|
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2023 8:19:09 GMT
I'm in group 5 - I understand the science but believe that any change I make (or even the country for that matter) will have minimal impact because the problem is in developing third world countries whos emissions are going through the roof. Group 6.. this is me... i'll do what i can afford to do, to the best of my ability...i cannot afford a heat pump, i cannot afford solar panels, i can afford some additional loft insulation, which i just done, and i also just got rid of my lovely 2010 bmw X1 for a vw up. No. I'm not accepting a 6
Either a 2 or 3. If you can go online you can afford to do more ;-)
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2023 8:21:22 GMT
Group 6.. this is me... i'll do what i can afford to do, to the best of my ability...i cannot afford a heat pump, i cannot afford solar panels, i can afford some additional loft insulation, which i just done, and i also just got rid of my lovely 2010 bmw X1 for a vw up. sort of similar to me Solar and Battery, I have loft insulation, External Wall Insulation would cost £15-£20,000. Still have an ICE car. Like Millions of people I have nowhere to charge an EV. Had a quote last year for a heat pump £15,000 plus new Radiators, and a complete refit of the downstairs bathroom as that is the only place I could install the gubbins, the heat store, hot water tank etc 2 or 3. Do you still holiday by air, do you still eat out, do you still eat meat, do you still buy new clothes?
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2023 8:26:30 GMT
The problem with reducing global pollution is that there are far too many people with vested interests. Is Germany going to 'take one for the planet' by closing down its vast open cast coal mines? Will China stop building coal fired powere plants? I think we all know the answers.
Until Ukraine Germany was closing down coal mines The China picture is changing
I have an image of two people in a life boat with lots of water in it, one sits doing nothing because the other is not bailing out water. the other sits doing nothing because the other is not bailing out water. Both drown. Doing nothing because China is not doing what we want is the recipe of idiocy (present company excluded of course)
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 10,026
Likes: 5,152
Member is Online
|
Post by adrianc on Feb 7, 2023 8:39:17 GMT
[...] Here is one set of data. Not the most uptodate, but 2019. Its CO2 per capita: [...] Remind me, what was that about the problem lying with the poor in the developing world ? [...] As our current per capita CO2 emissions are still considerably ahead of those of poorer people, then making adjustments to reduce output will have outsize impacts on [...] The planet doesn't care one iota about per capita emissions or how rich/poor various countries might be. The planet (or rather life on the planet) cares only about the absolute value of emissions, taken as a whole. It's too easy, and very convenient, for the worst offending countries with high populations to excuse themselves with the per capita argument and carry on business as usual. IMHO we shouldn't be supporting that idea. Everybody needs to cut back and ideally the worst offending countries should be cutting back at the greatest rate. When that happens, more will find it easier to get behind the idea. Except countries are all different sizes. The only sensible way to level them out is to look at per capita emissions. Country A emits 3x as much as country B. Country A has 6x the population of country B. Which is the "worst offending country"?
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 10,026
Likes: 5,152
Member is Online
|
Post by adrianc on Feb 7, 2023 8:42:43 GMT
The problem with reducing global pollution is that there are far too many people with vested interests. Is Germany going to 'take one for the planet' by closing down its vast open cast coal mines? Will China stop building coal fired powere plants? I think we all know the answers. And there you raise a conundrum that illustrates how there are few easy answers. Germany moved back towards coal as an interim when they decided to close their nuclear power, on the grounds of safety and potential pollution in the event of an accident. Which emissions are worse, the real GH or the potential irradiated wasteland? China moved heavily to coal as a quick interim as they started to develop and industrialise. A huge proportion of that industrialisation, of course, is outsourced manufacturing for us. So whose emissions are they? Any move can only be a gradual one - the main argument is over the speed of that gradient. And, yes, there may be retrograde steps en route...
