trium
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Post by trium on Apr 3, 2019 17:12:53 GMT
I have been with FS now for just over 12 months (my very first loan is still outstanding!). I came with the intention of amassing 100 loans before increasing ny standard loan amount - this is in line with Godanubis's <1% in any loan - however after 12 months I have found it impossible. I have 62 unique loans (counting multiple tranches/additionals/supplementaries as single loans) and I wonder how Godanubis manages to keep his exposures <1%. Mine vary from 1.6% to 4.8%.
It's not lack of funds that has held me back - it's lack of loans. Just 52 unique loans on SM right now (including some I'd never buy at the cheeky premiums sought), 5 on PM, I'm excluded from 3 because of minimum bids, I dislike 2nd charges and I'm already in everything else. The only way I'll get to 100 loans is to wait until I have 100 lates (currently 29)
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Apr 3, 2019 19:01:23 GMT
I have been with FS now for just over 12 months (my very first loan is still outstanding!). I came with the intention of amassing 100 loans before increasing ny standard loan amount - this is in line with Godanubis's <1% in any loan - however after 12 months I have found it impossible. I have 62 unique loans (counting multiple tranches/additionals/supplementaries as single loans) and I wonder how Godanubis manages to keep his exposures <1%. Mine vary from 1.6% to 4.8%. It's not lack of funds that has held me back - it's lack of loans. Just 52 unique loans on SM right now (including some I'd never buy at the cheeky premiums sought), 5 on PM, I'm excluded from 3 because of minimum bids, I dislike 2nd charges and I'm already in everything else. The only way I'll get to 100 loans is to wait until I have 100 lates (currently 29) Good that you are trying hard to reduce your exposure to individual loans. As I previously said I maintain slightly higher overall returns by not holding much for very long. Every loan I have is for sale 24/7. Rarely would it be at -1% unless I want to reduce a holding. I do buy small amounts at Higher APR’s at the end. But only in loans I think are reasonable. I don’t get fixated as some do on the loans being late. If they are 24mths late I write them of mentally until then I don’t bother. My current oldest loan is about £500 in Whitehaven which is just coming up to 24months . I wrote that off months ago. Nothing else is nearing it’s 2 year timeframe. Even then the actual losses are rarely above 40% of sum invested. If overall I make a profit I’m happy. Currently overall even with S&S dropping 15% (now returning nearly to profit) I have a nice profit. Unless you rely on regular returns then taking a long term view usually turns out fine in the end. Beating the Bank and avoiding the tax man leads to contentment.
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Post by df on Apr 3, 2019 20:03:41 GMT
I have been with FS now for just over 12 months (my very first loan is still outstanding!). I came with the intention of amassing 100 loans before increasing ny standard loan amount - this is in line with Godanubis's <1% in any loan - however after 12 months I have found it impossible. I have 62 unique loans (counting multiple tranches/additionals/supplementaries as single loans) and I wonder how Godanubis manages to keep his exposures <1%. Mine vary from 1.6% to 4.8%. It's not lack of funds that has held me back - it's lack of loans. Just 52 unique loans on SM right now (including some I'd never buy at the cheeky premiums sought), 5 on PM, I'm excluded from 3 because of minimum bids, I dislike 2nd charges and I'm already in everything else. The only way I'll get to 100 loans is to wait until I have 100 lates (currently 29) I think it is about 12 months since the loan flow started slowing down, or at least when I've noticed it? My funds in FS have reduced by 45% since March 2018 - it wasn't because I suddenly decided to get out, but an organic consequence of lower loan supply. ATM I have 113 "unique" across 2 accounts. I have no time or desire to boil it down to a single loan/borrower and "pawn-doubles", but I think my current FS involvement amounts to about 60 loans (excl multiples).
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Apr 4, 2019 0:22:46 GMT
I have some money in about 300 of the current 2600+ active loans. 30 in default. Still quite happy with risk/reward ratio at the moment. There is always room for quicker/Bigger recoveries.
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trium
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Post by trium on Apr 4, 2019 4:55:52 GMT
I have some money in about 300 of the current 2600+ active loans. 30 in default. Still quite happy with risk/reward ratio at the moment. There is always room for quicker/Bigger recoveries. At the present time there are indeed 2623 loans but they are certainly not all active. Only 446 are so marked and as far as I can ascertain only 218 remain after multiple tranches/supplementary loans are stripped out. Add to that the 77 Unredeemed loans (boiling down to 38) since those are at least as active as some of the "active" ones. Of course the lion's share of these can no longer be traded. If you're in 300 that would suggest suggest two things - one that you're in some loans several times and two that you've accumulated many of these loans through going late (hence my remark about waiting till I have 100 lates). I exclude multiple tranches etc since if you have 1% exposure in each of 3 tranches you can't really claim to have kept to a 1% limit - you have 3% in that project.
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pip
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Post by pip on Apr 4, 2019 7:32:07 GMT
“I don’t get fixated as some do on the loans being late. If they are 24mths late I write them of mentally until then I don’t bother.”
Hmm, sounds a recipe for self delusion and disaster for me.
