What could happen to returns...

Accroding to FC' stress test scenarios and results written in Sept 2016:-

www.fundingcircle.com/blog/category/how-funding-circle-works/

Expected lifetime return is 5.8% in FC stress scenario as Small business defaults rate doubles. So are we already in FC stress scenario? In the extreme stress scneario, expected lifetime return would be 3.9%, somehow is closed to the lower end of the revised return of conservative portfolio. 

I suppose individual performance is different due to the nature of FC blackbox system, and hence the projected return have a variance like 2% for balanced portfolio.