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Post by loftankerman on Jan 17, 2019 8:53:22 GMT
I obviously don’t know your specific loan book, but looking at all SUSPENDED and NON-PERFORMING loans, the chances of losing >22% of invested capital across those loans would appear very high to me, and will probably take a decade or so. However, since this is a thread for positive thoughts let’s assume that they will all repay in full with interest and bonus interest. Ha! Yeah. The probable(?) decade you mention is the clincher for me. My <£4k is mentally compartmentalised and of no concern either way. I figure that in another decade I could be dead or drooling in my soup with no recollections of Lendy. Right now I have a healthy life to be enjoying. Positive enough for the thread?
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Jan 17, 2019 9:34:20 GMT
I obviously don’t know your specific loan book, but looking at all SUSPENDED and NON-PERFORMING loans, the chances of losing >22% of invested capital across those loans would appear very high to me, and will probably take a decade or so. However, since this is a thread for positive thoughts let’s assume that they will all repay in full with interest and bonus interest. I don't doubt that there's a good chance of losing more than 22% in some specific loans. However, this is a diversified portfolio with at least a small stake in ALL loans on the platform. Many of them are still paying interest, and (based on what has statisically happened with similar loans in the past) most are expected to repay in full (whether "voluntarily" by the borrower, or after some kind of recovery process).
Whilst it would clearly be ridiculous to think that they will ALL repay in full with interest and bonus interest, historically enough have done so, and enough others at least repaid in full that the losses to the few that do result in a (partial) loss seem easily absorbed. The most problematic loan in the loan book represents less than 1% of my total Lendy portfolio; even if that were to result in a total loss, it'd take a couple of dozen more of those to fully wipe out the interest gains to date.
It does seem to me that the people who sold all their loans a few months ago (or in many cases simply joined a queue giving up all interest on those loans, so that they suffer the loss of interest and ALSO don't get their capital back), and who then complain that their portfolio is losing value are a bit like someone who is flying a hot air balloon, and when it starts to descend they let all the hot air out, and complain when that results in the balloon crashing to the ground...
I've just updated the loan status in my offline records, and despite all the recent suspensions, and the lack of any meaningful quantity of new loans for the last year or so, 30% of my portfolio by value is in loans that are not blocked from sale, with most of those still paying interest.
I could sell that 30% right away and guarantee the balloon comes crashing down with nothing to balance out the excess "ballast", but for now I'm keeping bobbing along in the hope that the balloon keeps going up overall.
Edit: continued upward motion will require some new loans soon, but even if there aren't any NEW loans, I'd at least hope eventually to gently settle the balloon on some higher ground as the last few "good" loans balance out the last few losses, rather than coming crashing down!
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 17, 2019 10:28:23 GMT
Couldn't agree more with sl75.
The one thing he forgot to mention is that looking at the loan book NOW is not exactly painting a fair picture. There has been a dearth of new loans for ages. The loan book is clearly being run down - it's seven months since the most recent PBL drew-down, and five months for the most recent DFL. There was very little in the months leading up to those. The good loans are being repaid, and - for the most part - already HAVE been repaid. They just haven't been replaced with other good loans, so when that money has been repaid, it has been withdrawn from the platform. Of course that leaves us with the suspended and defaulted forming an unrepresentatively large proportion of the book.
Then add in "collateral damage" (...yes, with a small C...) like the swathe of linked loans suspended at once last month. Is there a problem with THOSE loans, those projects? Not necessarily - all we know so far is that the borrower has issues in one of his other projects, and that may have had a knock-on to his ability to refinance "our" ones as planned. Show me an entrepreneur who never has one go south, especially in challenging economic conditions like the current b-word uncertainty, and I'll show you somebody whose overcaution means they miss out a lot of opportunities that would have turned out well.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jan 17, 2019 10:35:54 GMT
<snip>
Then add in "collateral damage" (...yes, with a small C...) like the swathe of linked loans suspended at once last month. Is there a problem with THOSE loans, those projects? Not necessarily - all we know so far is that the borrower has issues in one of his other projects, and that may have had a knock-on to his ability to refinance "our" ones as planned. Show me an entrepreneur who never has one go south, especially in challenging economic conditions like the current b-word uncertainty, and I'll show you somebody whose overcaution means they miss out a lot of opportunities that would have turned out well.
Not all entrepreneurs are beholden to an 8 figure debt pile at eye-watering interest rates, though..
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Jan 17, 2019 10:42:39 GMT
Couldn't agree more with sl75 .
The one thing he forgot to mention is ...
I did indeed mention "despite ... the lack of any meaningful quantity of new loans for the last year or so"... but thanks for spelling it out in even more detail.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 17, 2019 10:43:42 GMT
<snip>
Then add in "collateral damage" (...yes, with a small C...) like the swathe of linked loans suspended at once last month. Is there a problem with THOSE loans, those projects? Not necessarily - all we know so far is that the borrower has issues in one of his other projects, and that may have had a knock-on to his ability to refinance "our" ones as planned. Show me an entrepreneur who never has one go south, especially in challenging economic conditions like the current b-word uncertainty, and I'll show you somebody whose overcaution means they miss out a lot of opportunities that would have turned out well.
