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Post by danraj on Jan 17, 2019 19:55:07 GMT
We've added a new feature to the lender dashboard that includes a Net Worth Chart, showing the movement of net assets in line with gains and losses.
We're working on a blog post to explain how to interpret the chart along with some examples showing various scenarios. We might even do a short explainer video!
If your chart looks interesting, then please snip it and post it or email it to support@rebuildingsociety.com along with any questions.
Hope you like, we have another new feature coming soon too. Will post that in a separate thread.
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Post by danraj on Jan 21, 2019 18:20:59 GMT
This is one of my favourite charts...  This lender takes over a year to really get started. After a long period of testing the platform, they decide to invest more actively, buying various microloans, which takes their portfolio negative (because they pay a premium on many microloans). For about 9 months their losses and gains are in line, i.e. their net returns are relatively low, but as their experience develops, and our platform matures, their gains consistently build to the point where the average net returns is > 10.5% pa. This lender has taken some time to get familiar with p2p lending, and now, through spending a few hours each week, generates a passive consistent income of £30k pa based on circa £300k of external investment. The Net Worth line discounts loans in default. Historic performance can't be used to forecast the future, but it can give a trend line indication. At a time when shares are volatile and asset prices inflated from monetary policy, there are few investments that give consistent progressive yields in the way that p2p lending can, evidenced by this lender. If your chart is interesting, please let me know, we're looking for submissions for a blog post. I've had some feedback on the line colours, so they may change soon. |
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Vero
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Post by Vero on Jan 21, 2019 20:39:56 GMT
Dan I have attached (as a .jpg - click on it to expand) a copy of the current NW chart for my SSAS pension scheme account.
I've only made 2 deposits into the account so far (2015, 2017), with no withdrawals, and only strictly HMRC pension qualifying loans, mostly on the SM - so perhaps a fairly simple example.
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Post by danraj on Jan 21, 2019 23:03:16 GMT
Hi @vero,
Thanks for sharing. Looks like you've had good steady growth. Long may it continue.
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baldpate
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Post by baldpate on Jan 23, 2019 18:47:01 GMT
Unfortunately, danraj, on my graph none of the figures (with one exception) showing at the right-hand tail of each graph line (presumably the current figures) can be made to reconcile in any reasonable manner with the figures displayed on the main dashboard.
Perhaps if you were to post a statement of how each data point is calculated, I might come to a different conclusion ; without it, however, your new graph, though very pretty, is worthless as it cannot be verified and therefore cannot be believed.
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seb8072
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Post by seb8072 on Jan 24, 2019 16:17:15 GMT
Dan I have attached (as a .jpg - click on it to expand) a copy of the current NW chart for my SSAS pension scheme account.
I've only made 2 deposits into the account so far (2015, 2017), with no withdrawals, and only strictly HMRC pension qualifying loans, mostly on the SM - so perhaps a fairly simple example.
I do not understand how one can have two 18month periods, invest 10-20k at the beginning of each, and achieve ~22% pa gains and no losses. I would welcome being enlightened.
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Post by danraj on Jan 31, 2019 20:29:27 GMT
Unfortunately, danraj , on my graph none of the figures (with one exception) showing at the right-hand tail of each graph line (presumably the current figures) can be made to reconcile in any reasonable manner with the figures displayed on the main dashboard.
Perhaps if you were to post a statement of how each data point is calculated, I might come to a different conclusion ; without it, however, your new graph, though very pretty, is worthless as it cannot be verified and therefore cannot be believed.
You can download your data series from the Export link on the Net Return tile on your dashboard. This will give you a CSV file, each line denotes a period where your deposits have been constant. This CSV gives you the gains and losses and is very synergistic to the chart. This should help to corroborate the data points used. I would welcome your feedback and analysis of the data.
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Post by danraj on Jan 31, 2019 20:34:58 GMT
I do not understand how one can have two 18month periods, invest 10-20k at the beginning of each, and achieve ~22% pa gains and no losses. I would welcome being enlightened. Each period is denoted by a change in deposits. On Vero's chart, there are just two credits. Vero has selected businesses paying high-interest rates and has reinvested the interest received each month. So on an annualised basis, after compounding, has received 22% gains. This user has selectively chosen their preferred borrowers who continue to perform to this day. Not every lender likes to pick and choose the businesses they lend to, that's fine, but those who do, often have an above average performance. I hope this helps, happy to answer more questions.
