KoR_Wraith
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Post by KoR_Wraith on Jul 14, 2020 11:28:52 GMT
I think that Tesla's share price is due a huge downwards correction in the near to mid future, however, to short such a hot stock is very risky.
As the old adage goes, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
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cwah
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Jul 14, 2020 11:31:15 GMT
Post by cwah on Jul 14, 2020 11:31:15 GMT
And by the way, my worse investment performance was buying the FTSE100 and FTSE250 index. Trying to buy diversified UK stock was one of my worse decision and it dropped so much and I just hope it'll recover someday.... Buying good stock is much better decision Yes, my holdings of VUKE (Vanguard UK) are only trumped in their crappiness by Vanguard UK equity income (high dividend). But, as part of a diversified portfolio...etc etc. You never know, the UK could blow out the lights in the next few years, what with all of these glorious trade opportunities we have on the table. I wonder if anyone actually believes that still? Anyway, I'm having a rare buy today with Halifax commission countdown (which starts right now, 12:15 as it happens). Going to buy some Vanguard Europe. My logic being that the Euro-denominated variant (AMS:VEUR) is still 16% off all time highs and was pretty undervalued (by CAPE) anyway even at ATH's. That, plus it's unhedged, and as much as I try I can't bring myself to believe that Sterling is going to recover any time soon. Quite the opposite in fact. I'm basically buying at even "hmmm" value levels to mitigate currency risk (only as I'm mostly abroad, otherwise I wouldn't fear imported inflation that much). edit: trailing yield of 3.6% is pretty high too, though I'd imagine I'll be seeing little of that in the near future. Long term hold though. I've decided to convert half of my portfolio in USD after march crash when I saw the GBP lose 10% in matter of days. And now I still wonder why I thought that what goes down will go up with UK index. I bought them because they look cheap. But in a world of infinite money supply, when a stock is cheap it means it's likely to go lower. In the 2 years I bought VUKE / VMID it either went sideway or went down. Lately it's very down and when the S&P is almost back to pre-crash level, the FTSE keeps going down...
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cwah
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Jul 14, 2020 11:36:23 GMT
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Post by cwah on Jul 14, 2020 11:36:23 GMT
I think that Tesla's share price is due a huge downwards correction in the near to mid future, however, to short such a hot stock is very risky. As the old adage goes, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. If it goes to the S&P, I'm quite confident it's going to stay high in the mid future. Basically all pensions, institutions and index across the world would suddenly buy in without considering fundamental. Just as part of an index %
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sd2
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Jul 14, 2020 11:36:47 GMT
Post by sd2 on Jul 14, 2020 11:36:47 GMT
Surely Tesla is in a ludicrous share price bubble right now? From a pre-COVID peak of $917 a share in Feb 2020, all the way down to $430 in mid-March, and now trading at $1728 (up 12% today). I mean, yeah, electric cars great and all, but a quadrupling of valuation in 4 months? cwah you like a punt, buy or sell at this point? To me Tesla is a car company nothing more nothing less. It is throwing in self drive technology but is that a game changer? They are not the only ones going down that route. Uber and Google also. The difference is I don't believe Google is going to go into car production. They are going to sell there technology to other car companies, like Dyson for instance. Further more it's long way of before it will be standard. I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole, an extra long one. Nor would i put my money into growth investment trusts with bias towards technology which invest in the larger companies Tesla Microsoft Amazon. This is not a statement that they aren't good growth companies with lots of growth in front them, just that it can't go on forever (high growth) and they appear to be overvalued,. Tesla in particular. Amazon is a conglomerate the parts are worth more than the whole....except in the case Amazon!! I have bought Smithson investment Trust (not enough though). Global growth smaller companies. To date doing well. Herald investment Trust maybe an option for me but 50% UK and over 200 companies? Edinburgh Worldwide supposedly smaller companies but they run them so have some of the biggies in there. Scottish mortgage investment Trust and Allianz have done so well over 5 and 10 years but to many biggies. Now Smith's other investment Trust FUNDSMITH EMERGING EQUITIES TRUST. (A growth Trust in emerging markets) is exactly what I would want...alas an out out dog up 10% over 5 years. How dire is that. I watch it and see if they manage a turn around.
