adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 29, 2019 8:50:44 GMT
Someone should tip Hammo off the terrace of the House of Commons if they want to facilitate a successful leave as he is the proverbial African American in the woodpile who has been restricting prep funding over the years. I would be quite pleased to see him floating in a sack down to Tilbury. Yes, let's all suggest murdering politicians we disagree with - and who could pass the opportunity for such a thinly-veiled allusion with it? Fertheloveofgawd. I'm reminded of a certain St Nige's post-referendum comment about "without a single bullet being fired". Conveniently forgetting one had been, in Birstall. www.facebook.com/watch/?v=10153841101771939Be careful what you wish for, you may get it.
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travolta
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Post by travolta on May 29, 2019 8:52:17 GMT
We've used the EU vote to indicate how non rep the major parties are, so if forced into another referendum the card should read leave with no deal or remain . Should remain win the EU will probably kick us out because our EUMPs are so bolshe. I would vote to remain just to get up Macrons nez.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on May 29, 2019 8:52:48 GMT
I can't see why the Tories would want to hold a second referendum, as no outcome is going to satisfy the Leave voters and hold the Tory party together. -Leave on no-deal: some Leave voters happy, others not so, big risk of Tory party splitting -May's deal (unfinished, could edge back closer to the EU) or Remain: lots of Leave voters unhappy, smaller risk of Tory party splitting.
Tories are already going down the plughole electorally in terms of being able to win an outright majority at the next GE, holding a second referendum will just make that worse. At the last GE, Tories had a rubbish manifesto - but were promising to Leave - and failed to get an outright majority. Next GE, Tories will probably have another rubbish manifesto - but this time voters will know they didn't/won't deliver Leave - hence doomed.
I don't see the Brexit party being able to mirror their EU election results at the next GE (lack of Manifesto etc.) or being able to get lots of MPs (as FPTP will work against them), but I do see the Tories losing sufficient votes at the next GE to keep them well away from power. If the Brexit party get lots of votes but very few MPs, Tories won't even be able to form a coalition with them. More likely there'll be a Labour lead coalition.
If a second referendum happens, so be it, I expect Remain to win, Tories to implode and UK politics to get even more interesting.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 29, 2019 8:58:35 GMT
We've used the EU vote to indicate how non rep the major parties are, so if forced into another referendum the card should read leave with no deal or remain . Should remain win the EU will probably kick us out because our EUMPs are so bolshe. I would vote to remain just to get up Macrons nez. I think that is looking more likely TM's deal is dead, and the EU just will not renegotiate, no matter what potential Tory leaders would like to see Boris has backed himself in a corner to leave under all circs by October 31 Parliament will come up with some way of blocking a no deal exit Boris will as a result (reluctantly) call a no deal v remain referendum If no deal leave loses, we revoke A50 and start again (if we dare). The alternative is no deal happens by default (or royal prerogative) as EU won't extend again in Oct.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on May 29, 2019 9:02:13 GMT
We've used the EU vote to indicate how non rep the major parties are, so if forced into another referendum the card should read leave with no deal or remain . Should remain win the EU will probably kick us out because our EUMPs are so bolshe. I would vote to remain just to get up Macrons nez. I think that is looking more likely TM's deal is dead, and the EU just will not renegotiate, no matter what potential Tory leaders would like to see Boris has backed himself in a corner to leave under all circs by October 31 Parliament will come up with some way of blocking a no deal exit Boris will as a result (reluctantly) call a no deal v remain referendum If no deal leave loses, we revoke A50 and start again (if we dare). The alternative is no deal happens by default (or royal prerogative) as EU won't extend again in Oct. Clearly, once Remain had won there would be no popular mandate for "and start again". Result: happy Remainers, bye bye Tory party.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 29, 2019 9:04:43 GMT
I can't see why the Tories would want to hold a second referendum, as no outcome is going to satisfy the Leave voters and hold the Tory party together. -Leave on no-deal: some Leave voters happy, others not so, big risk of Tory party splitting -May's deal (unfinished, could edge back closer to the EU) or Remain: lots of Leave voters unhappy, smaller risk of Tory party splitting.
Tories are already going down the plughole electorally in terms of being able to win an outright majority at the next GE, holding a second referendum will just make that worse. At the last GE, Tories had a rubbish manifesto - but were promising to Leave - and failed to get an outright majority. Next GE, Tories will probably have another rubbish manifesto - but this time voters will know they didn't/won't deliver Leave - hence doomed.
