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Post by gravitykillz on Dec 22, 2018 11:44:52 GMT
Has anyone noticed the ftse recently ? Prices have fallen dramatically! Almost similar to 2008. Maybe we are in a recession and we don't know it ?
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aju
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Post by aju on Dec 22, 2018 14:06:58 GMT
Google Says"In the United Kingdom and all other EU member states, a recession is generally defined as two successive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for real GDP. ... UK came off gold standard Sept 1931. 3-5% deflation pa. UK much less affected than US.
"List of recessions in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia
As far as this site suggests it would seem not. In fact the figures here suggest GDP is rising in the last 3 quarters. Down here on the streets of our wiltshire county town one could be forgiven for thinking like you though.
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Post by gravitykillz on Dec 22, 2018 16:17:25 GMT
Ok let me redefine as the beginning of bad sh*t!!
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Post by mrclondon on Dec 22, 2018 16:51:41 GMT
Has anyone noticed the ftse recently ? Prices have fallen dramatically! Almost similar to 2008. Maybe we are in a recession and we don't know it ?
Erm ... FTSE100 has recently dropped slightly below its value at the end of March this year, at a time when the main preoccupation on the markets is the US government shutdown and the resignation of the US defense secretary ... compare the FTSE100 chart to that of the DJI, and you will see a very close correlation.
FTSE250 / Small Cap Indices down rather more than the FTSE100 (15% vs 12%) since the beginning of the year.
Nothing dramatic that I can see, beyond a US president struggling to implement the main policy initiative he was elected to deliver. (Oh, and a UK PM ditto)
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Doc
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Post by Doc on Dec 22, 2018 22:26:32 GMT
Has anyone noticed the ftse recently ? Prices have fallen dramatically! Almost similar to 2008. Maybe we are in a recession and we don't know it ?
... looks bad 
... but then again 
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scc
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Post by scc on Dec 23, 2018 5:47:53 GMT
Arguably, we never really left the previous one. Interest rates are still historically very low and the other "emergency" measures are still in place as far as I know. The systemic risks are still huge - especially in terms of the credit bubble. There's still lots of zombie companies, even countries, which are being allowed to stumble on.
But by official measures, no we are not in a recession.
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mjc
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Post by mjc on Dec 23, 2018 7:38:17 GMT
Could go either way, it’s in flux now. By next Christmas it may be 8000 or between 4000 and 5000 if.......
QE/Credit bubble bursts, Brexit goes bad, JC gets in, Euro goes pop, Trump is impeached - or stays in........
100 is at 6721 this weekend, but Nasdaq dropped 3% on Friday - mainly after UK closed flat.
So what for p2p, residential and commercial property values?
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Post by charlata on Dec 23, 2018 10:54:30 GMT
A number of people saying we are not in a recession, but unless they have a crystal ball, we will only know this when the data for the first quarter of 2019 are released. But the answer probably is no, not yet.
Many of the indicators that have preceded previous recessions are in the danger zone. Markets are now pricing in a recession in 2019 or 2020. This has manifested itself as a sell off in risk assets, and widening credit spreads (between govt bonds and riskier debt). Tie this up with an American administration that's piling up debt to turbo-charge a late cycle boom, and the omens don't look good. The markets can be wrong, but if they're right it can only end badly for P2P loans. Of course this only begs the perennial question of where else to put it, but cash looks increasingly attractive.
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Post by mrclondon on Dec 23, 2018 11:03:42 GMT
A grim article in the Guardian today on President Trump and foreign policy - even threatening to veto a UK led initiative in the UN security council - unheard of previously.
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Post by captainconfident on Dec 23, 2018 11:12:09 GMT
A grim article in the Guardian today on President Trump and foreign policy - even threatening to veto a UK led initiative in the UN security council - unheard of previously.
I had you down as a Telegraph man, mrc.
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Post by mrclondon on Dec 23, 2018 11:21:45 GMT
A grim article in the Guardian today on President Trump and foreign policy - even threatening to veto a UK led initiative in the UN security council - unheard of previously.