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cwah
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Jul 14, 2020 11:44:24 GMT
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Post by cwah on Jul 14, 2020 11:44:24 GMT
Surely Tesla is in a ludicrous share price bubble right now? From a pre-COVID peak of $917 a share in Feb 2020, all the way down to $430 in mid-March, and now trading at $1728 (up 12% today). I mean, yeah, electric cars great and all, but a quadrupling of valuation in 4 months? cwah you like a punt, buy or sell at this point? To me Tesla is a car company nothing more nothing less. It is throwing in self drive technology but is that a game changer? They are not the only ones going down that route. Uber and Google also. The difference is I don't believe Google is going to go into car production. They are going to sell there technology to other car companies, like Dyson for instance. Further more it's long way of before it will be standard. I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole, an extra long one. Nor would i put my money into growth investment trusts with bias towards technology which invest in the larger companies Tesla Microsoft Amazon. This is not a statement that they aren't good growth companies with lots of growth in front them, just that it can't go on forever (high growth) and they appear to be overvalued,. Tesla in particular. Amazon is a conglomerate the parts are worth more than the whole....except in the case Amazon!! I have bought Smithson investment Trust (not enough though). Global growth smaller companies. To date doing well. Herald investment Trust maybe an option for me but 50% UK and over 200 companies? Edinburgh Worldwide supposedly smaller companies but they run them so have some of the biggies in there. Scottish mortgage investment Trust and Allianz have done so well over 5 and 10 years but to many biggies. Now Smith's other investment Trust FUNDSMITH EMERGING EQUITIES TRUST. (A growth Trust in emerging markets) is exactly what I would want...alas an out out dog up 10% over 5 years. How dire is that. I watch it and see if they manage a turn around. The main difference with Tesla even as a car company is his huge moat: - giga factory allowing to reduce cost of battery - vertically integrated production cost from the material to part to assembly all by the same company to reduce cost - no use of dealership which reduce cost - Pure player in electric so lower production cost than other car manufacturer - huge publicity by social media so they don't do any marketing campaign and lower cost as well - integration with solar city for power delivery and charging at home - automated driving via IA and update on the cloud This is the sort of moat that only Apple, Google or Amazon have by having an entire eco-system locking people in. It looks like more and more people are buying electric and it also seem they are going to remain the number 1 in the foreseable future. So that's a good bet somehow. I'd have put way more if the car price were lower but for now they still target the premium range
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jul 14, 2020 11:53:30 GMT
My gut, and I tend to trust my gut, is that this is an action replay of the tech boom in the 00's. People are speculating wildly on a big mover in a definitely up and coming industry, but we have no idea whether this will be the Amazon or the pets.com, the VHS or Betamax. For a range of reasons, it's quite possible that a nimbler opponent will take the crown.
In any case, my gut also says that I ain't a gambling robot. Low-cost passive index investing for the long term is the tedious but effective mantra.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on Jul 14, 2020 11:54:55 GMT
My gut, and I tend to trust my gut, is that this is an action replay of the tech boom in the 00's. People are speculating wildly on a big mover in a definitely up and coming industry, but we have no idea whether this will be the Amazon or the pets.com, the VHS or Betamax. For a range of reasons, it's quite possible that a nimbler opponent will take the crown. In any case, my gut also says that I ain't a gambling robot. Low-cost passive index investing for the long term is the tedious but effective mantra. As long as your index isn't on the UK stock it may work 🤣
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iRobot
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Jul 14, 2020 12:43:13 GMT
Post by iRobot on Jul 14, 2020 12:43:13 GMT
I think that Tesla's share price is due a huge downwards correction in the near to mid future, however, to short such a hot stock is very risky. As the old adage goes, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. What value industry analysts? Median 12m forecast is for a price some 50% below the current $1500 level. A piece in today's FT comparing Tesla to Amazon. Date for the diary: Q2 2020 Results and Q&A Webcast
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hazellend
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Jul 14, 2020 13:32:32 GMT
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Post by hazellend on Jul 14, 2020 13:32:32 GMT
I think that Tesla's share price is due a huge downwards correction in the near to mid future, however, to short such a hot stock is very risky. As the old adage goes, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. What value industry analysts? Median 12m forecast is for a price some 50% below the current $1500 level. A piece in today's FT comparing Tesla to Amazon. Date for the diary: Q2 2020 Results and Q&A WebcastPretty much zero value from industry analysts, I advise completely ignoring them. Look at Wirecard in Germany for another example of how they know nothing
