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Post by notascooby on Aug 29, 2019 14:05:19 GMT
It seems the opinions are divided on whether P2P is the worst strategy ever. The diversifying risk and platform school have a valid and mostly tested method. Platform risk is something that is in investors minds. I expect if you are spread out enough, platform risk will be reduced. Even so, I sense a general withdrawing from P2P due to general economic uncertainty and the most recent series of unfortunate events.
There were some early adopters who sold their loans on and made a profit. I recall the posts eighteen months ago when the ability to flip loans fell off. Investors became resigned to keeping loans to maturity or failure and expressed this on these boards.
As regards diversifying risk, that seems to me to have become difficult. Looking at the availability of loans, it mostly appears to be the same type of property venture at higher interest. Not much bling lending, not much industrial upgrade lending. Just lots and lots of badly valued higher interest property projects.
For my tuppence worth, something that might help is really strict loan assessment by the platforms including disclosing borrowers personal details on the portals. Some platforms stopped doing this claiming GDPR. That seemed fallacious de-risking behaviour to me and I used to work with data protection every day. I would also consider moderating the T&C term where lenders agree not to sue the borrower in their own name or take action against surveyors. MT does both, although AC seems only to do the first (perhaps I misread). The T&C of every platform emphasise at length how they are simply intermediaries and facilitators. Their information is "not to be relied on" when making decisions. The truth is, we do rely on that information. It is sometimes the only information we get unless some kind poster has knowledge they share. As individuals we should have some form of redress against being mislead by borrowers and surveyors.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Aug 29, 2019 20:08:23 GMT
.... The truth is, we do rely on that information. It is sometimes the only information we get unless some kind poster has knowledge they share. As individuals we should have some form of redress against being mislead by borrowers and surveyors. Yes. Perhaps the FCA needs to address this rather than their blaming the investor. The FCA locking out certain investors in new rules won't help the sector as a whole, as it doesn't deal with the problem you raise and problems others have raised. It needs better regulation, not investors locked out.
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sd2
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Post by sd2 on Sept 17, 2019 11:51:43 GMT
p2p has been very profitable up to now. Although most are only a year old.
I was in funding circle near the start making 15.7% annualized return on mainly A+ loans.
Sniping at the end of the auctions with large loans. Then selling most on the secondary market. I was using money from zero interest credit cards, so someone elses money to boot. If I remember correctly the credit card market turned against me, ie shorter periods on zero interest cards. Also it was very time consuming always making sure I was there at the end of the auctions.
Cant complain about shares either I have got out at the top twice by using the P U L method which guarantees you get out at the top.
As I understand it the lower the interest rate the lower the risk, the higher the interest the higher the risk?
If you had money in lendy or collateral you have only yourself to blame.
Kufflink, assertz capital and growth street all businesses type loans, the greatest risk in a recession.
I am now out of growth street total return 9.3% Including bonus.
Kufflink about £1,000 left in never had a lot in to begin with. Got 35% on my original £500 investment. £100 for using a refer a friend link and £75 from the refer.
Assertz capital £9,000 will remove most after the 6th. Leaving £2,000 in for the £100 bonus. A bit late joining assertz.
I will stay with ratesetter I will expect some reduction in returns in a recession but not losses. Note I was there for the mad rooling market interest rates!!
Lending works £2,000 £50 bonus and 6.5 %....forget about it let it roll.
Unbolted at the moment running it down. A bit uncertain about the court case. Never got above £2,500 still putting some money into the big loans. What's not to like about ltv of 8% on forum auctions loans. Also may go back for the gold loans. Gold prices in a recession....up up and away plus supposed insurance I hope they have sufficient put options on the derivatives market?
Property partner €3,000. Well I won't vote to sell property at a loss. What happens to rental property in a recession??
Nothing more for property partner.
I do have an advantage over most of you on this site. I am poor relatively. I can take full advantage of the bonuses. They mean more to me than most people on this site!
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toast
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Post by toast on Sept 17, 2019 12:09:53 GMT
I have got out at the top twice by using the P U L method which guarantees you get out at the top. I'm sceptical. What's the P U L method? Googling that gives responses on a quite different subject!
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 17, 2019 12:23:59 GMT
p2p has been very profitable up to now. Although most are only a year old. I was in funding circle near the start making 15.7% annualized return on mainly A+ loans. Sniping at the end of the auctions with large loans. Then selling most on the secondary market. I was using money from zero interest credit cards, so someone elses money to boot. If I remember correctly the credit card market turned against me, ie shorter periods on zero interest cards. Also it was very time consuming always making sure I was there at the end of the auctions. Cant complain about shares either I have got out at the top twice by using the P U L method which guarantees you get out at the top.Obviously impossible, regardless of what the P U L method is.
