tonyr
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Post by tonyr on Nov 20, 2014 11:41:51 GMT
Wow - this thread has been taken over completely.
Briefly, and in my opinion, there is no underwriter conspiracy. I think I'm the only person that has stated (albiet via a forum name) that I'm an underwriter. I've only been PMed by one other underwriter and I believe there are at least 50 AC underwriters. So in my experience the underwriters do not even talk to each other, never mind conspire.
I can see that AC have a problem in getting all the loan parts together before drawdown. This has always been the case and it'll never be completely solved. Even planned drawdowns drag on for weeks and months - it's just a feature of the extra due diligence that AC do and that I think we are all grateful for. Earlier in this thread someone suggested that underwriters fill loans and once full they would be opened up to anyone who had the cash in their account. Personally I think that could work, of course the cash could always be withdrawn before drawdown but then AC would still have underwriter support so it should just be a bit more coding for Chris.
I also think that it could work if underwriters put part or all of what they have for sale immediately. Of course they could always buy it back, but the purchase scheme is very fair to small lenders, they get filled first so they would get what they want.
Ultimately the problem is one of making sure that everyone is happy with the platform as that's the only way it's going to work. If either of the suggestions above address the concerns here then I'm sure they will be seriously considered at AC towers.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Nov 20, 2014 11:56:32 GMT
I think AC try to be fair to everyone, and allow lenders of all sizes a not-too-uneven playing field. I think having a rule such as underwriters needing to list at least half of each of their underwritings within 90 days of drawdown would be reasonable and fair to everyone. That seems to me an arbitrary rule made up on the spot as an attempt to rebalance what started out as an unfair situation (only a small select group being able to make the primary investment), and which itself will result in other unfairnesses, etc... e.g. why exactly half, and why exactly 90 days? The fairest solution seems to me to have: - all users having the ABILITY to stump up hard cash pre-drawdown (underwriters would have an OBLIGATION to do so in exchange for which I assume they receive a fee, regardless of whether that obligation is actually called upon in full or not). - anyone who has actually contributed cash towards the loan being allocated loan units with no further strings attached - they can sell them in the aftermarket as and when they choose to do so, or retain them for the life of the loan. Why demand a complex solution with lots of extra arbitrary rules, when a possible simple solution is staring us in the face? Regarding the specific loan that this thread is supposed to be about, it was available for bidding by retail investors pre-drawdown. I got a small slice myself. I'd see anyone who chose not to acquire it at the first opportunity as having no moral right to demand that there be a further opportunity to acquire it on any particular timescale, and especially not if they themselves had a shadow bidding facility so did not need to provide the cash until the same time as the underwriter(s) would have done. In fact I've sold a couple of small chunks from my own holding. The first was split only 6 ways (but I think this was immediately after drawdown, so may have been a many-to-many match). The second was a reduction of £20, and got split 20 ways in £1 chunks.
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niceguy37
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Post by niceguy37 on Nov 20, 2014 12:41:18 GMT
I think AC try to be fair to everyone, and allow lenders of all sizes a not-too-uneven playing field. I think having a rule such as underwriters needing to list at least half of each of their underwritings within 90 days of drawdown would be reasonable and fair to everyone. That seems to me an arbitrary rule made up on the spot as an attempt to rebalance what started out as an unfair situation (only a small select group being able to make the primary investment), and which itself will result in other unfairnesses, etc... e.g. why exactly half, and why exactly 90 days? The fairest solution seems to me to have: - all users having the ABILITY to stump up hard cash pre-drawdown (underwriters would have an OBLIGATION to do so in exchange for which I assume they receive a fee, regardless of whether that obligation is actually called upon in full or not). - anyone who has actually contributed cash towards the loan being allocated loan units with no further strings attached - they can sell them in the aftermarket as and when they choose to do so, or retain them for the life of the loan. Why demand a complex solution with lots of extra arbitrary rules, when a possible simple solution is staring us in the face? Regarding the specific loan that this thread is supposed to be about, it was available for bidding by retail investors pre-drawdown. I got a small slice myself. I'd see anyone who chose not to acquire it at the first opportunity as having no moral right to demand that there be a further opportunity to acquire it on any particular timescale, and especially not if they themselves had a shadow bidding facility so did not need to provide the cash until the same time as the underwriter(s) would have done. In fact I've sold a couple of small chunks from my own holding. The first was split only 6 ways (but I think this was immediately after drawdown, so may have been a many-to-many match). The second was a reduction of £20, and got split 20 ways in £1 chunks. I was only trying to suggest an example of a rule that might ensure that retail lenders get a chance to get in on the action on every loan. I was happy with the previous bidding / shadow bidding process in principle, and it did allow interested lenders to reserve a share of a loan in exchange for tying up some capital until drawdown. It just needed better drawdown forecasting, and reduced drawdown times. But will AC bring back retail bidding?
