|
Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2020 9:06:44 GMT
There is a critical characteristic of most gamblers. They remember the wins and forget the losses.
If you remember the Georgian Bank deal and forget the TC deal then I'd worry.
I'd also ask myself the obvious questions to do with "what made me think TC would be a great deal?" etc. Take notes of your deals (I really recommend a fixed leaf book with a pen in your own handwriting) and track what happened. It can make for some pretty self-critical commentary but it will become invaluable over time as you develop your skills.
My advice would be (never take advice from the internet) is don't try to win multi-baggers. Invest in things that you can explain are the right things to invest in with a clear strategy and if, IF, they become multi-baggers then that is a bonus. I invest in some 20 assets but at any one time one or two will be multi-baggers that I never expected or looked for.
|
|
cwah
Member of DD Central
Posts: 949
Likes: 468
|
Stocks
Jul 16, 2020 10:27:47 GMT
Post by cwah on Jul 16, 2020 10:27:47 GMT
Yeah agree with you guys. I actually wrote down in a document the time where I have load of losses to understand why. I tend to be lazy and not do it but I have to.
Invest safe is more important. I tend to be greedy I admit.
I keep telling myself it's better to have small gain or no gain than to have big losses. So I try to sell with this in mind.
For example now there is a drop in the tech sector and I'm losing so much! but I focus on the rational that it's going back up so I'm adding small position in it. I'll trim it down when it's up.
|
|
|
Stocks
Jul 16, 2020 10:40:41 GMT
Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2020 10:40:41 GMT
Interesting to see such a stratagy explained so simply, my similar
- Make a reasonable return ? 90% of the time. Reasonable for me is bare minimum 7% year on year (in a s@ t year) but averages out to 15 to 20% - Recover my book cost ? Maybe 90% of the time. Put my higher risk investments in taxable cash areas so as to maximise HMRC support of losses - Experience a multi-bagger ? Maybe 10% of the time. - 40 years in the game
I invest in assets where the SP has shown a general upward movement (10-30% year on year) for the last 5 years with very little variability. Has a simple story to tell that I can understand, not too much debt or "intangible" assets, and has enough cash. Not in some backwards country so no China, Russia, India, Brasil etc even if on a London/US market. I also "double-up"but never "double-down" and I monitor resiliance to bad news, so that if an asset sprang back up after March that is now in my Golden list and I buy in crashes. Plus lots of patience. I allow myself one "commitment" investment at a time, and some do well and some do badly so I acknowledge that I cannot choose companies by any sort of logic to do with market position or business strategy.
|
|
cwah
Member of DD Central
Posts: 949
Likes: 468
|
Stocks
Jul 16, 2020 10:48:34 GMT
via mobile
Post by cwah on Jul 16, 2020 10:48:34 GMT
Interesting to see such a stratagy explained so simply, my similar
- Make a reasonable return ? 90% of the time. Reasonable for me is bare minimum 7% year on year (in a s@ t year) but averages out to 15 to 20% - Recover my book cost ? Maybe 90% of the time. Put my higher risk investments in taxable cash areas so as to maximise HMRC support of losses - Experience a multi-bagger ? Maybe 10% of the time. - 40 years in the game
I invest in assets where the SP has shown a general upward movement (10-30% year on year) for the last 5 years with very little variability. Has a simple story to tell that I can understand, not too much debt or "intangible" assets, and has enough cash. Not in some backwards country so no China, Russia, India, Brasil etc even if on a London/US market. I also "double-up"but never "double-down" and I monitor resiliance to bad news, so that if an asset sprang back up after March that is now in my Golden list and I buy in crashes. Plus lots of patience. I allow myself one "commitment" investment at a time, and some do well and some do badly so I acknowledge that I cannot choose companies by any sort of logic to do with market position or business strategy.
Are you buying fang now with the dip? Or is it still too high? I want to add a bit but still feel they are quite high
|
|
cwah
Member of DD Central
Posts: 949
Likes: 468
|
Stocks
Jul 16, 2020 12:01:56 GMT
via mobile
Post by cwah on Jul 16, 2020 12:01:56 GMT
Are you buying fang now with the dip? Or is it still too high? I want to add a bit but still feel they are quite high
What dip ? The dip was in March. No in march it was a crash!
|
|
|
Stocks
Jul 16, 2020 12:25:43 GMT
via mobile
cwah likes this
Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2020 12:25:43 GMT
Generally don't buy the dips, too short a time scale for me. I don't need to trade much anymore as my selection process doesn't account for dips and I can't time the market.
Presently own amzn and googl by chance but held adbe msft after/during the crash Not touching FB, bought and doubled my money on nkla, now sold.
