lobster
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Post by lobster on Mar 31, 2019 9:43:29 GMT
A general election is now a possibility, and if not now, then the next general election will take place some time before May 2022, which is only 37 months away and definitely very relevant for anyone, say, taking on a 60 month P2P loan. According to Betfair , the winner is close to a 50/50 call between Labour and Conservatives.
Just wondering what the impact of a Labour government would be on P2P ? Broadly speaking, Labour are seen as "bad for business", and if this is a fair comment does "bad for business" also mean "bad for P2P" ?
Perhaps the outcome would be different across different types of P2P loans eg buy-to-let, commercial mortgage, development loan, bridging, renewables etc etc.
My own 2p's worth ? Well, usually we can expect an increased level of taxation under Labour, which can hardly be positive for P2P, but more worryingly still would be increased interest rates, obviously putting upward pressure on mortgage rates and loan rates in general. I can't help thinking that the P2P default rate could well spike significantly higher under a Labour government.
Any thoughts ? Thanks.
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bg
Member of DD Central
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Post by bg on Mar 31, 2019 9:51:29 GMT
A general election is now a possibility, and if not now, then the next general election will take place some time before May 2022, which is only 37 months away and definitely very relevant for anyone, say, taking on a 60 month P2P loan. According to Betfair , the winner is close to a 50/50 call between Labour and Conservatives. Just wondering what the impact of a Labour government would be on P2P ? Broadly speaking, Labour are seen as "bad for business", and if this is a fair comment does "bad for business" also mean "bad for P2P" ? Perhaps the outcome would be different across different types of P2P loans eg buy-to-let, commercial mortgage, development loan, bridging, renewables etc etc. My own 2p's worth ? Well, usually we can expect an increased level of taxation under Labour, which can hardly be positive for P2P, but more worryingly still would be increased interest rates, obviously putting upward pressure on mortgage rates and loan rates in general. I can't help thinking that the P2P default rate could well spike significantly higher under a Labour government. Any thoughts ? Thanks. UK asset prices would fall dramatically. That would be terrible for P2P (as the value of the security would be much less). On top of that, of course there is an economy in recession, high inflation, capital flight, anti business policy, low confidence and higher taxation. All bad for business and P2P.
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Mar 31, 2019 11:24:42 GMT
... Broadly speaking, Labour are seen as "bad for business"... That may have been the received wisdom in recent decades but I'm not so sure that this is still the case. Remember that one popular Tory front-runner for the PM role (probably a shoo-in if MPs allow his name on the ballot to members) was recently quoted as saying "F**k business". The current shower are so reckless that, frankly, anything could happen. ETA: I'm sufficiently uncertain about what will happen over the next few years that I won't take on ANY loan or other investment that runs more than 2 years ahead. It's just not worth the risk, IMHO, and that has nothing to do with whether the next government is blue, red, or (more likely) striped.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2019 12:26:16 GMT
The shadow chancellor has made it clear. Everything you own is "OURS" not yours.
It would be classic socialism, no Nato, no EU. Since I would like to end my life gently rather than on the streets could you all please not vote for the Islington Trotts.
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KoR_Wraith
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Post by KoR_Wraith on Mar 31, 2019 13:13:58 GMT
I would forward that determined no-dealers of the current Conservative government are a greater threat to UK business & P2P than the socialist leanings of Labour.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2019 13:56:34 GMT
I would forward that determined no-dealers of the current Conservative government are a greater threat to UK business & P2P than the socialist leanings of Labour. An interesting point and certainly I have been un-impressed but no I reject your proposal
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registerme
Member of DD Central
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Post by registerme on Mar 31, 2019 13:58:00 GMT
I would forward that determined no-dealers of the current Conservative government are a greater threat to UK business & P2P than the socialist leanings of Labour. They both terrify me. EDIT: Thanks for the spot cb25 
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Post by samford71 on Mar 31, 2019 14:10:45 GMT
I would forward that determined no-dealers of the current Conservative government are a greater threat to UK business & P2P than the socialist leanings of Labour. Not sure. I would say that the Brexit Ultras may well be a greater threat to the standard of living of at least 90% (possibly 99%) of the population than a single-term under Corbyn. Against multiple terms of a Corbyn type government then it just becomes a case of most of the population being destroyed in both scenarios.