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Nov 20, 2014 20:54:03 GMT
Briefly, and in my opinion, there is no underwriter conspiracy. I didn't notice any suggestions of conspiracy. The issue was discussed in this thread because it's a huge loan and people were expecting large chunks of it to appear on the Aftermarket shortly after drawdown so they were surprised when that didn't happen. AndrewH has explained that the bulk of this loan was underwritten by a single investor, so that should have made it clear that the issue isn't one of conspiracy. I also think that it could work if underwriters put part or all of what they have for sale immediately. Of course they could always buy it back, but the purchase scheme is very fair to small lenders, they get filled first so they would get what they want. I was unaware of any bias in the purchase scheme towards small lenders, giving them priority in any way. If the current holder of the bulk of this loan were to put their entire 'underwriter' holding onto the Aftermarket, I expect they could buy most of it back into their 'investment' account before small investors could react in significant numbers. Having said that though, if minor restrictions were placed on underwriters' repurchases I don't think it would be particularly upsetting to underwriters. But that's JMHO and I have no experience with underwriters or underwriting, so it might not be worth much. Regarding the specific loan that this thread is supposed to be about, it was available for bidding by retail investors pre-drawdown. I got a small slice myself. I'd see anyone who chose not to acquire it at the first opportunity as having no moral right to demand that there be a further opportunity to acquire it on any particular timescale, and especially not if they themselves had a shadow bidding facility so did not need to provide the cash until the same time as the underwriter(s) would have done. I think you're missing a couple of important points... - Based on prior experience small lenders were led to believe that, particularly because this loan was so big, there was no need to have dead money tied up in bids prior to drawdown. It was expected that there would be huge amounts of this loan available on the Aftermarket. It was discussed at the beginning on this thread. From the first three posts it is clear that the loan was underwritten instantly, and that was before even pre-bids were allowed. AC follow the forum and if they knew we were totally wrong in our thinking and that the only way to participate in this loan was to bid and have dead money, then I feel they ought to have said something at the time.
- In Post #2, kermie said "I have a hunch this is the way AC will go (no inside information - just a hunch) when the new site launches - i.e., underwriting will be secured before a loan appears...and maybe even the PM will disappear totally and lenders won't be able to purchase until drawdown on the AM." I suspect he chose his words to be diplomatic, inasmuch as AC had given enough hints about the new system. So while we're now discussing a loan that came forward before the new system was implemented, the issue is more relevant for the future, when non-underwriters do not have an opportunity to invest before drawdown. In that case, I believe AC need to put conditions on their underwriters to ensure that they act as underwriters -- facilitating the lending process -- and not as privileged investors who are allowed to cherry-pick and snaffle up all the good opportunities ahead of any investment by non-underwriters.
In fact I've sold a couple of small chunks from my own holding. The first was split only 6 ways (but I think this was immediately after drawdown, so may have been a many-to-many match). The second was a reduction of £20, and got split 20 ways in £1 chunks. Perhaps the AutoInvest system isn't working perfectly. I set my target for this loan before it drew down, so I would have expected to pick up a piece of sl75's first sale, but I didn't. By the time of his second sale there must have been a long list of people with targets above their holdings, because his sale was divided into £1 parts. I didn't get one of those either. I did pick up a part late this afternoon. It was a £1 part, so this suggests that there still are a lot of people trying to increase their holdings of this loan.
Perhaps all that's needed at this point is a polite request from AC to the underwriter who is acting as a privileged investor rather than an underwriter to suggest that they release some of their holding to the Aftermarket. I suspect it wouldn't take a release of even 10% of their holding to completely satisfy small investor demand and leave parts available on the Aftermarket for future investors. And that includes GEIA investors.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Nov 20, 2014 22:22:25 GMT
- Based on prior experience small lenders were led to believe that, particularly because this loan was so big, there was no need to have dead money tied up in bids prior to drawdown. It was expected that there would be huge amounts of this loan available on the Aftermarket.
... and quite possibly huge amounts will be available on the Aftermarket - just not "right now". Given the comment near the start of the thread about it being underwritten by "a sole person who liked the loan and was prepared to underwrite it in full", it seems quite likely that loan units will become available only when that individual finds something else they like sufficiently to cause them to want to liquidate this one. I would also note that the underwriter in question has created a one-off opportunity for themselves - the first time they release loan units onto the aftermarket they'll be highly sought after, and practically as liquid as already having the cash in their Assetz account... an opportunity not to be wasted!