I don't see the Brexit party being able to mirror their EU election results at the next GE (lack of Manifesto etc.) or being able to get lots of MPs (as FPTP will work against them), but I do see the Tories losing sufficient votes at the next GE to keep them well away from power. If the Brexit party get lots of votes but very few MPs, Tories won't even be able to form a coalition with them. More likely there'll be a Labour lead coalition.
If a second referendum happens, so be it, I expect Remain to win, Tories to implode and UK politics to get even more interesting.
The argument goes that the Tories fear a general election more than a referendum. But yes, they are really in big trouble - all of their own doing it must be said.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 29, 2019 9:10:16 GMT
I think that is looking more likely TM's deal is dead, and the EU just will not renegotiate, no matter what potential Tory leaders would like to see Boris has backed himself in a corner to leave under all circs by October 31 Parliament will come up with some way of blocking a no deal exit Boris will as a result (reluctantly) call a no deal v remain referendum If no deal leave loses, we revoke A50 and start again (if we dare). The alternative is no deal happens by default (or royal prerogative) as EU won't extend again in Oct. Clearly, once Remain had won there would be no popular mandate for "and start again". Result: happy Remainers, bye bye Tory party. The argument might be that Leave with a (different) deal might win v remain. I would expect the europhobes/eurosceptics to continue to agitate just as they have since 1973, and unless lessons have been learnt, to eventually have their day again at some point in the future when the stars realign. But I also think the above scenario leading to remain is less likely than leaving, as things stand.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on May 29, 2019 9:14:52 GMT
Be careful what you wish for, you may get it. Unless you wish for Brexit?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 29, 2019 9:19:13 GMT
Be careful what you wish for, you may get it. Unless you wish for Brexit? ..."may"... You can have Brexit, tomorrow. But only at massive expense to the country's economy and to our relationships with our neighbours and closest trading partners. Take your pick. Parliament have made a choice - and I believe the apposite phrase there is "You lost, get over it". Wishing for unicorns that fart rainbow glitter doesn't work, either.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 29, 2019 9:22:46 GMT
I think that is looking more likely TM's deal is dead, and the EU just will not renegotiate, no matter what potential Tory leaders would like to see Boris has backed himself in a corner to leave under all circs by October 31 Parliament will come up with some way of blocking a no deal exit Boris will as a result (reluctantly) call a no deal v remain referendum If no deal leave loses, we revoke A50 and start again (if we dare). The alternative is no deal happens by default (or royal prerogative) as EU won't extend again in Oct. Clearly, once Remain had won there would be no popular mandate for "and start again". Result: happy Remainers, bye bye Tory party. Perhaps there would be, if only the Leave campaign had actually pushed for what they said they were going to do, instead of pushing for the exact opposite. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38833883
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on May 29, 2019 9:28:12 GMT
Unless you wish for Brexit? Take your pick. I thought we had already taken our pick.
The problem appears to be that some people want more picks than others.
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Post by bracknellboy on May 29, 2019 9:34:25 GMT
I thought we had already taken our pick.
The problem appears to be that some people want more picks than others. I think the issue not been the judicious use of picks, but rather far too many people have tackled the problem armed with very large shovels.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 29, 2019 9:45:56 GMT
You can have Brexit, tomorrow. But only at massive expense to the country's economy and to our relationships with our neighbours and closest trading partners. Take your pick. Parliament have made a choice - and I believe the apposite phrase there is "You lost, get over it". Wishing for unicorns that fart rainbow glitter doesn't work, either. I thought we had already taken our pick.
The problem appears to be that some people want more picks than others. No, the decision was for a vague direction with zero detail. Nobody has yet decided the important detail of HOW to implement that vague direction. Right now, there are two options on the table. The people whose job is to choose have said "no" to both already. One of them is the result of three years of negotiation led by people who shouted loudly for that vague direction. Not many people want the other, either, which comes at an inevitably heavy economic and relationship toll, and which is not only against the few vague assurances made in promoting that vague direction, but was absolutely flatly ruled out during that promotion. There are no other options at all, currently, and the people you'd need to agree other options with don't want to re-open those negotiations.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on May 29, 2019 10:22:53 GMT
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ozboy
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Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
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Post by ozboy on May 29, 2019 10:29:29 GMT
I'd like to see a counter claim against the Government's assertions that Leaving was going to cost every family in the UK £500 pa or some-such, and gradually escalated as they got increasingly panicky to costing £5,000 per week or some similar stupidity. I use hyperbole for effect of course. Oh, and Tax payers money was used to fund it. I have said before and we all know, both sides lied shamefully. It's called politics.
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