall majority but what if both main parties are well short? Quite likely in current circumstances and not possible to govern without a coalition from that position because your C&S parties would only be covering in votes of confidence and other bare essentials. To get your Queens Speech programme through would be practically impossible.
In such a case, a second GE is unlikely to solve anything so a broad coalition is the only way forward.
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Post by martin44 on May 3, 2019 21:20:48 GMT
Cannot now see anything significant happening prior to may 23rd... the brexit party will really screw things up after that...
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 4, 2019 7:22:31 GMT
Confidence and supply works if you are a few seats short of an overall majority but what if both main parties are well short? Quite likely in current circumstances and not possible to govern without a coalition from that position because your C&S parties would only be covering in votes of confidence and other bare essentials. To get your Queens Speech programme through would be practically impossible. In such a case, a second GE is unlikely to solve anything so a broad coalition is the only way forward. or a minority government, for a shorter than usual Parliament coalitions will prove difficult I think until there is a change in culture and change in electoral system, and we get more used to governments more proportionally representative of voters the two party system is nearing the end of its useful life
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Post by bracknellboy on May 22, 2019 15:43:12 GMT
Its increasingly looking like the end of May could come a few days early this year...
A possible scenario:
- May goes - New leadership rushed through and is a hard brexit/no deal brexit champion [that is almost a no-brainer provided they can get through the parliamentary party selection bit] - GE election forced by new PM: running on a re-negotiate or no deal brexit [on perception that if anything can be deduced from the local and european elections, its that this is what the electorate want ] and therefore this is the vote winning strategy - beyond that, god knows. Other than: - New HOC speaker voted in: its not John Bercow
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 22, 2019 20:39:58 GMT
- New HOC speaker voted in: its not John Bercow It's Labour's turn in the Speaker's chair... Yes, Boothroyd was followed by Martin - both Labour - but the Tories made such a lot of noise then about how the tradition of alternating must be respected that they're going to look a bit foolishly hypocritical now if they try... Ah. Yes. Right. As you were. Sorry.
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Post by captainconfident on May 23, 2019 11:30:31 GMT
Now the genie is out of the box, I think it's best to see the Brexit issue decided one way or the other. But the choices are between a no deal Brexit and staying in. The EU are not about to reopen negotiations, I think they've had enough. So it's either the unambiguous answer of an in-no deal referendum, or the muffled megaphone of the 1st past the post GE, which will see a vast number of voters disenfranchised with the parties they voted for getting little or no representation. Then the issue might find a decisive majority one way or the other but would not be able ro revoke A50 or pull us out of the EU with anything like a mandate to do so, just a cobbled together coalition. Fine obituary to the May era and clear explanation as to what went wrong here:- chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/theresa-mays-demise_24.html?m=1
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