IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Jan 25, 2019 12:51:32 GMT
And in other news, interesting that IDS supported a motion for a second referendum in Scotland once the details of the Scottish Parliament had been finalised. After an overwhelming vote in the first referendum.
Compare and contrast with his position on a referendum to ratify the EU withdrawal agreement once finalised, after a knife edge referendum result.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Jan 25, 2019 12:52:37 GMT
Problem with that is that the HoC has a huge Remain majority, so they'd just say "job done, we're not going to work to agree 'something better', we'll just remain".
I'd be in favour of a General Election. Would force the parties to say where they stand on Brexit and would clear out a good few MPs who are out-of-synch with their electorate.
If that happened and the electorate was unhappy, they'd pay the price at the ballot box. I'd be happier with a GE if the electoral system was better, but I think we agree on that issue. Agree the first point ("they'd pay the price at the ballot box"), so let's have a GE. Unfortunately, I think it would bring in a Labour government.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Jan 25, 2019 12:54:21 GMT
If that happened and the electorate was unhappy, they'd pay the price at the ballot box. I'd be happier with a GE if the electoral system was better, but I think we agree on that issue. Agree the first point ("they'd pay the price at the ballot box"), so let's have a GE. Unfortunately, I think it would bring in a Labour government.
Which with this Labour leadership would be undesirable. I'm afraid the Tories have really messed up this time, putting party above country.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Jan 25, 2019 12:56:20 GMT
Agree the first point ("they'd pay the price at the ballot box"), so let's have a GE. Unfortunately, I think it would bring in a Labour government.
Which with this Labour leadership would be undesirable. I'm afraid the Tories have really messed up this time, putting party above country. Labour - Yes, though JC has played Brexit fairly well by making no firm statements. To date he's managed to keep each Labour party faction thinking he supports their view.
Might do the Tories some good to be out of government for a while. Bring them back to their roots as a low-tax centre-right party, which they're not currently imo. Brexit aside, I think they're pretty much incompetent in all areas.
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"A senior ally of Jeremy Corbyn has said holding a second EU referendum could badly affect the relationship between politicians and the public, as a series of Labour backbenchers tabled new amendments seeking such an option.
Ian Lavery, a Labour MP who is also the party’s national campaigns coordinator, said that while the possibility of a second referendum should be maintained as a way to end an otherwise intractable Brexit impasse, he was worried about the consequences."
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Post by captainconfident on Jan 25, 2019 14:23:31 GMT
I didn't say it was impossible. But if you want no border from the UK side that's no customs checks, that's zero tariffs, and that has to be applied to all other countries under WTO (and yes another country WILL complain) and that's further devastation to the economy (especially agriculture and manufacturing). A brave choice for the government to make. And if we have given free trade to all other countries - um - where is our leverage to negotiate FTAs? And then there's what the EU would do after a no deal exit, over which we have zero control. It IS a problem, and no deal advocates choose to ignore it with sophistry. This was what was discussed on This Week yesterday. A WTO Brexit was proposed as being the answer to all our problems by journalist James Delingpole, who then came under questioning from Andrew Neil. Everything you need to know about a WTO brexit is here. www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgXCKqdtBXUDo watch it if you missed it - it's comedy gold!
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Post by captainconfident on Jan 25, 2019 16:14:47 GMT
Tell you what though, Brexit fans, this Cooper Bowles amendment, to 'force a vote by MPs to request an extension [to article 50] on Brexit day if an agreement has not been voted through by February 26'. But according to this, theconversation.com/brexit-how-article-50-could-be-extended-to-delay-uks-departure-from-the-eu-109966an extension to Article 50 is a sketchy request needing legislative change both to UK law and with agreement of all 27 member states. There are many potential slip-ups here which could leave us experiencing the WTO future. If nothing else, the government has achieved a reckless full speed charge towards the buffers at the end of the track.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jan 25, 2019 16:32:08 GMT
Right now I think the chances of us having a no-deal Brexit are approaching certainty.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Jan 25, 2019 16:39:08 GMT
Right now I think the chances of us having a no-deal Brexit are approaching certainty. I think the chances are rather less overall, but the risk of "accidentally" getting there are rising exponentially.
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Post by captainconfident on Jan 25, 2019 16:49:18 GMT
Right now I think the chances of us having a no-deal Brexit are approaching certainty. I think the chances are rather less overall, but the risk of "accidentally" getting there are rising exponentially. Yes, I think there is a potential for a consensus to form for some kind of customs union lite, but to run out of time. The only certain and promised extension of article 50 offered by the EU was for a general election or a new referendum. One can assume that faced with running out of time, the government could pull the plug and go for an election, or the parliament could try to force a referendum, although the mechanism for a new referendum is not clear to me if the gov. stands against it. Just to vent steam a bit, this situation is really reprehensible. If the Tories lose to Jeremy Corbyn it will be their own fault. Call themselves the Party of Business? British businesses have been held out to dry by this combination of poor negotiation skills and lack of imagination or urgency.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Jan 25, 2019 17:10:14 GMT
I think the chances are rather less overall, but the risk of "accidentally" getting there are rising exponentially. Yes, I think there is a potential for a consensus to form for some kind of customs union lite, but to run out of time. The only certain and promised extension of article 50 offered by the EU was for a general election or a new referendum. One can assume that faced with running out of time, the government could pull the plug and go for an election, or the parliament could try to force a referendum, although the mechanism for a new referendum is not clear to me if the gov. stands against it. EU could hold gun to our head - we will only allow A50 extension if you authorise GE or referendum. Otherwise it's no deal and you take your chances. Having said that, since we are holding a gun to our own head, perhaps they don't need to do anything.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Jan 25, 2019 19:25:58 GMT
Right now I think the chances of us having a no-deal Brexit are approaching certainty. GOOD !!!!! I’ve just heard something that shows Britain’s entrepreneurs are alive and kicking. Someone is selling “Brexit survival packs” they included the necessities to live for six months with freeze dried food etc good for 25 years . For all those who think you won’t be able to buy anything if we leave without a deal. If they buy that I’ve a few nice P2P loans the can have, they are great value the platforms have been looking after them tenderly for a couple of years.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jan 25, 2019 21:42:49 GMT
How about we have a no deal brexit, and then TM calls an election so that JC wins power and has to sort the mess out?
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Post by dobbo on Jan 25, 2019 23:25:59 GMT
Is no deal possible and necessarily possible to get a decent agreement? Even if it was for less than a week, it would show that we'd be prepared to walk away from a bad deal. Seems to me that the idea we can't walk away is what's keeping us tied to a bad deal.
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Post by captainconfident on Jan 27, 2019 12:46:11 GMT
I notice the figure given by the Department for Exiting the European Union for No Deal Brexit contingences is 4 Billion Pounds. The Economist calculated that the amount needed to properly fund Universal Credit so that it would work as designed, to provide a tapering of benefits as wages for those in work but low paid rise, was 6 billion pounds.
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dandy
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Post by dandy on Jan 28, 2019 10:58:52 GMT
Right now I think the chances of us having a no-deal Brexit are approaching certainty. That is what the govt is trying to make everyone think. But very soon, MPs will have to decide to vote for her deal or effectively vote against it and thereby vote for no deal. So MPs like corbyn, cable, cooper and all the other pathetic whiner losers in Parliament will need to make their choice. Deal or no deal.
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