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sd2
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Post by sd2 on Sept 17, 2019 12:27:08 GMT
p2p has been very profitable up to now. Although most are only a year old. I was in funding circle near the start making 15.7% annualized return on mainly A+ loans. Sniping at the end of the auctions with large loans. Then selling most on the secondary market. I was using money from zero interest credit cards, so someone elses money to boot. If I remember correctly the credit card market turned against me, ie shorter periods on zero interest cards. Also it was very time consuming always making sure I was there at the end of the auctions. Cant complain about shares either I have got out at the top twice by using the P U L method which guarantees you get out at the top.Obviously impossible, regardless of what the P U L method is. PURE UNADULTERATED LUCK what did you think it meant? PS I have edited that post
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ozboy
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Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
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Post by ozboy on Sept 17, 2019 18:08:47 GMT
"............. collateral you have only yourself to blame." Obviously, you know nothing about the Collateral debacle sd2. You can DD until the cows come home, most of us are very aware of and accept the Risks with higher returns, but you should never have to factor in "FCA Risk" as well. |
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sd2
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Post by sd2 on Sept 17, 2019 18:29:08 GMT
"............. collateral you have only yourself to blame." Obviously, you know nothing about the Collateral debacle sd2 . You can DD until the cows come home, most of us are very aware of and accept the Risks with higher returns, but you should never have to factor in "FCA Risk" as well. Maybe I was a touch harsh? I have dealt with FCA before. I complained about building society. I said they were lying her reply "building society and banks don't tell lies" staggering. But I stick with my higher the interest the higher the risk.
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Post by df on Sept 17, 2019 21:29:20 GMT
After a long period of diverse and occasionally risky, self investing.. p2p is going to be ( I pretty confidently estimate) my worst investment strategy of the lot... anyone of the same ilk? Edit.... and that includes crypto's.. I don't know, it depends on recoveries outcomes. I'm in Col and Lendy and have no idea what I'm likely to get back. Most of my FS loans are non-performing. Some funds are stuck in BM (incl. Col loans). Substantial proportion is stuck in GBBA1&Green. I'm also overexposed in NUL and Racing Cars on MT... Meanwhile, other platforms/accounts are performing well. If all of my currently non-performing funds turn into 100% crystallised loss p2p will be the the worst financial decision I've ever made.
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Post by martin44 on Sept 19, 2019 21:20:39 GMT
After a long period of diverse and occasionally risky, self investing.. p2p is going to be ( I pretty confidently estimate) my worst investment strategy of the lot... anyone of the same ilk? Edit.... and that includes crypto's.. I don't know, it depends on recoveries outcomes. I'm in Col and Lendy and have no idea what I'm likely to get back. Most of my FS loans are non-performing. Some funds are stuck in BM (incl. Col loans). Substantial proportion is stuck in GBBA1&Green. I'm also overexposed in NUL and Racing Cars on MT... Meanwhile, other platforms/accounts are performing well. If all of my currently non-performing funds turn into 100% crystallised loss p2p will be the the worst financial decision I've ever made. My exposure to lendy is worrying, its not a small amount, and even a 50% recovery will be hard to swallow, i got out of all the rest (almost, still a smallish exposure in MT.. which is dead in the water) overall taking almost 3 years interest into account, breaking even will be a big result and a small sigh of relief. 
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Sept 20, 2019 13:04:38 GMT
p2p has been very profitable up to now. Although most are only a year old. I was in funding circle near the start making 15.7% annualized return on mainly A+ loans. Sniping at the end of the auctions with large loans. Then selling most on the secondary market. I was using money from zero interest credit cards, so someone elses money to boot. If I remember correctly the credit card market turned against me, ie shorter periods on zero interest cards. Also it was very time consuming always making sure I was there at the end of the auctions. Cant complain about shares either I have got out at the top twice by using the P U L method which guarantees you get out at the top. As I understand it the lower the interest rate the lower the risk, the higher the interest the higher the risk? If you had money in lendy or collateral you have only yourself to blame. Kufflink, assertz capital and growth street all businesses type loans, the greatest risk in a recession. I am now out of growth street total return 9.3% Including bonus. Kufflink about £1,000 left in never had a lot in to begin with. Got 35% on my original £500 investment. £100 for using a refer a friend link and £75 from the refer. Assertz capital £9,000 will remove most after the 6th. Leaving £2,000 in for the £100 bonus. A bit late joining assertz. I will stay with ratesetter I will expect some reduction in returns in a recession but not losses. Note I was there for the mad rooling market interest rates!! Lending works £2,000 £50 bonus and 6.5 %....forget about it let it roll. Unbolted at the moment running it down. A bit uncertain about the court case. Never got above £2,500 still putting some money into the big loans. What's not to like about ltv of 8% on forum auctions loans. Also may go back for the gold loans. Gold prices in a recession....up up and away plus supposed insurance I hope they have sufficient put options on the derivatives market? Property partner €3,000. Well I won't vote to sell property at a loss. What happens to rental property in a recession?? Nothing more for property partner. I do have an advantage over most of you on this site. I am poor relatively. I can take full advantage of the bonuses. They mean more to me than most people on this site! why are "business-type loans" the greatest risk in a a recession? Two of those you mentioned are primarily property loans. I thought GS was invoice discounting. What about consumer debt? Are you implying that it's easier to chase a defaulted domestic borrower for a domestic-sized £amount than a business for a larger amount?