Not all entrepreneurs are beholden to an 8 figure debt pile at eye-watering interest rates, though.. Perhaps, perhaps not. But that's why P2P headline returns are what they are. If you didn't understand that when you invested, then that's more a failure of your own DD than any issue with the platform. There's been enough talk here over the years of diversification and defaults being expected. The rule of thumb here has long been ~7% return after defaults. For my own Lendy XIRR to get down to there, I'd be looking at about a 40% loss on all my currently suspended and defaulted loans, and not one more penny back from any of the ones already in legals. sl75 - So you did. My apologies.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jan 17, 2019 10:51:01 GMT
Not all entrepreneurs are beholden to an 8 figure debt pile at eye-watering interest rates, though.. Perhaps, perhaps not. But that's why P2P headline returns are what they are. If you didn't understand that when you invested, then that's more a failure of your own DD than any issue with the platform. There's been enough talk here over the years of diversification and defaults being expected. The rule of thumb here has long been ~7% return after defaults. For my own Lendy XIRR to get down to there, I'd be looking at about a 40% loss on all my currently suspended and defaulted loans, and not one more penny back from any of the ones already in legals. sl75 - So you did. My apologies. Gawd, Adrian, do you think I'm invested? I think I made my last 'Saving Stream' withdrawal in the first month of 2017. Just observing that this isn't really an ordinary entrepreneur. He's been a long-term indulged Lendy partner with (arguably) far too many pans in the fire for the rates Lendy offer. I hope the end of January brings good tidings, but I'm personally not expecting it. edit: I, rather quaintly in hindsight, felt that the Gloucs loans had been dragging on too long at the time edit2: Did Lendy hear me? Just had this email through: " Quick! Secure up to 10% returns with Lendy Wealth,<Sexy Robot>, we will soon be dropping the interest rates on our Lendy Wealth accounts" Obviously, I'm frantically scrabbling for my internet banking card-reader as we speak.
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picnicman
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Post by picnicman on Jan 17, 2019 10:53:25 GMT
Just seen this thread - Positive - one small sum left in a suspended loan (DFL003 - so hopeful!) 12% interest over last two years with no losses/defaults. I have bought lottery tickets but not the same good fortune - Negative - I was blinded by the bling on Coll which if goes 100% pop, will virtually wipe this interest and other interest received. Cheers P
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 17, 2019 10:55:20 GMT
Gawd, Adrian, do you think I'm invested? I think I made my last 'Saving Stream' withdrawal in the first month of 2017. So, umm, why are you still hanging around the Lendy forum? Just to troll...?
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jan 17, 2019 10:58:56 GMT
Gawd, Adrian, do you think I'm invested? I think I made my last 'Saving Stream' withdrawal in the first month of 2017. So, umm, why are you still hanging around the Lendy forum? Just to troll...? Eh? Sorry if my comment caused any offence but I wasn't trying to troll, just saying that chappie's debt pile might be a factor. Not the most revolutionary point I know, but not (intended as) flippant either. I don't comment on Lendy a great deal, but I do still follow with interest.
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jonbvn
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Post by jonbvn on Jan 17, 2019 11:26:58 GMT
Just got this email from our dear friends at Lendy. Just ruined my laptop spraying coffee all over it.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 17, 2019 16:54:29 GMT
Here's some positively positive news. Lendy support have positively officially admitted in so many words that I have positively made that elusive capital loss on DFL025. Not much, it's true - about 0.7%. But some.
The strapline is positively no longer true. Whether it's positively going to be retired is another question...
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 17, 2019 16:56:44 GMT
FWIW, I do genuinely think that is positive news, and indicative of a new attitude of realism. Denying the obvious helps nobody. Defaults and losses happen. Anybody who doesn't understand that has their money in the wrong place. Let's all be realistic grown-ups about it, and admit when things do go south, instead of pretending they haven't.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Jan 17, 2019 17:12:11 GMT
FWIW, I do genuinely think that is positive news, and indicative of a new attitude of realism. Denying the obvious helps nobody. Defaults and losses happen. Anybody who doesn't understand that has their money in the wrong place. Let's all be realistic grown-ups about it, and admit when things do go south, instead of pretending they haven't. EXACTLY.. it would still be better to have things resolved as quickly as possible. I will be happy if at the end of the year Lendy pays back my £100k + and I have more than a similar amount in the stock market currently 15% down.
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sussexlender
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Post by sussexlender on Jan 17, 2019 19:35:23 GMT
Just got this email from our dear friends at Lendy. Just ruined my laptop spraying coffee all over it. Lendy e mail Bull**** translator up dated January 2019 edition -- " Wonderful positive news too all investors of the brilliant minds we employ at Lendy management. We have managed to pocket all the up front fees since starting probably the world's most successful investment scam scheme, the much admired and never equalled Lendy Wealth. We soon had to successfully drop the qualifying amount by 80% from £50 k to £10k but that was positive news as it enabled us to catch help more tiny little investors gain access to this wonderful investment plan; but don't worry, as the positive news is that all of us at Lendy are going to keep much more of the money when we do actually managed to collect any from our trustworthy and long suffering borrowers instead of giving to you lot of fools investors. Our borrowers have to put up with so much stress and upset when investors start asking for the cash back so on appositive note we have employed an entirely new team to make no progress but they are very adapt at cut and paste artistry. Borrowers are so happy to know they may not need to pay such high rates of interest. In fact many borrowers already save all the interest % as they don't pay are far too busy planning and saving up to make their next purchases. Thank you so much for continuing to chuck cash trust your cash in the mystery black box and taking all the risks. The even more positive news is that we at Lendy continue to risk nothing as we have no skin in the game. We hope that by reducing the interest rates we boasted about promised all investors when we started the magnificent Wealth funds it will stop greedy investors from jumping on the bandwagon that we have so carefully developed just for loyal investors to enjoy. We thank all investors in so many of our top quality totally lost loans "non performing" loans for their everlasting patience.
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