As for businesses, it depends on what type of business you are talking about. SMEs probably do better under a single term of Corbyn than under the Tory Ultras. Asset strippers, vulture funds (and the finance industry more generally) will prefer the "disaster capitalism" of the Ultras. Plus there will be a lot of money to be made out the privatization of the NHS. I can see US healthcare companies make a killing (possibly quite literally).
I suppose under Corbyn, P2P might be more regulated. Under the Ultras is might become even more like the Wild West (if that's actually possible).
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Post by df on Mar 31, 2019 16:11:56 GMT
A general election is now a possibility, and if not now, then the next general election will take place some time before May 2022, which is only 37 months away and definitely very relevant for anyone, say, taking on a 60 month P2P loan. According to Betfair , the winner is close to a 50/50 call between Labour and Conservatives. Just wondering what the impact of a Labour government would be on P2P ? Broadly speaking, Labour are seen as "bad for business", and if this is a fair comment does "bad for business" also mean "bad for P2P" ? Perhaps the outcome would be different across different types of P2P loans eg buy-to-let, commercial mortgage, development loan, bridging, renewables etc etc. My own 2p's worth ? Well, usually we can expect an increased level of taxation under Labour, which can hardly be positive for P2P, but more worryingly still would be increased interest rates, obviously putting upward pressure on mortgage rates and loan rates in general. I can't help thinking that the P2P default rate could well spike significantly higher under a Labour government. Any thoughts ? Thanks. It comes across as a broad view because of how it is presented by mainstream media. Many people have a lot of trust in opinions (often presented as facts) delivered to them through the channels they are comfortable with... Let's assume that Labour will win next GE. If this happens, it is very likely to be a coalition to have a majority government. This is what they propose labour.org.uk/manifesto/creating-economy-works/ . To implement what is set there they will require support from their own MP's and others (whoever that might be). Successful or not, it will take a very long time, so I wouldn't expect any imminent changes. Assuming all this is going to happen. I don't think it will have a significant impact on p2p industry. SME's will still be trading, consumers will be borrowing, developers developing and landlords will have tenants. I can't see any reason to panic.
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cb25
Posts: 3,528
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Post by cb25 on Mar 31, 2019 16:35:39 GMT
I would forward that determined no-dealers of the current Conservative government are a greater threat to UK business & P2P than the socialist leanings of Labour. Not sure. I would say that the Brexit Ultras may well be a greater threat to the standard of living of at least 90% (possibly 99%) of the population than a single-term under Corbyn. Against multiple terms of a Corbyn type government then it just becomes a case of most of the population being destroyed in both scenarios.
As for businesses, it depends on what type of business you are talking about. SMEs probably do better under a single term of Corbyn than under the Tory Ultras. Asset strippers, vulture funds (and the finance industry more generally) will prefer the "disaster capitalism" of the Ultras. Plus there will be a lot of money to be made out the privatization of the NHS. I can see US healthcare companies make a killing (possibly quite literally).
I suppose under Corbyn, P2P might be more regulated. Under the Ultras is might become even more like the Wild West (if that's actually possible).
I see we've started the April Fools stories a little early this year.
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Post by df on Mar 31, 2019 17:47:53 GMT
I would forward that determined no-dealers of the current Conservative government are a greater threat to UK business & P2P than the socialist leanings of Labour. Not sure. I would say that the Brexit Ultras may well be a greater threat to the standard of living of at least 90% (possibly 99%) of the population than a single-term under Corbyn. Against multiple terms of a Corbyn type government then it just becomes a case of most of the population being destroyed in both scenarios.
As for businesses, it depends on what type of business you are talking about. SMEs probably do better under a single term of Corbyn than under the Tory Ultras. Asset strippers, vulture funds (and the finance industry more generally) will prefer the "disaster capitalism" of the Ultras. Plus there will be a lot of money to be made out the privatization of the NHS. I can see US healthcare companies make a killing (possibly quite literally).
I suppose under Corbyn, P2P might be more regulated. Under the Ultras is might become even more like the Wild West (if that's actually possible).
I think it will take more than one term to reverse far enough to see the benefit. SME's should do better under Corbyn's government. Consumer loans' sector could gain if living standards are improved. There's never a shortage of individuals who want more than they can afford and it's easier to borrow with stable income rather than zero-hour contracts. Bling/pawn sector shouldn't be affected by politics. Saving Stream type of bridging/development has already been in crisis for a while - I don't think any politician can fix that.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Mar 31, 2019 18:17:42 GMT
Not worth worrying about
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