Fine if you want to employ this tactic yourself, but please don’t tell others you are ‘making’ 16% and advertise yourself as some sort of sage. Booking profits up front and letting loss making assets sit on the balance sheet at full purchase price has long been the trusted recipe of black holes appearing in accounts.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Apr 4, 2019 15:44:15 GMT
“I don’t get fixated as some do on the loans being late. If they are 24mths late I write them of mentally until then I don’t bother.” Hmm, sounds a recipe for self delusion and disaster for me. Fine if you want to employ this tactic yourself, but please don’t tell others you are ‘making’ 16% and advertise yourself as some sort of sage. Booking profits up front and letting loss making assets sit on the balance sheet at full purchase price has long been the trusted recipe of black holes appearing in accounts. Wake up and smell the coffee. The % of Loans that actually made a loss rather than your fantasy Loans that will be carried to the dump on the back of your unicorns is very small. I can happily supply the figures. Again I ask you oh wise one show me an overall loss on 1% max in any loan (traunches = 1%/no ) . If you can’t and nobody has managed that yet. Stop fixating on loss Overall return is all that matters.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Apr 4, 2019 15:53:47 GMT
I have some money in about 300 of the current 2600+ active loans. 30 in default. Still quite happy with risk/reward ratio at the moment. There is always room for quicker/Bigger recoveries. At the present time there are indeed 2623 loans but they are certainly not all active. Only 446 are so marked and as far as I can ascertain only 218 remain after multiple tranches/supplementary loans are stripped out. Add to that the 77 Unredeemed loans (boiling down to 38) since those are at least as active as some of the "active" ones. Of course the lion's share of these can no longer be traded. If you're in 300 that would suggest suggest two things - one that you're in some loans several times and two that you've accumulated many of these loans through going late (hence my remark about waiting till I have 100 lates). I exclude multiple tranches etc since if you have 1% exposure in each of 3 tranches you can't really claim to have kept to a 1% limit - you have 3% in that project. The 1% is not what is held just used to trade. Traunches count as one loan and if held cumulatively add up to max of 1% Currently by searching Active on all loans Shows 446. Uncompleaded Loans I count as active as the will probably give some return. Only 1 of those is near my 24month limit before adding to minus column. Taking the loans you have held that paid back what is your ROI. Actual payments and losses not any predictions. Thanks
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pip
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Post by pip on Apr 4, 2019 16:45:11 GMT
“I don’t get fixated as some do on the loans being late. If they are 24mths late I write them of mentally until then I don’t bother.” Hmm, sounds a recipe for self delusion and disaster for me. Fine if you want to employ this tactic yourself, but please don’t tell others you are ‘making’ 16% and advertise yourself as some sort of sage. Booking profits up front and letting loss making assets sit on the balance sheet at full purchase price has long been the trusted recipe of black holes appearing in accounts. "The % of Loans that actually made a loss rather than your fantasy Loans that will be carried to the dump on the back of your unicorns is very small" Does that translate to "I think only a very small % of my overdue loans will not fully repay". Even if this is true, which we can debate till we are blue in the face and we wont get anywhere as only the future will tell us reality, then the 16% return you quote is still totally incorrect as it makes no allowance for ANY of these loans to not repay in full. The only fantasy is the %'s you quote and accompanying accounting methods.
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trium
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Post by trium on Apr 4, 2019 22:20:11 GMT
Over the 12 months I've been here 90 loans have paid back/been sold. XIRR function on the cashflows in and out of these loans (and so not taking account of time awaiting re-investment) produces 13.3% (compound annualised).
I have two Unredeemed loans which, with 100% loss, would cut me down to 4.5% but I am confident that won't arise and I expect eventually to fall somewhere between the two extremes. I am not unhappy with my FS returns but I'm concerned about the current loan flow. I always seem to have cash on hand for which I can't find a home that passes muster.
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Post by Ace on Apr 4, 2019 23:32:56 GMT
Over the 12 months I've been here 90 loans have paid back/been sold. XIRR function on the cashflows in and out of these loans (and so not taking account of time awaiting re-investment) produces 13.3% (compound annualised). I have two Unredeemed loans which, with 100% loss, would cut me down to 4.5% but I am confident that won't arise and I expect eventually to fall somewhere between the two extremes. I am not unhappy with my FS returns but I'm concerned about the current loan flow. I always seem to have cash on hand for which I can't find a home that passes muster. Any particular reason that you don't include cash drag? I always do, as I feel it's an essential factor in measuring the true performance. It makes quite a difference on some platforms.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Apr 4, 2019 23:58:38 GMT
Over the 12 months I've been here 90 loans have paid back/been sold. XIRR function on the cashflows in and out of these loans (and so not taking account of time awaiting re-investment) produces 13.3% (compound annualised). I have two Unredeemed loans which, with 100% loss, would cut me down to 4.5% but I am confident that won't arise and I expect eventually to fall somewhere between the two extremes. I am not unhappy with my FS returns but I'm concerned about the current loan flow. I always seem to have cash on hand for which I can't find a home that passes muster. Any particular reason that you don't include cash drag? I always do, as I feel it's an essential factor in measuring the true performance. It makes quite a difference on some platforms. 60% cash drag on Welendus certainly affect my brother’s return. You are correct loss on interest on interest bought does reduce the highest returns over time but never a huge amount. My point was to show losses currently actual completed loan loans is not that high and returns are usually twice at least that of most P2P 5-8% actual returns all are compounded so monthly paying platforms have slight advantage but the ability to get rid of tax liabilities on FS far outweighs others and you can actually compound on a daily basis when SM is a bit more active.
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trium
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Post by trium on Apr 5, 2019 2:03:32 GMT
Oh, I do in my regular books but I was specifically asked about returns on completed loans and it's difficult to determine just where the cash used to buy a particular loan came from and when. Overall, based on cashflows into my account, valuing loans at par without accrued interest, my annualised return is currently 4.1%. Not brilliant, but this is a young account and earnings have yet to be realised - plus if you're building up a book on the SM earnings are generally negative until you start cashing out again.
If accrued interest is included the AER is 13.3%, coincidentally the same as the return on completed loans and slightly higher than the average return on individual loans despite the cash drag (this is down to cash-backs/SM profits).
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