I had you down as a Telegraph man, mrc . At present the quality of The Guardian's journalism is far above the rest of the media outlets, and whilst I may not agree with their politcal leanings, I learn more from them than others. It is important to read material from those with opposing political beliefs to avoid re-inforcement bias. (I've just posted a Telegraph link on another thread for balance ! )
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Post by captainconfident on Dec 23, 2018 11:51:09 GMT
I had you down as a Telegraph man, mrc . At present the quality of The Guardian's journalism is far above the rest of the media outlets, and whilst I may not agree with their politcal leanings, I learn more from them than others. It is important to read material from those with opposing political beliefs to avoid re-inforcement bias. (I've just posted a Telegraph link on another thread for balance ! ) I've read the article now. I recommend it. “The world must also come to grips with the fact that we have placed an inordinate amount of faith in the ability of individual leaders to behave rationally". www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/21/james-mattis-resignation-trump-erdogan-phone-callShocking to see the Kurds who have done the fighting against ISIS abandoned. “As soon as the US folds its tent and leaves [Syria], Turkey will immediately begin an air bombardment followed by a ground attack by the [Ankara-backed] Free Syrian army. Thousands will die, thousands will be displaced and will be given no haven within Syria. They will be turned away at the Turkish border,” said David Phillips, a former senior state department official, and the author of the new book: The Great Betrayal: How America Abandoned the Kurds and Lost the Middle East.
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scc
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Post by scc on Dec 23, 2018 14:01:30 GMT
I had you down as a Telegraph man, mrc . At present the quality of The Guardian's journalism is far above the rest of the media outlets, and whilst I may not agree with their politcal leanings, I learn more from them than others. It is important to read material from those with opposing political beliefs to avoid re-inforcement bias. (I've just posted a Telegraph link on another thread for balance ! ) Just to echo this. I wouldn’t rate the Guardian that highly, also try to make sure I read opposing views to my own. The Telegraph and the Guardian fulfils that role for me. Both have suffered from the transition to online consumption (and the DT’s paywall is a pain) but at least they are both free (mostly). Perhaps this is a good topic for another thread - which outlets do you read? I like Retirement investment today and the Monevator.
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Post by buggerthebanks on Dec 25, 2018 14:18:12 GMT
A number of people saying we are not in a recession, but unless they have a crystal ball, we will only know this when the data for the first quarter of 2019 are released. But the answer probably is no, not yet.
Many of the indicators that have preceded previous recessions are in the danger zone. Markets are now pricing in a recession in 2019 or 2020. This has manifested itself as a sell off in risk assets, and widening credit spreads (between govt bonds and riskier debt). Tie this up with an American administration that's piling up debt to turbo-charge a late cycle boom, and the omens don't look good. The markets can be wrong, but if they're right it can only end badly for P2P loans. Of course this only begs the perennial question of where else to put it, but cash looks increasingly attractive.
This is an end-of-paradigm event. (Most) recessions do not happen by accident. They are planned events but only with hindsight can you see who profited from them. Let me help you: the same people / institutions who benefited from the last financial crisis will again benefit from this one. If we get away with "just" a recession we'll be extremely lucky. Another financial crisis already seems to be baked into the cake (once you look past the stock market & see what's happening behind the scenes). I do think, however, that we face a real possibility of the end of Fiat money. They all fail (every single one of them, without exception, since the very first one in the 11th century). Given the amount of debt in the world today (inevitable when we have debt-based currencies), do you really think the GBP, USD, JPY or EUR will be different??? Get ready for the SDR. Possibly even one "backed" by blockchain. Think of the implications of that. We should all be very afraid.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Dec 25, 2018 18:25:53 GMT
P2P investments even with defaults don’t look so bad now !!!
If you were relying on Stocks and Shares pension for your retirement needs you are royally screwed.
It is all well and good saying S&S are 5 year investments but that is no good if you need the money.
A bit like negative equity it is meaningless unless you need to sell.
With annuity rates at rock bottom over the last year there are not many places to put your hard earned dosh.
Over 55 you could offset losses with increased SIPP or pension payments. To take full advantage you have to ensure your taxable income in retirement can be managed to avoid tax liabilities.
P2P can be used to transfer money to tax free investments with minimal risk by removing volatility of some more traditional saving
routes.
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