|
Post by erniec on Dec 21, 2018 9:37:56 GMT
Zopa tell us what our expected return is but I’m sure many of us don’t believe the number. Mrs C and I have suggested rates between 4.7% and 4.9% in our four accounts, all Plus, both non-ISA and ISA. I guess the only way to get a believable number is to take the value of an account at a date and again a year later and calculate an ‘interest rate’ based on that. Of course, that requires the account to have been ‘static’ over that period - no new money from outside the account and no withdrawals. For many, myself included, this is an unlikely scenario but Mrs C and I have not added or removed since 1 July so I’ve started on a simple graph which gives a reasonable view of where our returns are going. The calculations are simple and based on ‘annualising’ return received over a particular period. For example, the September figure takes the return over the three months July to September and multiplies it by 4. Here is the graph so far, part way through December. Projections beyond December assume no return in those months and so represent the minimum projection.
|
|
|
Post by Ace on Dec 21, 2018 9:56:42 GMT
A very simple, and more accurate, measure is the XIRR. There's a function in most spreadsheets to do this. All you need to know is all payments between your p2p account and bank account, with dates, and your current balance. There's a useful post on how to do this here
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,500
Likes: 924
|
Post by aju on Dec 21, 2018 10:25:19 GMT
A very simple, and more accurate, measure is the XIRR. There's a function in most spreadsheets to do this. All you need to know is all payments between your p2p account and bank account, with dates, and your current balance. There's a useful post on how to do this hereI agree xirr is the best, but, and its quite a big but. There are bugs in Excel that sometimes throw the irr functions out quite a bit, in my experience so far using it though it is very noticeable, the same error is in online versions as well not just with excel. That said i have my spreadsheets using a rolling xirr function that works quite well for me. Every now and again it throws a rate of 12.5% or more instead of the more normal 3-5% but mostly it shows we are not doing as well as Zopa might suggest for example Mrs aju's ISA is showing 3.98% xirr but zopa says higher. We are lending at a plus/rest ratio of 20/80 and she does have quite a high sg cover too. The bugs are quite well documented online and so far have never been fixed!. That said it works well for me. I do also use monthly interest extrapolation to corroborate my figures but recently with reinvesting invest returns into ISA it makes the monthlies a bit harder. Xirr works better in that scenario. I usually use the tax year figures but like you this year has been a bit of a awkward one with all the re-investment etc.
|
|
|
Post by erniec on Dec 21, 2018 11:56:07 GMT
Thank you for comments so far. It would appear that Numbers, the Apple spreadsheet product, doesn’t have this XIRR function. It does have one called IRR so I’ll have to see if it is usable for this purpose. If not then no great loss as I’m comfortable with my current method for getting a gross comparison between my returns and those suggested by Zopa. Zopa do keep promising that they are going to provide tools some time and I hope this most basic of requirements will be covered.
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,500
Likes: 924
|
Post by aju on Dec 21, 2018 12:14:36 GMT
Thank you for comments so far. It would appear that Numbers, the Apple spreadsheet product, doesn’t have this XIRR function. It does have one called IRR so I’ll have to see if it is usable for this purpose. If not then no great loss as I’m comfortable with my current method for getting a gross comparison between my returns and those suggested by Zopa. Zopa do keep promising that they are going to provide tools some time and I hope this most basic of requirements will be covered. xirr and irr are similar except that xirr works for all dates whereas irr uses fixed months - I think that's right I haven't used it for a long time. If it were the case you could make an assumption of all dates starting on the 1st of the month say but you would have to read up on it to be certain. This will of course skew things slightly especially if it was relend from invest to ISA but to be honest it probably wouldn't matter too much. I'd still be using the monthly interest and multiplying out by 12 and then averaging as a guide check though.
|
|
cb25
Posts: 3,528
Likes: 2,668
|
Post by cb25 on Dec 21, 2018 12:44:29 GMT
XIRR on my Z+ non-ISA account gives -5.83% (minus!), though quite a lot of fees due to running the account down due to poor results even before fees hit it. XIRR on my AC account is within 0.01% of what AC quote it as.
|
|
|
Post by ingenue on Dec 23, 2018 1:09:53 GMT
The following may be completely wrong or completely obvious. But consider a zopa account opened with a given balance on a given date and holding a new given balance on some subsequent date with various deposits and/or withdrawals made during the intervening period. Must there not be some, unique, fixed interest rate which if applied to the account throughout the relevant period would result in the same final balance? Is that a useful number? Is it possible to calculate it? Is it similar to XIRR/IRR?