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KoR_Wraith
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Post by KoR_Wraith on Jul 14, 2020 14:58:54 GMT
If it goes to the S&P, I'm quite confident it's going to stay high in the mid future. Basically all pensions, institutions and index across the world would suddenly buy in without considering fundamental. Just as part of an index % This is widely known and has undoubtedly been a factor in its recent run up - admission to the S&P may in fact lead to a profit taking sell-off, decreasing the price at the same time as institutions and trackers are required to buy-in. *shrug*
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cwah
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Jul 14, 2020 15:08:11 GMT
Post by cwah on Jul 14, 2020 15:08:11 GMT
If it goes to the S&P, I'm quite confident it's going to stay high in the mid future. Basically all pensions, institutions and index across the world would suddenly buy in without considering fundamental. Just as part of an index % This is widely known and has undoubtedly been a factor in its recent run up - admission to the S&P may in fact lead to a profit taking sell-off, decreasing the price at the same time as institutions and trackers are required to buy-in. *shrug* Short term yes. But long term it would grow way faster and higher than without index. Look at Amazon or facebook, price are over the top and keep growing. Index are just piling in independently of fundamentals
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hazellend
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Jul 14, 2020 15:28:47 GMT
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Post by hazellend on Jul 14, 2020 15:28:47 GMT
This is widely known and has undoubtedly been a factor in its recent run up - admission to the S&P may in fact lead to a profit taking sell-off, decreasing the price at the same time as institutions and trackers are required to buy-in. *shrug* Short term yes. But long term it would grow way faster and higher than without index. Look at Amazon or facebook, price are over the top and keep growing. Index are just piling in independently of fundamentals This is not really how it works. Please continue to educate yourself before investing large amounts in individual equities.
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Jul 14, 2020 15:35:25 GMT
Post by bracknellboy on Jul 14, 2020 15:35:25 GMT
Short term yes. But long term it would grow way faster and higher than without index. Look at Amazon or facebook, price are over the top and keep growing. Index are just piling in independently of fundamentals This is not really how it works. Please continue to educate yourself before investing large amounts in individual equities. hazellend have you considered that this might just be a continual stream of windups ?
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hazellend
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Jul 14, 2020 15:36:14 GMT
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Post by hazellend on Jul 14, 2020 15:36:14 GMT
This is not really how it works. Please continue to educate yourself before investing large amounts in individual equities. hazellend have you considered that this might just be a continual stream of windups ? Yes, and I’m easily baited!
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Jul 14, 2020 20:59:50 GMT
In any case, my gut also says that I ain't a gambling robot. Low-cost passive index investing for the long term is the tedious but effective mantra.
Depends on your definition of effective I guess !
Looking at my own portfolios my spread over index over the past eight years is significant double-digits (spread is well in excess of 50%).
So if your definition of effective is maximising return, passive is not going to do it for you, not by a country mile.
However if your defintion is achieving an average return in return for being able to be lazy and put de-minimis effort into your porfolio management, then sure.
The trouble is you see, the rose-tinted passive brigade like to cite the old "active cannot consistently outperform".
But that's not true.
There is a degree of truth to it if you're in a bull market. But that's because in a bull market any old monkey can pick a winner. By definition the index is merely replicating the majority of winners in a bull market (typically on a weighted basis, but that's something for another day). So a passive is lazy man's alpha in a bull market. You won't necessarily make more than a good active manager, but you're unlikely to loose.
However in a volatile market, or a bear market, the passives fall apart rapidly. Meanwhile an active manager (albeit one with an unconstrained mandate) can achieve alpha through asset allocation away from troublesome sectors and equities into those which are better suited for the current environement.
And before you come saying "but ... but... sector ETFs". No. Volatile and bear markets are a prime time for stockpicking, swapping an index for a sub-index is not going to do you much good.
Nonsense. Evidence clearly shows active still does not beat passive in down markets. Congrats on your stellar investment performance, but 95% of professional and amateur active managers will not beat their index. I believe... - the global markets will return enough to meet my long term goal - neither I or anybody else will outperform after costs (not to mention huge amounts of time, which has a financial value, spent on research) my entirely passive portfolio is at an all time high, and anybody with a well diversified global portfolio will be close to their all time high. Buy, hold, keep buying, stay the course, ignore the noise (and bullshit)
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