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2023 8:55:51 GMT
ah sorry adrianc, I was copying that from agent's item, I was trying to refute it, rather than support it
|
|
|
Post by bracknellboy on Feb 7, 2023 10:20:04 GMT
[...] Here is one set of data. Not the most uptodate, but 2019. Its CO2 per capita: [...] Remind me, what was that about the problem lying with the poor in the developing world ? [...] As our current per capita CO2 emissions are still considerably ahead of those of poorer people, then making adjustments to reduce output will have outsize impacts on [...] The planet doesn't care one iota about per capita emissions or how rich/poor various countries might be. The planet (or rather life on the planet) cares only about the absolute value of emissions, taken as a whole.
It's too easy, and very convenient, for the worst offending countries with high populations to excuse themselves with the per capita argument and carry on business as usual. IMHO we shouldn't be supporting that idea. Everybody needs to cut back and ideally the worst offending countries should be cutting back at the greatest rate. When that happens, more will find it easier to get behind the idea. You are right that the planet cares about absolute emissions. Total emissions = "mean per capita GHG emissions" * population QED one of the things the planet cares about is mean per capita emissions. Using the same datasets* from earlier, the mean per capita no. is 4.41 tons. Following your line of reasoning (its absolute emissions which matter), everyone above that line needs to reduce, and the further above that mean the more they need to reduce. That means pretty much the entirety of the rich developed world. I think you'll find "the planet" doesn't care a hoot about sub-division into artificial geo-political "teams", and a consequent league table which aggregates individual contributions into those teams. Teams of monumentally different sizes and at different stages of development. And teams which can change. If the UK splits into Scotland, Wales, England and the IoW, while NI joins Eire, the aggregated emissions of the populations doesn't change even though the "league table" of nations does. I think "the planet" won't care a hoot about such things. Again I emphasise I am not suggesting that developing countries don't need to plan how to increase well being while controlling/minimising emissions. They do. And with our help. But lets be clear: they are likely to grow first because they are coming from a base of very low emissions per person associated with being poor. On the other hand, the argument is that because I associate with a very small team I need do nothing; whereas the onus is on others who for no reason other than they happen to be in a very large "team"; despite the fact that my own contribution might be 3/4/10 times theirs, and they are likely 5-10 times poorer than I am. That's the net of it.
|
|
keitha
Member of DD Central
2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
Posts: 4,596
Likes: 2,624
|
Post by keitha on Feb 7, 2023 11:16:25 GMT
sort of similar to me Solar and Battery, I have loft insulation, External Wall Insulation would cost £15-£20,000. Still have an ICE car. Like Millions of people I have nowhere to charge an EV. Had a quote last year for a heat pump £15,000 plus new Radiators, and a complete refit of the downstairs bathroom as that is the only place I could install the gubbins, the heat store, hot water tank etc 2 or 3. Do you still holiday by air, do you still eat out, do you still eat meat, do you still buy new clothes? Holiday by air not since 2019 ! planning on a short haul this year, eat out maybe once every 2 months, I do eat meat but I also eat the bits many won't eat eg, Mince, kidney, Liver etc. 1 pair of trainers and 3 pairs of boxer shorts in 3 years ( kids have bought me jumpers for Christmas / birthdays )
|
|
keitha
Member of DD Central
2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
Posts: 4,596
Likes: 2,624
|
Post by keitha on Feb 7, 2023 11:23:38 GMT
[ Germany moved back towards coal as an interim when they decided to close their nuclear power, on the grounds of safety and potential pollution in the event of an accident. Which emissions are worse, the real GH or the potential irradiated wasteland? China moved heavily to coal as a quick interim as they started to develop and industrialise. A huge proportion of that industrialisation, of course, is outsourced manufacturing for us. So whose emissions are they? Any move can only be a gradual one - the main argument is over the speed of that gradient. And, yes, there may be retrograde steps en route... I suppose if you have an irradiated wasteland you wouldn't have any industry or population adding to the pollution load. I think the scary story I read that relates to proportionality of emissions is that the average US citizen uses more electricity running a fridge than 90% of the world population use in total. One of my American friends says he burns about 10 tonnes of wood a year 8 in the winter to heat and 2 in the summer for grilling etc in 2021 US emissions from coal rose by 17% ( yes 17%) in 2021.