I trade us though a sterling AC so paying for exchange rate drives me towards few trades if any, just too costly. Closed HL account as their overall charges are too high and their customer service is terrible.
|
|
cwah
Member of DD Central
Posts: 949
Likes: 468
|
Stocks
Jul 16, 2020 12:28:46 GMT
via mobile
Post by cwah on Jul 16, 2020 12:28:46 GMT
Generally don't buy the dips, too short a time scale for me. I don't need to trade much anymore as my selection process doesn't account for dips and I can't time the market. Presently own amzn and googl by chance but held adbe msft after/during the crash Not touching FB, bought and doubled my money on nkla, now sold. I trade us though a sterling AC so paying for exchange rate drives me towards few trades if any, just too costly. Closed HL account as their overall charges are too high and their customer service is terrible. I use IB and trading212 for my ISA. They are quite good
|
|
|
Stocks
Jul 16, 2020 12:31:14 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2020 12:31:14 GMT
- Recover my book cost ? Maybe 90% of the time. Put my higher risk investments in taxable cash areas so as to maximise HMRC support of losses - Experience a multi-bagger ? Maybe 10% of the time. @bobo I suppose it's worth pointing out these two measures are largely factors of portfolio size and investment style. The larger the portfolio the fewer the number of companies with legs you're likely to hold. And whether you are growth or income tilted, and how agressive your selection is.
You mentioned 20 assets, I'm more than double that. Hence my more modest percentages.
I don't focus on growth or income, it makes little difference to me, you pay your taxes to get roads, hospitals, police. I like roads, hospitals and the police. Paying for them directly they would be more expensive. Not sure size and legs matter, there are a lot of great assets out there that hit my specification, I just use evolution to knock them out. 5 years ago I started with 45. Everything is driven by my strategy and operating tools because I'm lazy.
|
|
cwah
Member of DD Central
Posts: 949
Likes: 468
|
Stocks
Jul 16, 2020 12:49:27 GMT
via mobile
Post by cwah on Jul 16, 2020 12:49:27 GMT
What does recover book cost mean? Is it price of stock going down? What does it have to do with book?
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2020 13:43:40 GMT
Not sure size and legs matter
Sure it does, take some of the things I bought in March for example. I bought them because an unmissable value gap opened up.
They'll have enough legs to bring fill the March gap, and maybe 10-20% beyond that, but something like the AstraZeneca I bought is never going to have the legs to become a multi-bagger (at least not on the timeframe I plan to hold it, a few decades might be another matter).
we will have to agree to disagree.
March was just a special dream-time like 2008
|
|
cwah
Member of DD Central
Posts: 949
Likes: 468
|
Post by cwah on Jul 16, 2020 13:44:11 GMT
What does recover book cost mean? Is it price of stock going down? What does it have to do with book? Book cost = total consideration (asset + commission) Therefore "recover book cost" means profit ≥ total consideration (a.k.a. doubling your money, plus a bit for the original commission paid) As for why its called book cost ? Well, its the original cost when it was placed on your book. Book being an alternative word for portfolio. But book (or similar terms, e.g. page) tend to be the preferred terminology rather than portfolio ... for whatever reason, I guess it dates back to the pre-technology days where you wrote things down rather than watch screens. Thanks for the detailed explanation. I'd just say recover my stock cost lol. But yeah book cost seems more accurate
|
|
|
Stocks
Jul 16, 2020 15:40:31 GMT
Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2020 15:40:31 GMT
No that is fine, I just don't see size or legs as anywhere on my road map. Except perhaps Funds where I focus on Funds that have fewer than 50 different assets in the pot.
I think the great thing is we have different strategies but can still make good money and equally advise others on the same core values, ain't that grand?
|
|
|
Stocks
Aug 5, 2020 9:26:33 GMT
Post by elephantrosie on Aug 5, 2020 9:26:33 GMT
What do gurus here think of INTC?
|
|
iRobot
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,665
Likes: 2,458
|
Post by iRobot on Aug 5, 2020 10:09:01 GMT
What do gurus here think of INTC? In terms of: - trading it?
- investing in it?
- likely performance relative to its historical performance?
- likely performance relative to its peers?
- likely performance relative to the Nasdaq 100?
- likely performance relative to the S&P 500?
Or are you thinking of buying a new computer?
ps: NOT a guru! (In case you hadn't guessed!)
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2020 12:54:55 GMT
Intel has managed to drag its SP from $30 to $49 in 5 years. So an annual SP growth rate of 10%. Note that little companies like Microsoft have managed $46 to $213 or 35% each year. Looking at the noise of the SP it is obvious that MSFT has far less noise so certainly if you like to sleep at night I'd choose MSFT.
If you are not an investor but a gambler. You would want to know more about the core business. My big concern is that Intel needs to demonstrate it is a significantly better business than its competitors (whose products are beginning to catch up but whose cost base is lower). I suspect it isn't.
Timing, I'm useless at timing, but if I were that sort of person the timing is good for you to buy. I'd buy sub 49 and sell on the top side of 62 so making 26% in 6 months if everything goes right or not if things go wrong.
My problem is still that a consistent 35% a year beats a possible 26% in a possible 6 months in my mind.
We also have to factor in what disasters trump will put on the price November 4 to January 4
|
|