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Sept 20, 2019 13:18:08 GMT
p2p has been very profitable up to now. Although most are only a year old. I was in funding circle near the start making 15.7% annualized return on mainly A+ loans. Sniping at the end of the auctions with large loans. Then selling most on the secondary market. I was using money from zero interest credit cards, so someone elses money to boot. If I remember correctly the credit card market turned against me, ie shorter periods on zero interest cards. Also it was very time consuming always making sure I was there at the end of the auctions. Cant complain about shares either I have got out at the top twice by using the P U L method which guarantees you get out at the top.Obviously impossible, regardless of what the P U L method is. Nope, guaranteed lol. All we need now is a method to guarantee getting in at the bottom and we’ll all be billionaires. Timing market tops and bottoms is impossible. Buy and hold for the long term and you will beat the vast majority. I just chucked 30k into vanguard all world today. The genious in me knows it’s a bad time, markets are pricey, global economy is doomed but the experience in me knows that I know nothing and to stick to the plan (buy as often as possible whenever my cash allocation exceeds its allowance, then hold for a long time, forever if possible) The long term nature of equity investments means I sleep well at night even if a 50a%+ crash occurs. The short term chaos we see in P2P is stressful in comparison and ultimately I’m getting out and putting it all into equities.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Sept 20, 2019 14:22:53 GMT
Assetz Capital has been the best platform for me. Currently though my exposure in P2P is going to only ever be AC via its blackbox accounts (Access, not GBBA or property). It has attractive rates on the QAA inside a balance risk exposure. I like the monthly payments as well as the non-capital risk exposure (from a valuation standpoint) that bonds suffer from as of (well since 09 lets be honest).
The problem with Bonds to me is Q/A essientaly warps them into unbalance. (manipulating the valuations) My 2 cents is Central banks will use the lessons of Q/E to prevent recessions. (even though deemed non critcal unlike the likes of 08) Because of this, Bonds are a subdued amount of my exposure like 5-10 percent, Peer to Peer is currently more than that for me (all in A/C). As we see, the ECB is following Q/E again, further distoring any bonds held in that currency.
QAA has been often a bed for my short term funds whilst money is cycled into long term Stock exposure.
Manually selecting loans was something I used to do in 2016 up until early 2018. Doing so after this date is deemed to risky, it is just too much time invested for such a small amount return (and usally negative as most replies on this forum seem to indicate.)
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bugs4me
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Post by bugs4me on Sept 21, 2019 8:56:16 GMT
Purely a personal opinion but I believe it all depends when you first got involved with P2P and to what extent financially. Those early days back in 2013ish when many platforms started and were 'honourable' and open seem to have been the most profitable times for investors.
I've been gradually exiting the P2P market now for the past 18 months or so and am just stuck with a few zombie loans - FS, MT, LY and yes COL. I now consider any further repayments from these platforms as being a bonus and if there are no further repayments then my P2P IRR will finish up at 5.70%. I consider myself lucky.
My best performing platform was AC at 11.95% although I exited that platform when AH left. Pleased I did as platform transparency seems to have evaporated of late and nope, I do not subscribe to the 'we know what's best for you' attitude adopted by many platforms including it would appear AC as well. It's lenders hard earned cash at stake and many a platform would do well to remember that but the penny still hasn't dropped.
They continue to 'hide' behind the incompetent FCA authorisation badge. Well a fat lot of good the FCA being involved did. If anything their involvement just made things worse. The 'light touch' involvement by the FCA which in my book translates to 'we don't know what we're doing' but like the fees just about sums them up. As someone once posted - the brightest and best they are definitely not - being staffed by failures from the commercial sector.
Hence confidence in P2P in general is at an all time low and I suspect many a platform will conveniently enter administration during the next year or two once investor appetite finally dries up. It will then be the responsibility of the administrators to clear up those convenient 'can-kicked' loans with again lenders being the ultimate looser.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Sept 22, 2019 14:37:48 GMT
Its why my investible capital remains 100% shares 0% P2P (the only things remaining in P2P are, like bugs4me a few zombie loans which I can't wait to be able to dispose of in any fashion, I'm beyond carign about any value).
Out of interest, aside from the individual zombie loans, have you also forsworn any of the currently more popular collective accounts e.g. Assetz QAA, Ratesetter, LendingWorks? If so, do you believe these are equally doomed?
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