On a broader note it seems indefensible that zopa while happy to provide headline and target interest rates can provide no measure of 'effective' interest rate to date on a particular account. I appreciate that that rate may evolve with time, and zopa may be wary of alarming customers with natural dips correlated with the timings of defaults. But hiding the rate is bordering on sharp practice: 'give us your money and we'll never tell you what interest rate you got'.
|
|
|
Post by spareapennyor2 on Dec 23, 2018 6:50:14 GMT
|
|
|
Post by ingenue on Dec 23, 2018 12:20:57 GMT
jaan, spareapennyor2,
Thank you.
|
|
Greenwood2
Member of DD Central
Posts: 4,377
Likes: 2,780
|
Post by Greenwood2 on Dec 24, 2018 8:03:04 GMT
I just do a monthly calculation (Interest-losses+recoveries in the month)/(Average amount in the account in the month) X 100 for percent x 12 for yearly equivalent, it's not exact but it's easy to do. Then track monthly changes.
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,500
Likes: 924
|
Post by aju on Dec 24, 2018 9:09:46 GMT
I just do a monthly calculation (Interest-losses+recoveries in the month)/(Average amount in the account in the month) X 100 for percent x 12 for yearly equivalent, it's not exact but it's easy to do. Then track monthly changes. I do similar to this too, i use it with xirr as well as i'ts less susceptible to errors that sometime plague xirr i find. i also do a rolling annual as well and at end of tax year i use tax year statement but this year it will somewhat skewed with my isa transfers and invest to isa movements so xirr will be needed.
|
|
|
Post by Ace on Dec 24, 2018 10:03:01 GMT
I just do a monthly calculation (Interest-losses+recoveries in the month)/(Average amount in the account in the month) X 100 for percent x 12 for yearly equivalent, it's not exact but it's easy to do. Then track monthly changes. I do similar to this too, i use it with xirr as well as i'ts less susceptible to errors that sometime plague xirr i find. i also do a rolling annual as well and at end of tax year i use tax year statement but this year it will somewhat skewed with my isa transfers and invest to isa movements so xirr will be needed. aju, out of interest (no pun intended), do you have an example of an XIRR that contains an error? I had a quick search online and didn't notice any that weren't most likely due to user error. For what it's worth, my current Zopa XIRR is 5.77%.
|
|
|
Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 24, 2018 10:26:52 GMT
I've personally never caught XIRR in an error, although GIGO is definitely true. I suspect it iterates to a solution, which is what I used to do the hard way ..i.e. guess a return, calculate what the balance should be if that was the return, adjust the guess based on the error between what the balance should be and what it actually is, lubricate and repeat until the error is small enough to ignore (my idea of small enough, not AC's femtopence). I imagine XIRR does the same, only with the workings hidden (and rather faster).
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,500
Likes: 924
|
Post by aju on Dec 24, 2018 18:17:59 GMT
I do similar to this too, i use it with xirr as well as i'ts less susceptible to errors that sometime plague xirr i find. i also do a rolling annual as well and at end of tax year i use tax year statement but this year it will somewhat skewed with my isa transfers and invest to isa movements so xirr will be needed. aju , out of interest (no pun intended), do you have an example of an XIRR that contains an error? I had a quick search online and didn't notice any that weren't most likely due to user error. For what it's worth, my current Zopa XIRR is 5.77%. Try this YT video, it's a tad technical and I had to try it across a number of excel like systems as well as excel where most failed. I guess it depends what functions they are using under the various hoods. To say this stuff is hard sums is a bit of an understatement. A look at Excel's XIRR function
Not sure if he's actually correct, its very fast and I had to wind it back and forth to stay with it. There are many other places across the web that similar issues and errors using different values. Just search "XIRR and excel errors". This guy does seem to correctly check it against other functions to show its in error each time. Edit: I did another check and found my error in my data so my example is not valid. The YT ones show the error though
<snipped my data was invalid>
Of course anyone happy to accept XIRR at face value is perfectly ok to do so, it's just that it could lead one into a false sense of security or worse the garden path just keeps going on and on and the expected return never arrives! HTH and at worse confuses the heck out of anyone trying to prove it one way or another
|
|
|
Post by Ace on Dec 25, 2018 1:05:20 GMT
Many thanks for your reply aju. I tried the same examples in Google sheets on android, which is what I usually use, and only 2 out of the 5 examples came out correct. I have verified that the XIRR for my Zopa fund is correct, which was trivial to verify since I've only made a single deposit and no withdrawals. Not sure what to do about verifying the figures for the platforms where I have a more complicated transaction log. I need to find some time to investigate further. For now I'll just do some sanity checks to make sure the answers are in the right ballpark. (Was so tempted to make a 'sanity clause. joke there, given the date 🎅). At least the errors in the link you gave were so far out that they would be easily spotted, but can't guarantee that more subtle errors are not possible. Happy Christmas 🎄
|
|