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baldpate
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Post by baldpate on Feb 1, 2019 13:20:32 GMT
You can download your data series from the Export link on the Net Return tile on your dashboard. This will give you a CSV file, each line denotes a period where your deposits have been constant. This CSV gives you the gains and losses and is very synergistic to the chart. This should help to corroborate the data points used. I would welcome your feedback and analysis of the data.
thank you - it is helpful to know the source of these figures. I am very familiar with the downloadable dataset to which you refer and have used it as a basis for my own RoR calculations (with some variations, where I take issue with your methodology - but we won't go into that here  !) Clearly the graph points derive from the cumulative values of a number of the columns, in various combinations. With the exception of the (blindingly obvious) 'Deposits Net of Withdrawals' series, however, I cannot work out exactly how the other series relate to the download columns. I have spent a little time trying different combinations, but without a convincing fit. What I really need is to know the formulae that relate the data series to the column headings in the downloadable dataset - along the lines of the obvious one
Deposits Net of Withdrawals = SUM(Funds Credited) + SUM(Funds Debited)
You mention in your opening post a blog article you are working on. Perhaps you might include this information as an annex to this blog, for those of us who are more mathematically minded .
Thanks again
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Vero
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Post by Vero on Feb 4, 2019 16:46:09 GMT
Dan I have attached (as a .jpg - click on it to expand) a copy of the current NW chart for my SSAS pension scheme account.
I've only made 2 deposits into the account so far (2015, 2017), with no withdrawals, and only strictly HMRC pension qualifying loans, mostly on the SM - so perhaps a fairly simple example.
I do not understand how one can have two 18month periods, invest 10-20k at the beginning of each, and achieve ~22% pa gains and no losses. I would welcome being enlightened. seb8072 the chart was for my pension scheme - only a few loans that I liked meet HMRC's strict qualifications for pension schemes. This means I had to be super selective and put most of my eggs in very few baskets (contrary to the "scattergun" approach common in P2P). I did lots of DD, and narrowed it down to a few specific loans that I agreed with, with decent interest rates, and so far no defaults.
The chart for my personal account is a bit more interesting, as I needed access to my funds urgently at one stage, so I sold most of my loans (at a small profit). In total I had deposited £42,235 and, including earnings, I withdrew £58,335 (see below):
There is currently still £2,224 of further profit remaining in this account, quietly growing.
(Later, when I had spare funds again, I opened an IFISA account and deposited funds there, instead of back into my personal account). I am still pretty selective in these accounts, but am not held back by the HMRC pension rules, so am allowed more variety.
I hope that explains things a little?
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Vero
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Post by Vero on Feb 4, 2019 16:55:12 GMT
I do not understand how one can have two 18month periods, invest 10-20k at the beginning of each, and achieve ~22% pa gains and no losses. I would welcome being enlightened. seb8072 and here is the more straightforward chart for my IFISA account, with most funds (£20k) deposited in April 2018, so just a 9 month trajectory to show so far.
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seb8072
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Post by seb8072 on Feb 6, 2019 13:42:29 GMT
Many thanks for that Vero. You have clearly mastered the black art of DD! How are the HMRC restrictions placed on loans? Is this done by the platform when you have a SIPP account? |
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Vero
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Post by Vero on Feb 7, 2019 22:06:00 GMT
Many thanks for that Vero. You have clearly mastered the black art of DD! How are the HMRC restrictions placed on loans? Is this done by the platform when you have a SIPP account? seb8072 I don't know about black art! I'm pretty cautious, I do spend a fair bit of time figuring out loans/borrowers. My very first loan was already in default when I bought it - I felt sorry for the borrower & wanted to give him a chance... lesson learnt!
I have an SSAS (small self administered scheme) for my limited company, it's an occupational scheme, but similar to a SIPP.
I am both trustee and administrator, so it's more flexible, and less regulated.
HMRC restrictions mean nothing portable can be invested in (termed "tangible moveable property") such as antiques, gold, art,
watches, wine, cars, boats, plant and machinery, cryptos etc. Also no residential property (commercial property is fine).
This also relates to security held on loans, even if the security never gets called in, apparently it is the potential for security to be called in... Mistakes can be taxed at 40% - 55%, and there is often a penalty of the same size too.
Also as pensions are not taxed, losses or secondary market costs cannot be written off, so I need to keep these to the minimum. (I am supposed to be a "responsible person" and ideally not lose the pension's funds willy nilly).
I have an SSAS accountant that does my annual pension returns, and I run anything unusual past him first, to make sure it's allowable.
I hope that helps.
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Post by danraj on Feb 8, 2019 11:33:01 GMT
baldpate - see: www.rebuildingsociety.com/invest/net-returns-calculations/If you email support with your calculations I'm happy to review how and why they may differ from ours. @vero Thanks so much for sharing. This is really appreciated. I'm really pleased that you have had such a strong performance from your loans. Long may it continue... Given the length of time, your performance is untypical because most lenders will experience their first default within 18-36 months of lending with us. It can then take several months (until our their first recovery) before the Net Return 'normalises' at a natural, adjusted level. I've learned, the hard way, that if people's expectations are not managed from the outset, they end up disappointed and move onto another platform, before giving their portfolio an opportunity to mature following their first recoveries. Whilst I am delighted that there are various lenders that have done really well with us, we have a broad distribution of performance, as shown on the histogram on our stats page.
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Post by oppsididitagain on Jun 5, 2019 11:46:54 GMT
As my costs are now above my Net Gains. does this mean I losing money ??  |
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