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Post by gravitykillz on Jan 6, 2019 18:56:10 GMT
Rolling is currently at 3.6 and rising the highest i have seen since November. Normality is slowly returning to the markets regardless of recent changes.
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mark123
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Post by mark123 on Jan 6, 2019 22:06:17 GMT
Yes, I've been holding out for 6.1% on the five year market for weeks... and it finally got lent out today. Maybe 6.2% by the end of January?
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Post by gravitykillz on Jan 6, 2019 22:30:15 GMT
Yes, I've been holding out for 6.1% on the five year market for weeks... and it finally got lent out today. Maybe 6.2% by the end of January? I am waiting for 6.8% on RS. I can get 6.5 on lending works right now.
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Post by oppsididitagain on Jan 7, 2019 0:02:56 GMT
Rolling is currently at 3.6 and rising the highest i have seen since November. Normality is slowly returning to the markets regardless of recent changes. Finally ! Something didn't seem quite right with over 3mil being matched below 2.5% over the holiday period. In fact 1.2mil of it was offered at 2% last week, who/why would lend at such a low rate ? maybe we will see said lender cancel soon and see a spike in rates to re fill matched the loan ?? That would be costly for RS. Im just getting matched at 3.7 %
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 7, 2019 0:41:27 GMT
Yes, I've been holding out for 6.1% on the five year market for weeks... and it finally got lent out today. Maybe 6.2% by the end of January? That's interesting as I've had 6.1% entry that hit today too that took 10 days to hit. My previous hit of 6.1% on the 5 year was on 24/12/2018 but that order was placed around 11th Dec. So it took only 13 days to hit the 6.1% mark. I'm still learning and this was only £10 loan (I am still watching how RS lending works in the 5Y so had a few £10 punts at different rates to monitor it). I have a 6.2% that got pretty close yesterday (6/1) within 250k. My 6.3% is sitting @ 500k. Both are pitching into the middle of these rates at present. I think anything that takes 2 weeks or more to get lent is probably not worth waiting but I'm still testing things so its just a proving ground for me.
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corto
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Post by corto on Jan 7, 2019 12:11:50 GMT
I think it's about as follows:
6% of 100£ = 6£ per year = 50p per month
.1% of 100£ = 10p per year
Wait 1 month for .1% more on a 5y contract:
get 5*10p = 50p more in total interest
loose 50p due to drag while waiting
In other words: For each .1% more you can wait a month longer and will break even (but only if you get a match at the target interest by then).
At 3% (rolling market) you can wait twice as long.
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on Jan 7, 2019 14:46:37 GMT
Wait 1 month for .1% more on a 5y contract: get 5*10p = 50p more in total interest loose 50p due to drag while waiting In other words: For each .1% more you can wait a month longer and will break even (but only if you get a match at the target interest by then).
However, please bear in mind:
(1) Not all loans on the 5 Year market are for 5 years. It is "up to 5 years". Many of the loans you get are indeed the full 5 years, but you get a significant proportion of 4 year and 3 year loans too. You also get existing loans (sold by other people releasing their investment), which can have any remaining length, even just a few months. You have no control over this.
(2) Many loans repay early, before the full term. I have been using the 5 Year market for 2 years, and I estimate at least 1/3 of loans will repay early. Even though I'm only 2 years in, already about 1 in 4 of mine have repaid early. Some of them repay very early indeed. You'd be annoyed if you waited a month earning zero interest, in the hope of an extra 0.1% of interest, only to have the resulting loan repay a week later. It happens!
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corto
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Post by corto on Jan 7, 2019 15:33:37 GMT
I agree (tried to keep things simple) and would add
3) the higher the achieved rate, the higher the chance of early repayment
This is just based on a gut-feeling in the rolling market with it's large fluctuations. I guess, for each lender trying to squeeze another .1% out there will be buyers doing the same.
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robski
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Post by robski on Jan 7, 2019 16:12:45 GMT
I agree, no way 100% of your loans will be 5 years and in fact make 5 years even if they start as 5.
50% of that is probably more likely in reality. So I would say if you on average have to hold out for a fortnight to get an extra 0.1% you may be better just accepting 0.1% less on day 1 and get it lent.
Personally I aim for 6% on portfolio, I don't get massively hung up about 0.1% here and there, especially if I am going to join the end of a long que to get the 0.1%
The rates are at 6.2% right now but on a fairly heavy stack to clear 6.2%, I just matched a load at 6.1% and its done. Later today I fully expect rates to be 5.8-5.9% and there be quite a lump there, once RS get the whole of the repayment and reinvestment run concluded.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 7, 2019 17:14:02 GMT
I agree for the most part and my 6.2% matched earlier today whilst I was not watching.
Curiously my reloader is still showing the £0 6.2% 145k, it says zero but it's clearly still at the start of the queue. It must be only a short while but it's matched and lent out today. Sadly, unlike Zopa, the data does not show hr:min on the day it was lent but since it was in the queue since 5th December then that's not exactly worth it I guess - this was a £10 tester though and to be fair I will get £100 at the end of the year so not really a loss.