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 21, 2014 17:14:19 GMT
This thread must be jolting someones conscience. Just pick up another £4 on the am.
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tonyr
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Post by tonyr on Nov 22, 2014 20:14:33 GMT
Given the comment near the start of the thread about it being underwritten by "a sole person who liked the loan and was prepared to underwrite it in full", it seems quite likely that loan units will become available only when that individual finds something else they like sufficiently to cause them to want to liquidate this one. I would also note that the underwriter in question has created a one-off opportunity for themselves - the first time they release loan units onto the aftermarket they'll be highly sought after, and practically as liquid as already having the cash in their Assetz account... an opportunity not to be wasted! I don't think it'll work this way. Sure, some small part will be taken by those that want some fraction of every loan at whatever cost, but that demand won't be much compared to £3.4m. Maybe they could shift £34k or 1% that way, but what's the point? When all the green energy account advertising takes off then I think it could slowly shift through the auto-invest, but that'll probably take quite a time to build up. More likely is that this is a small part of their portfolio and they are not too worried about liquidity.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Nov 22, 2014 21:31:06 GMT
I don't think it'll work this way. Sure, some small part will be taken by those that want some fraction of every loan at whatever cost, but that demand won't be much compared to £3.4m. Maybe they could shift £34k or 1% that way, but what's the point? They get 9.5% before they sell and 0% after they sell. The most applicable target of the "what's the point" question seems to me "what's the point of selling before they need to?". If they've no need for the cash yet, there's no reason I can see for them to sell... the new "target" based system would tend to mean that once demand is there it'll stay there (give or take any short-term variations in immediately-available cash from potential buyers).
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Nov 23, 2014 0:04:41 GMT
... the new "target" based system would tend to mean that once demand is there it'll stay there (give or take any short-term variations in immediately-available cash from potential buyers). Here's an interesting thought... AC no doubt could look into their system and see how much unsatisfied demand there is for any given loan. And they also could see how much of that is funded and how much of that isn't. Might they provide that info to their underwriters? Might they provide that info to us if we asked nicely? It certainly would help people have an idea about which loans to sell if they needed to raise money. And possibly give an indication how likely it might be to raise a given amount of cash. Or is that just a load of wishful thinking?
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duck
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Post by duck on Nov 23, 2014 6:10:32 GMT
... the new "target" based system would tend to mean that once demand is there it'll stay there (give or take any short-term variations in immediately-available cash from potential buyers). Here's an interesting thought... AC no doubt could look into their system and see how much unsatisfied demand there is for any given loan. And they also could see how much of that is funded and how much of that isn't. Might they provide that info to their underwriters? Might they provide that info to us if we asked nicely? It certainly would help people have an idea about which loans to sell if they needed to raise money. And possibly give an indication how likely it might be to raise a given amount of cash. Or is that just a load of wishful thinking? IMHO if that approach was taken it would be misleading and could/would underestimate the demand.
I have set target levels to figures that my current levels of funding could cover (so a couple of hundred £). These targets do not necessarily represent the total level that I would want to hold but I don't want all the funds to be sucked instantly into one loan and then miss (potentially) some of the others whilst I wait for new funds to be added (I miss the days of instant funding). OK I could add 'dead money' to cover the off chance that a large amount of certain loans would be released onto the market but I would prefer to keep it in the RS monthly market making on average 2.6% knowing that the repayments most days would cover my AC requirements.
I suppose the old saying "A Duck in the hand is worth ....." but I doubt if I am the only one who runs their accounts in this way.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 23, 2014 9:46:11 GMT
Given the comment near the start of the thread about it being underwritten by "a sole person who liked the loan and was prepared to underwrite it in full", it seems quite likely that loan units will become available only when that individual finds something else they like sufficiently to cause them to want to liquidate this one. I would also note that the underwriter in question has created a one-off opportunity for themselves - the first time they release loan units onto the aftermarket they'll be highly sought after, and practically as liquid as already having the cash in their Assetz account... an opportunity not to be wasted! they are not too worried about liquidity. Or diversification? Wish I had a portfolio like that
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Dec 6, 2014 9:54:11 GMT
Now showing "Investments are currently paused on this loan due to a late repayment".
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Dec 6, 2014 17:09:57 GMT
Now showing "Investments are currently paused on this loan due to a late repayment".
AC have been asked for an explanation in the Q&A.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Dec 6, 2014 17:57:54 GMT
Now showing "Investments are currently paused on this loan due to a late repayment".
AC have been asked for an explanation in the Q&A. Pleased I'm not holding £3m of this
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Dec 6, 2014 18:52:09 GMT
AC have been asked for an explanation in the Q&A. Pleased I'm not holding £3m of this I wouldn't mind having it.
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