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 10,026
Likes: 5,152
Member is Online
|
Post by adrianc on Feb 7, 2023 11:32:57 GMT
...and, of course, we've got the difference between short- and long-term carbon cycle.
Cut a tree down, burn it - that carbon has only been locked up for a few decades. It doesn't add to the "modern world's" total. Dig fossil fuels up, burn them - that carbon has been locked up for many millennia. It adds to the "modern world's" total.
Trees are also a regenerative thing. Cut a tree down, plant a tree, more carbon gets locked in.
They're also a natural cycle. Cut the tree down, don't burn it, it rots and releases the carbon. Don't cut the tree down, it dies eventually*, rots, releases the carbon.
Also, especially now with wood prices high, most of the wood that gets burnt is not useful for other purposes - it's often an otherwise-wasted byproduct of those other purposes. Building and furniture timber, paper, etc.
There are, of course, other issues with burning trees - localised particulate emissions in dense urban areas, for a start.
* - this is a particularly good one to remember currently, given that Ash is about the best firewood going...
|
|
|
Post by bernythedolt on Feb 7, 2023 13:07:50 GMT
I have an image of two people in a life boat with lots of water in it, one sits doing nothing because the other is not bailing out water. the other sits doing nothing because the other is not bailing out water. Both drown. Doing nothing because China is not doing what we want is the recipe of idiocy (present company excluded of course)
My image is 26 people in the lifeboat, me, 5 Americans and 20 Chinese*. While I'm frantically trying to bail out, the others are still busily drilling holes in the hull... *Being the approximate demographic ratio
|
|
|
Post by bernythedolt on Feb 7, 2023 13:11:54 GMT
I'm reminded that the Greeks used this device to drive water-powered machinery. They would seat and chain down a team of slaves in a large pool, driving pumps with their legs. If they didn't pump hard enough as a team, the water level in the pool would rise and the team would drown, to be replaced with fresh slaves.
All need to work together, pulling in the same direction, otherwise...
|
|
|
Post by bernythedolt on Feb 7, 2023 13:30:54 GMT
The planet doesn't care one iota about per capita emissions or how rich/poor various countries might be. The planet (or rather life on the planet) cares only about the absolute value of emissions, taken as a whole. It's too easy, and very convenient, for the worst offending countries with high populations to excuse themselves with the per capita argument and carry on business as usual. IMHO we shouldn't be supporting that idea. Everybody needs to cut back and ideally the worst offending countries should be cutting back at the greatest rate. When that happens, more will find it easier to get behind the idea. Except countries are all different sizes. The only sensible way to level them out is to look at per capita emissions. Country A emits 3x as much as country B. Country A has 6x the population of country B. Which is the "worst offending country"? Clearly country A. Whatever country B does will have very little overall impact on the planet, while the leader of country A needs to take some drastic action. The leader of B can mirror that action in lockstep, but the leader of A cannot just ignore his majority contribution.
|
|
benaj
Member of DD Central
N/A
Posts: 5,626
Likes: 1,742
|
Post by benaj on Feb 7, 2023 13:39:23 GMT
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 10,026
Likes: 5,152
Member is Online
|
Post by adrianc on Feb 7, 2023 13:49:01 GMT
Except countries are all different sizes. The only sensible way to level them out is to look at per capita emissions. Country A emits 3x as much as country B. Country A has 6x the population of country B. Which is the "worst offending country"? Clearly country A. Whatever country B does will have very little overall impact on the planet, while the leader of country A needs to take some drastic action. The leader of B can mirror that action in lockstep, but the leader of A cannot just ignore his majority contribution. OK, so country A then splits into four new countries. They're all even sized - now 0.75x the emissions of B, despite 1.5x the population. Has B suddenly moved from good guy to bad guy? The same amount of emissions have come from the same amount of people. All that's changed is some new arbitrary lines have been drawn on a map.
|
|