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mjc
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Post by mjc on Jan 7, 2019 22:37:44 GMT
Just had ISA £1,500 arrive a few days ago, put it on the 1y at 4.6 (£10) to 5.2, not really expecting the higher rates to get invested any time soon, especially as the 1yr was showing at about a miserable 3% latest matched, this evening it all got invested. Was there a sudden spike up, allowing a substantial sum to be allocated? Is this normal, as it is now showing matched at 3% again? Makes me feel like investing more, and so is 5 - 5.5% the best target for the 1yr?.
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Post by oppsididitagain on Jan 8, 2019 0:05:35 GMT
Just had ISA £1,500 arrive a few days ago, put it on the 1y at 4.6 (£10) to 5.2, not really expecting the higher rates to get invested any time soon, especially as the 1yr was showing at about a miserable 3% latest matched, this evening it all got invested. Was there a sudden spike up, allowing a substantial sum to be allocated? Is this normal, as it is now showing matched at 3% again? Makes me feel like investing more, and so is 5 - 5.5% the best target for the 1yr?. Hi Mjc, You will get to see the patterns with RS - the 1 YR normally spikes between 16.30 - 1800. . I always check around 1630 to see the order book and place my lending offers accordingly Today there was 1.5mil worth of borrowers queuing, I put 1K @ 5.4 and 1K @5.5. all but 200 got filled.. then it dropped back to 3% On 24.12.18 I matched 1K at 5.7. but 03.01.19 only got 4.9% Im in the 1yr as the rolling was very depressed approx 2.2% on those dates. Good luck
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mark123
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Post by mark123 on Jan 8, 2019 18:49:42 GMT
Wait 1 month for .1% more on a 5y contract: get 5*10p = 50p more in total interest loose 50p due to drag while waiting In other words: For each .1% more you can wait a month longer and will break even (but only if you get a match at the target interest by then). I agree that the logic is accurate, but only if you have a fixed sum of money you have decided to invest with RS. My situation is different... I have a portfolio of investments which I allocate, let's say, 20% to shares, 20% to bonds, 20% to building society, 20% to RS and 20% to something else. I am already near the top of my RS limit and I don't want to invest much more only because I perceive there is a platform risk and a bad debt capital loss risk. There is an amount of interest which is enough to justify the extra risk of moving from building society 1% FSCS protected to RS. If I believed that 3% in the 5 year market compensated me for that risk I (and the rest of the world) would move much of my funds to RS. I happen to assess the threshold at 6% and I won't lend below that point. If rates go to 6.2% I will reinvest my repayments. If rates go to 7.0% I pile new money in. Using this strategy I have an average rate nearer 7% than 6%. So my logic is: if you consider only your RS investment go for the "1 month is worth .1% rule", but if you consider the totality of your investments go for the "pile it in when rates are good" and "sit on the sidelines when rates are low" strategy.
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tyrex
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Post by tyrex on Jan 8, 2019 19:10:23 GMT
Wait 1 month for .1% more on a 5y contract: get 5*10p = 50p more in total interest loose 50p due to drag while waiting In other words: For each .1% more you can wait a month longer and will break even (but only if you get a match at the target interest by then). I agree that the logic is accurate, but only if you have a fixed sum of money you have decided to invest with RS. My situation is different... I have a portfolio of investments which I allocate, let's say, 20% to shares, 20% to bonds, 20% to building society, 20% to RS and 20% to something else. I am already near the top of my RS limit and I don't want to invest much more only because I perceive there is a platform risk and a bad debt capital loss risk. There is an amount of interest which is enough to justify the extra risk of moving from building society 1% FSCS protected to RS. If I believed that 3% in the 5 year market compensated me for that risk I (and the rest of the world) would move much of my funds to RS. I happen to assess the threshold at 6% and I won't lend below that point. If rates go to 6.2% I will reinvest my repayments. If rates go to 7.0% I pile new money in. Using this strategy I have an average rate nearer 7% than 6%. So my logic is: if you consider only your RS investment go for the "1 month is worth .1% rule", but if you consider the totality of your investments go for the "pile it in when rates are good" and "sit on the sidelines when rates are low" strategy. That's pretty much where I'm at. Can't be bothered with playing with fractions of percentages. If I see a 5 year % spike, I pile in. My current average is about 6.2%, that's roughly my lower limit. Haven't put any new money in since October as a result. Platform risk is by far my biggest concern, especially since RS's latest set of accounts were filed.
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mjc
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Post by mjc on Jan 8, 2019 19:21:12 GMT
Hmmmm is money in the holding account any safer than on loan? It is presumably in a ring fenced account whilst in holding, but of course still no fscs.
What will happen to rates in Feb on the 1yr market as a result of this announcement on site:- ”Currently, it is only the 1 Year market that can fund loans that repay your money plus interest at the end of the term as opposed to loans that pay it back in monthly instalments. Borrower demand for these loans is strong and, while investor supply in the 1 Year market is also strong, it has not grown to a similar size as the Rolling and 5 Year markets.
In February, we are planning to add the functionality for the Rolling market to be able to fund these loans. This will further enhance the depth of the Rolling market, improving access for investors and providing greater certainty of funds for borrowers.
The Rolling market will continue to work as it does now, with your money matched to borrowers for the term of the loan and you can request access to it any time, at no cost.”
(hoping I am allowed to relay that) I wasn’t aware the 1yr alone only paid interest at end of term, guess that is no great consequence to most.
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